[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 022014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022014 
AZZ000-022145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 022014Z - 022145Z

AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AZ...STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE FROM SWRN AZ EXTENDING
NWD INTO CNTRL AZ AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY EXCEED 9.0
C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE MULTICELLS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HAIL
MAY ALSO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AZ WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEPER AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH.

..BROYLES.. 09/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

33191270 33441305 33911333 34441342 35151296 35711258
35941187 35811113 35331056 34621043 33961075 33411132
33201178 

WWWW