[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 011921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011920 
COZ000-012115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 011920Z - 012115Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN CO BY 21Z AND
SPREAD SEWD. SOME STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD INTO NERN CO NEAR GREELEY
AND FARTHER WWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE
SWD. SATELLITE DATA SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NERN
CO WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WWD MOVING DENSITY CURRENT. 
THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE COINCIDENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND THE DEWPOINT AT AKRON HAS INCREASED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES DURING THE PAST HOUR. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S E OF THE FRONT RANGE. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. AS THE CAP WEAKENS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN VICINITY OF SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO
WNWLY THROUGH 6 KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KT...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING AS THEY SPREAD
SEWD.

..DIAL.. 09/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

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