[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 051918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051918 
TXZ000-NMZ000-052115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT TUE SEP 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL...TX S
PLAINS...NERN AND ECNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 051918Z - 052115Z

LATEST VSBL SATL SHOWS THAT MDT CU WERE BEGINNING TO SPROUT INTO
ISOLD CB/S ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FROM EXTREME NERN
NM SEWD INTO THE FAR WRN PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL.  CU WERE ALSO NOTED
ALONG THE CREST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEG F
ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C
PER KM.  RESULTANT MLCAPES WERE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND WITH
CONTINUED HEATING...INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SUPPORT
TSTMS. DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY TEND TO KEEP COVERAGE IN THE
ISOLD-WDLY SCT RANGE AND UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO GROW SLOWLY.  

TCU PROFILER-DERIVED HODOGRAPH SHOWS A STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE IN
THE LOWEST 6KM...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED TO 25 KTS IN THE
5-6KM LAYER...BOOSTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE. 
THUS...ANY TSTM THAT CAN MANAGE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED COULD PRODUCE
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT
DEVIATE TO THE S AND SW...OR RIGHT OF THE NWLY MEAN FLOW.  

ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SWD INTO ECNTRL NM AND THE TX S PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTN WITH CONTINUED ISOLD DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS.
THE ANTICIPATED ISOLD COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH...HOWEVER.

..RACY.. 09/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

36620310 35550234 34800196 33540169 33100181 33250257
33910319 35760545 36910478 

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