[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 8 22:05:45 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 082206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082204 
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-082300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LOWER MI/CENTRAL AND SRN WI/NERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 082204Z - 082300Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...UNTIL 01-02Z...FROM
NERN IA INTO CENTRAL/SRN WI AND PARTS OF LOWER MI.  THE EXPECTED
SHORT DURATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH
ISSUANCE.

LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NRN LOWER MI WSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL WI TO FAR SE MN AND FAR NRN
IA...WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI WSWWD
THROUGH FAR SRN WI TO NRN IA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
BOTH BOUNDARIES WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED ACROSS NERN IA
AND ERN WI...NEAR MKE AND AROUND GRB.  VEERED SURFACE WINDS TO WLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARE LIMITING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  THUS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONT /NEAR GRB/ APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AS THE FRONT
MOVED INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THEN QUICKLY UNDERCUT
THE UPDRAFTS...RESULTING IN MAINLY A HAIL THREAT.

STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION IS LOCATED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH AREA WIND PROFILER DATA
INDICATING WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH.  DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...DEEP WLY WINDS WITHIN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL.

..PETERS.. 09/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

44398961 44458825 44428689 44368520 44318464 43538442
42798503 42478626 42478776 42508942 42429068 42489237
42409340 42939359 43249353 43539185 44109033 

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