[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Sep 5 18:21:48 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 051823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051822 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-052015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT TUE SEP 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL LOWER MI...WRN/CENTRAL IND AND
ERN/SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 051822Z - 052015Z

ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER
SCENTRAL/SWRN MI SWWD INTO ECENTRAL IL/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND BEGIN POSING A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL /HRLY RATES OVER 1 INCH/.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL TSTMS WERE
DEVELOPING FROM NEAR AZO SWWD TO NEAR DNV ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH.
OTHER TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER
SERN IL. 17Z SFC CONDITIONS INPUT INTO THE 12Z ILX SOUNDING
INDICATED AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5 DEG C/KM/. GIVEN RELATIVELY LITTLE MID LEVEL
FLOW OVER MOST OF THE REGION /UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW/ WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS /SOUTH LESS
THAN 10 KTS/ PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CELL TRAINING AND
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH/HR.

THIS IS THE FIRST OPERATIONAL PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED BY SPC AT THE NEW
NATIONAL WEATHER CENTER BUILDING. A BIG THANK YOU TO EVERYONE WHO
HAS HELPED WITH THIS TRANSITION.

..CROSBIE.. 09/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

42288545 41928660 41468772 40808813 40318834 39828864
39438879 38928900 38698882 38598834 38888744 39348677
40078594 40578549 41288496 41578484 41988475 

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