From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 1 02:19:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2006 22:19:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010221 KSZ000-COZ000-010345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0921 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 760... VALID 010221Z - 010345Z POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN KS PORTION OF WW THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS OF 0205Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A MATURE MCS WITH ASSOCIATED LINE END VORTEX FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY SWD TO KIOWA COUNTY CO WITH ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS OVER GREELEY...WICHITA AND LOGAN COUNTIES IN WRN KS. MODIFICATION OF 00Z DDC SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN KS INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STEADILY INCREASING...THOUGH AIR MASS STILL REMAINS POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. EVOLUTION OF LINE END VORTEX AND EXPANSION OF TRAILING PRECIPITATION REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAR ERN CO MCS MAY STILL SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS VIA ENHANCEMENT OF REAR INFLOW JET. AFOREMENTIONED MORE DISCRETE STORMS OVER WRN KS MAY TEND TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ INTENSIFIES...WITH THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY STORM CLUSTER OR MCS...OR DISCRETE PROPAGATION OF WRN MCS TO A NEW DOWNSTREAM POSITION. REGARDLESS OF EVOLUTION...ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO MOVE/DEVELOP MORE SEWD WITH TIME TOWARD GCK/DDC WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE-850 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM ROOKS COUNTY SEWD TO RICE COUNTY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WELL ALONG ERN EDGE OF LLJ WITH COMPLEX PROPAGATING SEWD. HERE TOO...ISOLATED AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD.. 09/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB... 38770245 39420238 39770218 39770134 39270074 38080054 37810130 37820193 38000231 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 1 03:57:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2006 23:57:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010359 NCZ000-010530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 761... VALID 010359Z - 010530Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY LAND FALLING SUPERCELLS. AS OF 0340Z...MOREHEAD CITY RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROXIMATELY 20 S ILM WITH A GENERAL MOVEMENT OF 190/8 KTS. AS ANTICIPATED...WARM FRONT INITIALLY OFFSHORE...HAS PIVOTED NWWD AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR CIRCULATION CENTER NEWD ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO 30-40 ESE ECG. CURRENTLY...MOST ACTIVE FEEDER BAND /WITH EMBEDDED TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS/ EXTENDS FROM NEAR AND W OF OAJ SEWD TO 100 ESE ILM. MODIFICATION OF RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FOR SURFACE CONDITIONS NEAR AND E OF WARM FRONT YIELDS SBCAPES OF 300-500 J/KG WITHIN VERY MOIST VERTICAL PROFILE WITH PW/S OF 2.5 INCHES. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LOW TO MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE SUSTENANCE WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-450 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN LARGER CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM NEAR OR JUST W OF WARM FRONT EWD INTO COMPARATIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..MEAD.. 09/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... 34177773 34647785 35567734 36307659 36417602 36307558 35947519 34677562 33847668 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 1 06:54:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 01 Sep 2006 02:54:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010655 NCZ000-VAZ000-010900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC...EXTREME SERN VA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 761... VALID 010655Z - 010900Z REPLACEMENT WW IS EXPECTED BEFORE SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION OF WW 761. TS ERNESTO HAS MOVED INLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD ACROSS ERN NC COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...PER NHC FCST. AS THIS OCCURS...FAVORABLE STRENGTHENING OF GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ABOVE SFC ACROSS SERN VA AND NERN NC...NE OF TS CENTER. PRIMARY SUPERCELL-PRODUCING SPIRAL BAND SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS ALBEMARLE AND NERN PAMLICO SOUND REGION DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS...THOUGH MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY MOVE ONSHORE FROM OUTER BANKS TO NEAR VA BORDER. 6Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT AND COLLOCATED WIND SHIFT LINE FROM OAJ NEWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS JONES...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...THEN ENEWD ACROSS WASHINGTON/TYRRELL COUNTIES NC AND ERN ALBEMARLE SOUND...CROSSING COAST NEAR CURRITUCK/DARE COUNTY LINE. PRIND FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NERN NC AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN VA...BENEATH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT. HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF FRONT WHERE SFC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY BACKED...BUT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO ITS E IN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR AS WELL. 0-1 KM SRH ACROSS NERN NC SHOULD INCREASE TO AOA 500 J/KG AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR LENGTHENS. FRONT IS A BUOYANCY-LIMITING TYPE...WITH TORNADO PROBABILITIES DROPPING GREATLY FROM E-W INTO THE COOLER AIR. ALTHOUGH THE E-W THETAE DROP THROUGH FRONT IS SUBTLE...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE SBCAPE AND GREATLY INCREASE CINH BENEATH WEAK/MOIST-ADIABATIC DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE TORNADO RISK WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO LOCATION OF MARINE AIR -- ALONG AND E OF FRONT. ..EDWARDS.. 09/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 34317709 35137736 35547781 36747659 37047584 36837551 36247542 35827517 35177522 34897538 34827583 34447623 34267646 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 1 11:43:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 01 Sep 2006 07:43:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011145 VAZ000-NCZ000-011345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NC...SERN VA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 762... VALID 011145Z - 011345Z SRN PORTIONS WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM S-N...AND THREAT APPEARS TO BE GETTING MORE QUESTIONABLE IN NWRN SECTIONS OF WW...W OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT FROM CYCLONE CENTER NEWD ACROSS BERTIE COUNTY...THROUGH ECG...AND OVER NRN BEACHES OF CURRITUCK COUNTY...THEN ENEWD TO ROUGHLY 15 NW OF BUOY 44014. PRIMARY CONVERGENCE BAND AS OF 1130Z EXTENDS FROM JUST OFFSHORE VA BEACH...SWD ACROSS ERN-MOST REACHES OF DARE COUNTY IN OUTER BANKS. NWD FRONTAL MOTION OVER LAND WILL BE SLOWER THAN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF TS CENTER...AND MAY BARELY BRING OPTIMALLY BUOYANT MARINE SECTOR INLAND OVER SERN VA...IF AT ALL. SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT WAS ANALYZED FROM TS CENTER ESEWD ACROSS BEAUFORT COUNTY AND SRN PAMLICO SOUND. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SFC-BASED MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE BETWEEN FRONT AND TROUGH...E THROUGH NE OF CENTER...WHERE 400-700 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH MAY JUXTAPOSE WITH SIMILAR VALUES OF SBCAPE. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH WITH INWARD EXTENT FROM CONVERGENCE BAND BECAUSE OF SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR AND MORE NEBULOUS CONVECTIVE MODE...AS OPPOSED TO STRONG LIFT AND RELATIVELY DISCRETE STRUCTURES CHARACTERIZING ACTIVITY IN SPIRAL BAND. FARTHER S...FROM SFC TROUGH SWD...TORNADO POTENTIAL DIMINISHES MARKEDLY BECAUSE OF WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR...AS WELL AS ROBUST LOW LEVEL DRY SLOT AND CAA INTRUDING IN INNER SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS DRYING/COOLING...ALSO EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSIS...WILL ADVANCE INTO ERN SEMICIRCLE FASTER THAN WARM FRONTAL MOTION...LEADING TO BAROCLINIC OCCLUSION PROCESS AT SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 09/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 34957580 36137631 36807717 37847648 37957527 37847491 36757560 35697513 34937527 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 1 16:28:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 01 Sep 2006 12:28:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011631 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011630 VAZ000-011800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1923 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN NC INTO SERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 762... VALID 011630Z - 011800Z THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN VA...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL. AN ADDITIONAL WW BEYOND 18Z IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED OVER NERN NC MOVING IN A GENERAL NWD DIRECTION. BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE N AND E OF THE CENTER...AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEATING. VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING REMAINS WITH INLAND CONVECTION. AS THE CENTER MOVES NWD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NWD EXTENT INTO SERN VA. THIS SUGGESTS OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 09/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ... 36587588 36627675 37507690 37827624 37617560 37097578 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 1 19:19:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 01 Sep 2006 15:19:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011920 COZ000-012115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 011920Z - 012115Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN CO BY 21Z AND SPREAD SEWD. SOME STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD INTO NERN CO NEAR GREELEY AND FARTHER WWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD. SATELLITE DATA SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NERN CO WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WWD MOVING DENSITY CURRENT. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE COINCIDENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE DEWPOINT AT AKRON HAS INCREASED A COUPLE OF DEGREES DURING THE PAST HOUR. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S E OF THE FRONT RANGE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. AS THE CAP WEAKENS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN VICINITY OF SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL FLOW MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WNWLY THROUGH 6 KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING AS THEY SPREAD SEWD. ..DIAL.. 09/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38900236 38300283 38130396 40200528 40400423 40540340 40610258 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 2 00:30:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 01 Sep 2006 20:30:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020032 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 763... VALID 020032Z - 020200Z POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02-03Z ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. EVOLUTION OF AN MCS HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WITH LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM GUST FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25 W ITR TO 35 SE PUB AS OF 0020Z. THE GENERAL SYSTEM MOVEMENT IS 310/20-25 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CELLS CURRENTLY OVER SRN LINCOLN AND ERN PUEBLO COUNTIES. AIR MASS OVER E-CNTRL INTO SERN CO REMAINS RELATIVELY COOL /70-75F/ OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING CIRRUS BLOW-OFF WHICH IS LIMITING MLCAPES TO 500-1000 J/KG /PER 00Z DDC SOUNDING/. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 09/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37340478 38100408 38710317 38940263 38780210 37950196 37200249 36800324 36690404 36890448 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 2 18:43:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 02 Sep 2006 14:43:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021845 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021845 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-022015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL IA...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 021845Z - 022015Z AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN IA AND SRN MN...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A MOIST AXIS ORIENTED SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN IA AND SRN MN WHERE SBCAPES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES EWD INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS DECREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP AND ANY HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 41429272 41289387 41749415 42879458 43919488 44759500 45149421 44969298 44509218 43289221 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 2 20:13:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 02 Sep 2006 16:13:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022014 AZZ000-022145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 022014Z - 022145Z AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AZ...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE FROM SWRN AZ EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL AZ AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY EXCEED 9.0 C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE MULTICELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AZ WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 33191270 33441305 33911333 34441342 35151296 35711258 35941187 35811113 35331056 34621043 33961075 33411132 33201178 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 2 22:36:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 02 Sep 2006 18:36:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022238 AZZ000-CAZ000-030115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA...SWRN/CNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 022238Z - 030115Z DOWNBURST WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLOW MOVING AND POORLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN CA AND CNTRL/SWRN AZ INTO THE EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST HOUR...SEVERAL INTENSE STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES IN SRN CA...AS WELL AS YUMA AND MARICOPA COUNTIES IN SWRN AZ. DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS RESULTING IN THIS DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE WEAK CLOUD-BEARING FLOW AND SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION...RELATIVELY STRONGER FLOW IN THE 300MB TO 250MB LAYER WAS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT AS WELL AS EXHAUST FOR THE CONVECTION. DESPITE WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION...LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50KT...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...MAY BE PRODUCED BY ONGOING ACTIVITY. STORM MERGERS AND UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT...EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK FORCING/FLOW...COULD ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN IN SOME AREAS AND BLOWING DUST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF SUCH MERGERS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES A POOL OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WAS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PULSE/MULTICELL ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AROUND THIS POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 09/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 33571174 33091155 32001282 32271377 32541525 32751604 33081636 33481630 33971561 34351468 34731343 34841282 34591248 34001200 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 3 19:26:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 03 Sep 2006 15:26:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031927 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT SUN SEP 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN MN...NERN NEB/NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 031927Z - 032030Z ...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN NEB INTO MN... UPPER LOW IS CLEARLY DEFINED OVER EXTREME NWRN IA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS AIDED CONVECTION BENEATH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS H5 TEMPS ARE ROUGHLY -20C BENEATH THIS FEATURE WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS GENERATED A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN PERIPHERY FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO IA WHERE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. DOWNSTREAM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN THICKER WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS FROM SWRN WI INTO CNTRL MN. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP WITHIN THIS MORE MOIST PLUME...A FEW STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN INTO CNTRL MN. INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO WEAK TO WARRANT MORE THAN SMALL-MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. ..DARROW.. 09/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42369855 47199587 44208913 41149063 40879657 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 4 16:58:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 04 Sep 2006 12:58:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041659 ILZ000-WIZ000-041830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT MON SEP 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN/SCNTRL WI AND NRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 041659Z - 041830Z 16Z SFC ANALYSIS/HIGH-RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CONVERGENCE ZONE ARCING FROM CNTRL IA THROUGH SWRN WI...THEN SWD ACROSS NWRN IL. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SATL SUGGESTED THAT BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXIST AND SUFFICIENT INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM 2-4 MORE DEGREES F AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTN. H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 16-18 DEG C ATOP RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLD STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NRN IL AND SRN WI WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE BACKED TO A MORE ELY DIRECTION ALONG/N OF THE ARCING CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS ACROSS EXTREME NRN IL AND SRN WI MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY THE NUMBER AND SPACING OF THE STORMS THAT INITIATE. HERE...UPDRAFTS MAY BE SHORTER LIVED AND WEAKER AS UPDRAFT-DOWNDRAFT INTERFACES ARE CLOSELY SPACED. TSTMS THAT DEVELOP FARTHER S IN NRN/CNTRL IL WILL BE POTENTIALLY MORE DISCRETE AND...THUS...LONGER-LIVED AND STRONGER. ..RACY.. 09/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 40509070 41808974 42319023 42629063 42999051 43118981 42928916 42148804 41048826 40178937 40199028 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 4 19:12:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 04 Sep 2006 15:12:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041914 CAZ000-042115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CDT MON SEP 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 041914Z - 042115Z GOES SATL SOUNDER SUGGESTS THAT 1.50-1.75 INCH PWAT VALUES WERE ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF SWRN AZ INTO SRN CA THIS AFTN. STRONG HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SBCAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. NASCENT CB/S WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE CREST OF THE SRN CA MOUNTAINS FROM SRN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SWD TO ERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND ARE COINCIDENT WITH GENTLE ELY UPSLOPE FLOW. TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE SWWD INTO THE INLAND VLYS OF SRN CA THROUGH LATE AFTN. THE HIGH PWATS IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN/DEVELOP VCNTY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE ZONES. RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR PSBL ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 09/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX... 32561687 32921696 33271715 34001718 34321696 33491658 32611659 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 5 18:21:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 05 Sep 2006 14:21:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051822 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-052015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1932 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT TUE SEP 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL LOWER MI...WRN/CENTRAL IND AND ERN/SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 051822Z - 052015Z ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL/SWRN MI SWWD INTO ECENTRAL IL/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND BEGIN POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL /HRLY RATES OVER 1 INCH/. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM NEAR AZO SWWD TO NEAR DNV ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH. OTHER TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER SERN IL. 17Z SFC CONDITIONS INPUT INTO THE 12Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5 DEG C/KM/. GIVEN RELATIVELY LITTLE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER MOST OF THE REGION /UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW/ WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS /SOUTH LESS THAN 10 KTS/ PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CELL TRAINING AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH/HR. THIS IS THE FIRST OPERATIONAL PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED BY SPC AT THE NEW NATIONAL WEATHER CENTER BUILDING. A BIG THANK YOU TO EVERYONE WHO HAS HELPED WITH THIS TRANSITION. ..CROSBIE.. 09/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 42288545 41928660 41468772 40808813 40318834 39828864 39438879 38928900 38698882 38598834 38888744 39348677 40078594 40578549 41288496 41578484 41988475 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 5 19:16:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 05 Sep 2006 15:16:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051918 TXZ000-NMZ000-052115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT TUE SEP 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL...TX S PLAINS...NERN AND ECNTRL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 051918Z - 052115Z LATEST VSBL SATL SHOWS THAT MDT CU WERE BEGINNING TO SPROUT INTO ISOLD CB/S ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FROM EXTREME NERN NM SEWD INTO THE FAR WRN PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL. CU WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG THE CREST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEG F ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C PER KM. RESULTANT MLCAPES WERE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND WITH CONTINUED HEATING...INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SUPPORT TSTMS. DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY TEND TO KEEP COVERAGE IN THE ISOLD-WDLY SCT RANGE AND UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO GROW SLOWLY. TCU PROFILER-DERIVED HODOGRAPH SHOWS A STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 6KM...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED TO 25 KTS IN THE 5-6KM LAYER...BOOSTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE. THUS...ANY TSTM THAT CAN MANAGE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT DEVIATE TO THE S AND SW...OR RIGHT OF THE NWLY MEAN FLOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SWD INTO ECNTRL NM AND THE TX S PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN WITH CONTINUED ISOLD DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS. THE ANTICIPATED ISOLD COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH...HOWEVER. ..RACY.. 09/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 36620310 35550234 34800196 33540169 33100181 33250257 33910319 35760545 36910478 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 8 06:35:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 08 Sep 2006 02:35:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 080637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080637 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-080830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1946 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 AM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV...ERN CA...WRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 080637Z - 080830Z ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS OCCURRED WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLIER AND LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RELATIVELY LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SUGGESTS A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY. LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STARTED EARLIER ACROSS SRN NV AND WILL MOVE INTO LA PAZ AND SWRN YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN AZ SHORTLY. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AND DEVELOP INTO NWRN MARICOPA COUNTY AZ THROUGH 08Z. GREATER WIND THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS MOVING INTO NRN LA PAZ COUNTY WHERE INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE MAINTAINING AN INTENSE UPDRAFT IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. THIS PARTICULAR CELL HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BOW AND HIGHER REFLECTIVITY IS FAVORABLY ORIENTED WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW...THUS DIRECTING STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ATOP TRAILING COLD POOL FROM LAKE HAVASU CITY NNWWD TO LAS VEGAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN PARTIALLY OVERTURNED FROM PRIOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 09/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 34431333 34071270 33721295 33621334 33691403 34091473 34481514 35421573 36331606 36511598 35761537 35051489 34641436 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 8 17:26:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 08 Sep 2006 13:26:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 081729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081727 MIZ000-WIZ000-081930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 081727Z - 081930Z A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NRN UPPER MI AND ACROSS NRN LAKE HURON OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING FAR NRN LOWER MI EXTENDING WSWWD INTO CNTRL WI. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY IS INCREASING AND MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100O TO 1500 ACROSS LOWER MI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION GONE ACROSS LOWER MI AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY STEEP AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON MAKING HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 09/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX... 44608282 43848552 43398789 43598838 44028878 44958831 46048341 45358253  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 8 22:05:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 08 Sep 2006 18:05:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082204 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-082300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LOWER MI/CENTRAL AND SRN WI/NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 082204Z - 082300Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...UNTIL 01-02Z...FROM NERN IA INTO CENTRAL/SRN WI AND PARTS OF LOWER MI. THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN LOWER MI WSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL WI TO FAR SE MN AND FAR NRN IA...WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI WSWWD THROUGH FAR SRN WI TO NRN IA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED ACROSS NERN IA AND ERN WI...NEAR MKE AND AROUND GRB. VEERED SURFACE WINDS TO WLY IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARE LIMITING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THUS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT /NEAR GRB/ APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AS THE FRONT MOVED INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THEN QUICKLY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS...RESULTING IN MAINLY A HAIL THREAT. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION IS LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH AREA WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATING WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...DEEP WLY WINDS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL. ..PETERS.. 09/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 44398961 44458825 44428689 44368520 44318464 43538442 42798503 42478626 42478776 42508942 42429068 42489237 42409340 42939359 43249353 43539185 44109033 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 8 22:28:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 08 Sep 2006 18:28:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082229 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-090030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA/SRN NV/NW AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 082229Z - 090030Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS... LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN APPROACHING JET STREAK IN THE WAKE OF THE IMPULSE NOW ACROSS NW NM. SFC OBS ACROSS SRN CA INDICATE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING AROUND 15 DEGREES. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED ACROSS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH APPROACHES. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MID LEVEL ROTATION WITH STORM OVER SAN BERNARDINO CO. AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S. LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE MORE LIKELY WITH HIGH TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLD NATURE OF STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 09/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 33801390 33751619 35621682 36531492 36221231 34451266  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 9 07:24:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 09 Sep 2006 03:24:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 090727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090726 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-090930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 090726Z - 090930Z ISOLATED VIGOROUS TSTMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PARTS OF NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT EARLY TODAY. AREAL EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING SRN CA APPEARS TO BE ACTING ON VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CO RIVER VALLEY EARLY TODAY. RESULTING ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SRN MOHAVE COUNTY AZ...AS WELL AS WASHINGTON COUNTY UT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION... AND MODEST EFFECTIVE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 20-30KT...WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT STORM UPDRAFTS APPEAR POSSIBLE. GREATEST THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SEVERE HAIL OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY CELL MERGERS. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 09/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF... 37841389 37801291 36781242 34471174 33991245 34021370 34221458 36031464 37301456  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 9 17:11:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 09 Sep 2006 13:11:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091713 VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-091815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...NRN PA...WRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 091713Z - 091815Z AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN NY AND NRN PA...HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO FAR NRN NY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NY AND NRN PA. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. HOWEVER...A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED AND LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. ..BROYLES.. 09/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 42717306 41427436 40897675 40947800 41437853 42007830 42677551 43927474 44277381 43717274  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 9 18:48:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 09 Sep 2006 14:48:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091850 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091850 PAZ000-OHZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...NW PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091850Z - 092015Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN OH AND NW PA. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM LAKE ERIE TO FAR NRN IND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. WITH THE JET AXIS NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK NEAR THE FRONT SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY KEEP A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 09/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX... 40817995 40618226 40778412 41178444 41428428 41578382 41608283 41688053 41617976  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 9 19:12:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 09 Sep 2006 15:12:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091914 AZZ000-092115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 091914Z - 092115Z ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AZ. A WW SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED. MORNING CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA...LEAVING A WEST TO EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN ITS WAKE /PER VIS IMAGERY/. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTING AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY NOSING NEWD ALONG THE GILA RIVER VALLEY. WIND PROFILES IN THIS REGION ARE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...WITH MID-LEVEL WLYS OF 30 KTS OR GREATER CONFINED IN A NARROW ZONE FURTHER N PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...AMPLE INSTABILITY VIA STRONG SURFACE HEATING /SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ ACROSS THE SW DESERTS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 09/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 33210972 32671010 32451105 32301262 32571382 33521409 34311374 34501239 34341074 33970982 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 9 19:58:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 09 Sep 2006 15:58:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092000 KSZ000-092130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 092000Z - 092130Z HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A NNE TO SSW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCED ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR A MAXIMUM IN INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1200 TO 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP. AS A RESULT...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SFC HEATING...A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 09/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD... 37440114 39020064 39779986 39359902 37919973 37140007 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 10 19:02:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 10 Sep 2006 15:02:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101903 TXZ000-102000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 101903Z - 102000Z THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF SPS...MAY INTENSIFY AND ALSO DEVELOP WWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MONITORING AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AT 19Z...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WEST OF ADM TO 40 S OF SPS...AND THEN RECURVED BACK WNWWD TO A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NORTHEAST OF PVW. THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM 50 SW OF SPS TO 35 SW ADM...MOVING SEWD AT 20 KT. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP WWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ELY SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. THIS SHEAR ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION...WITH HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT COLD POOL AND SEWD PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY...THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE BGS-ABI-MWL AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..IMY.. 09/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 34490135 34180071 33600010 33559862 33649776 32349774 31989893 32200022 33050107 34180153  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 10 22:44:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 10 Sep 2006 18:44:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102246 KSZ000-NEZ000-102345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS .. EXTREME SE NE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 102246Z - 102345Z SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST KS POSING A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED NW TO SE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS IN AN AREA WITH MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 25 KTS AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE SUPPORTED STORM ROTATION AND SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL OF UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER. MEDIOCRE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS POSSIBLE AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT STORMS THAT MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ..SCHNEIDER.. 09/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39939680 40169631 40019577 39709526 39439508 39009504 38789534 38849586 39299634 39559656 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 10 23:27:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 10 Sep 2006 19:27:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102329 TXZ000-OKZ000-110030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 765... VALID 102329Z - 110030Z ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SURGE A FEW MILES AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS FROM GARZA TO HASKELL COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...SERN PORTIONS OF WW HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER ACTIVITY OVER NCNTRL TX. NEW UPDRAFTS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT OVERALL TRENDS SHOULD DECREASE...ESPECIALLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 09/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 34110233 34479860 32289846 32340237 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 12 22:34:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2006 18:34:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122236 NMZ000-AZZ000-130000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ...SWRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 122236Z - 130000Z UPPER LOW ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER...SW OF GBN WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS EVENING. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NRN OCCIDENTAL RANGE...JUST SOUTH OF THE AZ BORDER. SLY FLOW AT 500MB IS A BIT STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION SO CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD INTO SERN AZ WHERE ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IS NOTED. OTHER STORMS...BUT LESS SHEARED...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SWRN NM. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAIN MAY ULTIMATELY BE THE GREATEST THREAT AS THESE STORMS TRAIN NWD. ..DARROW.. 09/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC... 31201092 31661083 32071117 33170994 33200896 32540833 31670800  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 19 13:57:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 19 Sep 2006 09:57:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191356 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-191530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN GA AND THE CNTRL/ERN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 191356Z - 191530Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ORGANIZED...BOWING MCS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 1345Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF A BOWING MCS FROM DALE COUNTY IN SERN AL TO BAY COUNTY IN THE FL PNHDL MOVING 270/30 KTS. 12Z TLH SOUNDING INDICATED THAT AMBIENT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH PW VALUES OF 2.1 INCHES AND RESULTANT MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2500 J/KG. THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...PER 12Z RAOBS AND CURRENT VWPS. STILL THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST DUE TO WATER LOADING EFFECTS AND COLD POOL ORGANIZATION ALONG CREST OF BOW. ..MEAD.. 09/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 31248560 31458511 31508400 31288333 30848320 30408325 29948364 29588445 29588503 29848564 30128582 30518565 30738556 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 20 20:04:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 20 Sep 2006 16:04:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202005 COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1989 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN NM...EXTREME NERN AZ...WRN CO...SWRN WY...CENTRAL/ERN UT. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 202005Z - 202230Z CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z ACROSS BROAD SWATH FROM 4-CORNERS AREA NWD TOWARD SWRN WY. SEVERAL BANDS OF ASCENT ARE EVIDENT AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN UT. ONE OF THEM IS MANIFEST AS BROAD AREA OF PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED/STRENGTHENING TSTMS...FROM ERN MOFFAT COUNTY COL SSWWD ACROSS GJT AREA TO 4-CORNERS...BECOMING NARROWER FARTHER SW INTO N-CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY AZ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD OVER NWRN NM...REMAINDER WRN CO...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS SWRN WY. NEXT BAND TO ITS W CONTAINS STRENGTHENING TSTMS FROM VEL SWWD TO WAYNE COUNTY UT...THEN DISCONTINUOUS SWWD TO NEAR PGA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER BUOYANCY ARE FCST TO INCREASE CONCURRENTLY AHEAD OF EACH BAND...AS INSOLATION CONTINUES IN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AREAS...AND AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER VORTEX. INITIAL BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH NARROW AREA OF HEATED/ELEVATED TERRAIN WITH UP TO 200 J/KG MLCAPE...BETWEEN CURRENT POSITION AND SWATH OF DRIER SFC AIR BEGINNING AROUND AN EGE...ASE...GUC...50 E FMN LINE. THEREAFTER ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN BECAUSE AIR MASS BECOMES TOO DRY TO SUSTAIN DEEP BUOYANCY. DAMAGING WIND IS MAIN THREAT. SECOND BAND -- CORRESPONDING CLOSELY TO SFC COLD FRONT POSITION -- WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA BEHIND FIRST WHICH IS NOT AS STRONGLY HEATED...BUT WHICH HAS STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. NET RESULT ALSO WILL BE MLCAPES INCREASING TO 200-400 J/KG. THIS AREA REPRESENTS OVERLAP BETWEEN ERN EDGE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND WRN PORTION STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEARS BECOMING 40-50 KT. MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS. FARTHER W...MORE ISOLATED/POSTFRONTAL ACTIVITY UNDER COLD CORE REGION WILL PRESENT MAINLY HAIL THREAT AMIDST VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT WEAK SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 09/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 35891051 36900971 37610981 37631042 37301152 37981236 39581224 40501037 41640850 41680702 40530637 38480666 36910732 36050867  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 20 20:27:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 20 Sep 2006 16:27:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202028 TXZ000-NMZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1990 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 202028Z - 202230Z AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...WITH PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF SOUTHWEST TX /NAMELY FROM FORT STOCKTON TO MARFA/ AMIDST A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AT MID AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z MIDLAND RAOB FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUPPORTS A WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS/LEADING MID LEVEL JET AHEAD OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. WIND PROFILER DATA FROM TUCUMCARI/WHITE SANDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS INCREASE OF DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST INTO THIS EVENING...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MODEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODIFIED 12Z MIDLAND RAOB/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTIVE OF MLCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG OR LESS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY PROGRESSIVELY NORTH ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK VICINITY TOWARD/WEST OF LUBBOCK EARLY THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 09/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35220262 35010126 31850161 30560265 30830372 32230355 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 15:47:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 11:47:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211548 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211548 LAZ000-TXZ000-211715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 211548Z - 211715Z BROKEN BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL TSTMS -- INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM SE TX SEWD ACROSS GULF -- IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD ONSHORE SWRN LA THROUGH 18Z. ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR SVR POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL BE NON-DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE IN MOST AREAS...AND ALSO SPEED/DEGREE OF INLAND DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED SOON...AREA MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 15Z MARINE/WARM FRONT POSITION FROM NEAR HOU ESEWD TO SABINE RIVER MOUTH...TO ABOUT 60 SSW ARA...MOVING NNEWD 15-20 KT...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE W OF HOU. MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT ALONG FRONT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN SE OF INTENSE WRN KS CYCLONE. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE LARGEST N OF WARM FRONT...BUT MODIFIED LCH RAOB/VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG MAY EXIST ALONG AND S OF FRONT AS WELL...WHERE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IS MOST LIKELY TO SHIFT INLAND FROM GULF. BUOY DATA AND CRP RAOB INDICATES AIR MASS S OF FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED VERY RICH AND DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID 70S F. RELATIVELY STABLE LAYER AROUND 700 MB IS PROGGED TO COOL AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS...CONCURRENT WITH WARM FROPA AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING. THIS YIELDS MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG COAST FROM BPT AREA EWD THROUGH AND SE OF LCH BY 18Z. ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29059203 29699458 31189410 30489151  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 16:46:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 12:46:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211647 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211647 KSZ000-NEZ000-211815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1992 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN KS. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 211647Z - 211815Z A FEW SMALL SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...NE-E OF DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LOW NOW ADVANCING EWD FROM CO ACROSS WRN KS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER W-CENTRAL KS BETWEEN GLD-GCK...WARM FRONT NEWD BETWEEN HLC-MCK...COLD FRONT SSEWD TO E-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...AND PREFRONTAL DRYLINE/CONVERGENCE LINE FROM THOMAS COUNTY KS SSEWD TO EXTREME NWRN WOODS COUNTY OK. LATTER BOUNDARY CORRESPONDS TO NARROW ARC OF CONVECTION -- INCLUDING A FEW SMALL TSTMS -- BUILDING ATTM FROM SRN SHERIDAN COUNTY SEWD TOWARD EDWARDS COUNTY...WITH CU/TCU SWD ACROSS OK BORDER. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...PRIND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITHIN NARROW CORRIDOR OF CLEARED SKIES AND SFC HEATING...LOCATED BETWEEN CONVERGENCE LINE AND BACK EDGE OF DENSE CLOUD LAYERS COVERING CENTRAL/NRN KS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 64-66 DEG F SFC TEMPS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG TO DEVELOP. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD THROUGH HYS/HLC/RSL/GBD AREAS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG BOUNDARY. VERY TENUOUS BALANCE EXISTS BETWEEN SUPERCELL THREAT AND INABILITY TO SUSTAIN DISCRETE UPDRAFTS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF AMBIENT FLOW AND LIMITED CAPE. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS INTENSE...WITH UP TO 80 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS DETECTED BY HVL PROFILER...CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST 50-60 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. PROFILER/RUC WINDS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH 250-400 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39019962 39390018 39600081 39840073 40010005 39989961 39829905 39399837 38609797 38079799 37809832 37809860  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 19:17:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 15:17:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211918 KSZ000-OKZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1993 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL OK. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 211918Z - 212045Z STG-SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN BAND FROM EXISTING W-CENTRAL KS CONVECTION SSEWD...ROUGHLY ALONG AND E OF I-35/135 CORRIDOR THROUGH NRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL OK. IN ADDITION...GRADIENT GUSTS APCHG CONVECTIVE SVR LIMITS MAY BE LOCALLY/SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BENEATH CONVECTION. SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE DRYLINE CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN OK AND SWRN KS ATTM...EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 35 W HLC THROUGH RUSH COUNTY KS...SSEWD OVER P28...25 W END...20 NW SPS. VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATES MEAN WIND VECTOR AND 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SSW-NNE...WITH STRONG FLOW COMPONENT PARALLEL TO DRYLINE OVER NRN OK AND SRN KS. FLOW ALOFT IS MORE NORMAL TO DRYLINE AND FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE TSTMS FARTHER S ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN SRN OK. HOWEVER DEEP-LAYER LIFT IS MORE UNCERTAIN....WITH STRONGER CAPPING AS INDICTED IN 19Z FTW RAOB. THROUGH 21Z...NARROW CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING -- BEHIND EARLIER CLOUD/PRECIP SWATCH -- WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO BOOST MLCAPES INTO 250-500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG...I.E. 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR VECTORS 60-80 KT IN LMN PROFILER DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. 0-1 KM SRH ABOVE 300 J/KG IS POSSIBLE FOR ANY DISCRETE TSTMS THAT CAN MOVE SUBSTANTIALLY RIGHTWARD -- NEWD OF MEAN WIND. ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 35619788 36729781 37449773 38019793 38839802 38819705 38229663 37249632 36079640 35559646 34589672 34339799  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 19:49:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 15:49:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211949 TXZ000-OKZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN TX. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 211949Z - 212045Z WW REQUIRED. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC DRYLINE. SUPERCELLS WILL POSE INITIAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES...LCL LOWERS AND AMBIENT KINEMATICS STRENGTHEN. ACCORDINGLY...AREAS FROM DAL EWD AND NEWD ACROSS NE TX AND SERN OK ARE BEING UPGRADED TO MDT CATEGORICAL RISK IN 20Z SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK. AT 19Z...SFC WARM FRONT -- DEMARCATING NRN EXTENT OF VERY RICHLY MOIST GULF AIR MASS -- WAS ANALYZED NEAR ACT...LFK...LCH LINE...AND WILL LIFT NNEWD ACROSS I-20 TOWARD RED RIVER...ESPECIALLY FROM DFW METROPLEX EWD. DRYLINE WAS EVIDENT IN SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY FROM W-CENTRAL OK SWD TO ABOUT 20 NNW SPS...THEN SWWD TO TOM GREEN COUNTY TX. COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN OK AND TX SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD CATCH DRYLINE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH COMBINED BOUNDARY MOVING EWD INTO N-CENTRAL TX. AIR MASS TO ITS E WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH SFC HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION BOOSTING MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. CAP EVIDENT IN 19Z FWD RAOB SHOULD ERODE -- WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN MWL-DFW-ACT...AND MORE MOIST LAYER FARTHER E. BY 00Z...MOIST ADVECTION MAY FURTHER BOOST MLCAPES TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NE TX. ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32119835 32369886 33099900 33679849 34829779 34959697 34679542 34529486 33889479 32659463 32269541 32029673  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 19:50:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 15:50:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211951 COR TXZ000-OKZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...S-CENTRAL/SERN OK. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 211951Z - 212045Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE AREA WW REQUIRED. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC DRYLINE. SUPERCELLS WILL POSE INITIAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES...LCL LOWERS AND AMBIENT KINEMATICS STRENGTHEN. ACCORDINGLY...AREAS FROM DAL EWD AND NEWD ACROSS NE TX AND SERN OK ARE BEING UPGRADED TO MDT CATEGORICAL RISK IN 20Z SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK. AT 19Z...SFC WARM FRONT -- DEMARCATING NRN EXTENT OF VERY RICHLY MOIST GULF AIR MASS -- WAS ANALYZED NEAR ACT...LFK...LCH LINE...AND WILL LIFT NNEWD ACROSS I-20 TOWARD RED RIVER...ESPECIALLY FROM DFW METROPLEX EWD. DRYLINE WAS EVIDENT IN SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY FROM W-CENTRAL OK SWD TO ABOUT 20 NNW SPS...THEN SWWD TO TOM GREEN COUNTY TX. COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN OK AND TX SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD CATCH DRYLINE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH COMBINED BOUNDARY MOVING EWD INTO N-CENTRAL TX. AIR MASS TO ITS E WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH SFC HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION BOOSTING MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. CAP EVIDENT IN 19Z FWD RAOB SHOULD ERODE -- WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN MWL-DFW-ACT...AND MORE MOIST LAYER FARTHER E. BY 00Z...MOIST ADVECTION MAY FURTHER BOOST MLCAPES TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NE TX. ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32119835 32369886 33099900 33679849 34829779 34959697 34679542 34529486 33889479 32659463 32269541 32029673  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 22:00:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 18:00:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212200 OKZ000-KSZ000-212330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 782... VALID 212200Z - 212330Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 782 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL. NEARLY STACKED COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE I-35/135 CORRIDOR FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL OK. SCATTERED MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY...WITH A NUMBER OF TORNADO REPORTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS IN MITCHELL/RUSSELL/LINCOLN COUNTIES. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER MODEST TOTAL CAPE -- GENERALLY 500 J/KG MLCAPE OR LESS -- A RELATIVELY HIGH CONCENTRATION OF 0-3 KM CAPE OF AROUND 100 J/KG AND ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ONGOING STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RAIN COOLED/MORE STABLE AIR BECOMES MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE OCCLUSION. MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OK THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/HAIL AND ENHANCED WIND GUSTS INCREASING. ..GUYER.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID... 39119838 39299775 38239621 37429516 36579491 35579498 35139621 35239710 36919728 37729767  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 22:51:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 18:51:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212251 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1996 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0551 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN TX...SERN OK AND WRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 783... VALID 212251Z - 220045Z 22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 985 MB LOW OVER NCNTRL KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND INTO NCNTRL TX JUST WEST OF KABI. A DOUBLE STRUCTURE WARM FRONT EXISTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THE NRN-MOST FEATURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SEWD ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN AR. A MARINE WARM FRONT...A DEMARCATION OF MORE QUALITY TROPICAL MSTR...WAS LIFTING NWD THROUGH NERN TX AND SWRN LA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK MID-LEVEL JETLET MAY BE MIGRATING INTO THE RED RVR REGION ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. MESOANALYSIS TIME SERIES SHOWS THAT A REGION OF MODEST PRESSURE FALLS HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND MAY BE A REFLECTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL JETLET. THOUGH THE CUMULUS ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR FLAT...WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SERN OK AND NERN TX WHERE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN GROWING. IN FACT...A FEW TSTMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION. LATEST RUC IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN INCREASING TSTMS FROM EXTREME NERN TX NEWD INTO WRN AR THROUGH LATE EVENING. MORE QUALITY MSTR WAS LAGGING SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT COULD BECOME A FACTOR IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LATER ON. TSTMS THAT CAN MANAGE TO BECOME ROOTED INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR. RIGHT-MOVING STORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO 250+ M2/S2 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY... INCREASING THE RISK OF TORNADOES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP VCNTY THE RED RVR IN NERN TX AND SERN OK EWD INTO SWRN AR...OR ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RETURNING TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. ..RACY.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32669853 34489738 34889412 34529352 33279379 32429402 32399573  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 00:50:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 20:50:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220050 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-220245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NCNTRL/NERN TX AND WCNTRL/SWRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 783... VALID 220050Z - 220245Z 21Z VERSION OF THE 4KM WRF HAS BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN DEPICTING STRONGER TSTM INITIATION ACROSS SERN OK FROM HASKELL SWWD TO MARSHALL COUNTIES IN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ENEWD INTO WCNTRL AR LATER THIS EVE. PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE METROPLEX REGION. 00Z MESOANALYSIS TIME-SERIES CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH LA TOWARD THE ARKLATEX WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD ADVECT NWD INTO AT LEAST SERN OK AND SWRN AR BY MIDNIGHT. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DESTABILIZATION...00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WARM NOSE EXISTS JUST ABOVE H7 AND MAY TEMPER OVERALL INSTABILITY VALUES. NONETHELESS...0-1KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES SHOULD STORMS REMAIN ORGANIZED. ACTIVITY ALONG THE NRN END OF THE DEVELOPING LINE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS STORMS MOVE INTO NWRN/NCNTRL AR. STRONGER...LIKELY SFC-BASED STORMS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SERN OK AND WCNTRL/SWRN AR FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AS A RESULT...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/SWRN AR TO THE EAST OF WT 782/783 BY 02-03Z. ..RACY.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34109664 35209525 35659399 35249300 34379280 33899326 33819553  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 00:58:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 20:58:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220058 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS/EASTERN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 782... VALID 220058Z - 220300Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 782 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS/EASTERN OK...WITH THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE EAST OF WW 782 INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF TORNADO WATCH 782 IN CENTRAL KS...AS OCCLUDED FRONT/DRYLINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE KS TURNPIKE. GRADUAL INFLUX OF MODESTLY RICHER THETA-E IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SOUTHEAST KS...WITH OBJECTIVE DIAGNOSTICS AND 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS REFLECTIVE OF MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 250 J/KG ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS...TO 1000-1250 J/KG ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OK. IN SPITE OF THE MODEST INSTABILITY...HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 MS/S2 OR GREATER WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS QUALITY IS CURRENTLY A CONCERN EAST OF WW 782 /REF 00Z SPRINGFIELD MO RAOB/...WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR. LATEST RUC FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIRMASS MAY MODESTLY DESTABILIZE LATE TONIGHT INTO NORTHWEST AR/FAR SOUTHWEST MO AMIDST A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME. ..GUYER.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36949698 38029531 37299360 36079354 35489480 35139621 35239710  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 04:24:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 00:24:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220425 ARZ000-OKZ000-220630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK AND CNTRL AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 784... VALID 220425Z - 220630Z AIR MASS WAS DESTABILIZING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR LATE THIS EVENING AS MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS ADVECT NWD FROM LA. LONG-LIVED CYCLIC SUPERCELL THAT HAD ITS ROOTS IN SOUTHERN OK...CONTINUES TO THRIVE WITHIN THE ERN-MOST GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE... LINE SEGMENTS TO THE WEST OF KRUE HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MORE DISCRETE WITH THE SRN-MOST CELL TAKING ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...PROBABLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ELY FLOW WITHIN THE RVR VLY. GIVEN THE NWD TRANSPORT OF MORE QUALITY MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO MOST OF AR...CURRENT STORMS MAY VERY WELL REMAIN WITHIN THE ERN-MOST GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE SUPERCELL THREAT INTO CNTRL AR BY 06Z. USING A STORM MOTION OF 260/40...0-1KM SRH DERIVED FROM THE DE QUEEN PROFILER WAS 550+ M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS THAT IF THE STORMS CAN REMAIN ROOTED CLOSE TO THE SFC...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO CNTRL AR THROUGH 06Z. ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER EAST. ..RACY.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... 34029545 36049488 35899241 34019273 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 09:08:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 05:08:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220908 TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...AND PARTS OF SE MO...NW MS...WRN TN INTO EXTREME SW KY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 784... VALID 220908Z - 221015Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 10Z. IN WAKE OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING IS SPREADING THROUGH THE LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE ARKLATEX. THIS IS CAPPING OFF RETURNING TONGUE OF VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS. WHILE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME INHIBITED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...END TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOWER IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHERE STORMS APPEAR BASED NEAR ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE THAT RISK OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LARGE...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BEFORE SLACKING OFF SOME THROUGH MID MORNING. ..KERR.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF... 36609125 36979012 36628907 35848878 34818925 34219030 34009135 34499241 35289280 36039225  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 13:35:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 09:35:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221335 TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-221500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0835 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/NERN TX NEWD INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 221335Z - 221500Z POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING TO THE SW OF WW 785. A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SYNTHESIS OF SURFACE ANALYSIS...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT STORMS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING N OF LIT ARE BEING FORCED BY SWLY 40 KT LLJ AXIS IMPINGING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR RKR TO N OF LIT TO NEAR MEM. MODIFICATION OF 12Z LIT SOUNDING FOR CONDITIONS NOW BEING OBSERVED OVER SWRN AR INDICATES THAT ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY UNCAPPED FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS UPSTREAM...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-450 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 60 KTS /PER LATEST LIT VWP/. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA TODAY. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... 33809544 34859500 35559388 36129214 36329058 36168986 35768931 35218915 34239005 33419219 32969409 33109491  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 16:11:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 12:11:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221611 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221610 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-221745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK INTO SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 221610Z - 221745Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW NE OF TUL ALONG ATTENDANT PRESSURE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM CNTRL MO INTO S-CNTRL OK. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ IS CONTRIBUTING TO NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING FROM NERN OK SURFACE LOW INTO FAR SWRN MO AND THEN MORE SEWD INTO NERN AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BUOYANT WITH HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM SGF SWWD TO E OF TUL...AND AN INCREASING CUMULUS FIELD SWD ACROSS ERN OK. THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE S-CNTRL U.S. SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES SHOULD INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG...DESPITE MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE OBSERVED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34529574 35469557 36479508 37199445 38019352 38099281 37799233 37269234 36399322 35269415 34189463 33799481 34009573  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 17:14:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 13:14:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221715 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221715 TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-221845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR INTO WRN TN AND NWRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 786... VALID 221715Z - 221845Z TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS WRN AND PERHAPS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG. REGIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS AND/OR EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN AR AND NEAR AND NE OF TXK. HERE...THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. WHILE LIT VWP SHOWS THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES OWING TO THE DECREASE IN AIR MASS STABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL TO INITIALLY EXIST ALONG WRN FRINGE OF WW AREA /I.E. FROM E OF FSM TO HRO/ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FREE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN INTO CNTRL AR. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 35129482 35759453 36739347 36809105 36728861 34658886 33888962 33159388 33539501  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 17:49:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 13:49:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221750 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221749 ILZ000-MOZ000-222015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO... CENTRAL AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 221749Z - 222015Z ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MO AND POSSIBLY WCENTRAL IL. FURTHER EAST...CONVECTIVE INITIATION/SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WAIT UNTIL 20Z ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SRN IL. A WW IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY 19Z. LATEST VISIBLE SAT DATA SHOWS CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE ONLY 1-2 HRS AWAY ACROSS ECENTRAL/NERN MO AND WCENTRAL IL ALONG A OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...REINFORCED BY LOW CLOUD COVER...EXTENDING FROM 50 W OF STL SSEWD TO NEAR POF. AS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD IT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION. HOWEVER THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT IN THE WAKE AND TO THE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY SUFFICIENT HEATING AND LIMITED REMAINING CINH ALONG WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND BROAD CONFLUENCE SHOULD SUPPORTING DISCRETE ROTATING TSTMS MOVING NEWD FROM SWRN MO /WW 787/ INTO ERN MO BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 19Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /30 KTS 0-1 KM PER REGIONAL PROFILER DATA/ ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG/ AS EVIDENT BY 16Z SGF SOUNDING ARE EVIDENCE OF AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG TORNADOES. FURTHER NE...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS/LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN OVER CENTRAL IL IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER INSPECTION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA AND MODIFICATION OF 12Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATES SUFFICIENT CINH /100 J/KG/ STILL EXISTS TO DELAY INITIATION AND SVR THREAT IN THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER 20Z. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF... 40638873 40788996 40089123 38829212 38309221 37809182 36939095 36809060 36958976 37258897 38308844 39048843  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 18:11:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 14:11:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221811 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-221945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN SWD INTO NERN MS AND NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 221811Z - 221945Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A DUAL WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH NRN MOST BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MO SEWD INTO WRN TN /NE OF DYR/ AND THEN INTO N-CNTRL AL. THE SRN BAROCLINIC ZONE...NOT AS WELL DEFINED...EXISTED FROM CNTRL AR TO NEAR TUP. TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG ERN FRINGE OF LLJ FROM NRN MS/NWRN AL INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TN WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. CURRENT OKOLONA MS PROFILER SHOWS MODESTLY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 40-45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL AND 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 150 M2/S2. GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTANT LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS WAA PATTERN. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34118972 35118919 35908901 36308887 36408836 36158761 35798707 35138682 34238704 33728763 33428806 33338848 33448918 33698955 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 19:20:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 15:20:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221920 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IND...FAR ERN IA AND SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 221920Z - 222145Z SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS 21Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN IA SEWD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CHI METRO AREA. COPIOUS CLOUD COVER HAS AIDED IN A SLOW WARMUP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/NRN IL AND SERN IA. THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED AROUND 50 J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL IL WHILE THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING INDICATED OVER 100 J/KG OF MLCINH. INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NRN IL AND ERN IA IN THE LAST 1-2 HRS ARE A RESULT OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS JET MAX MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...INCREASING INSOLATION AND DIMINISHING CINH SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES NEAR THE MS RIVER /PER DVN RADAR IMAGERY/. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR /20-30 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY /1000 J/KG OF MLCINH/ WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO SRN WI/NWRN IND BY EARLY EVENING /AFTER 23Z/ IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THESE AREAS OCCURS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 40218838 40309026 40689062 41349093 42099072 43309018 43398908 43348831 43278744 41968681 40498710  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 19:55:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 15:55:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221955 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-222200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SWRN IND...WRN KY AND NWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 221955Z - 222200Z TORNADO WW IS POSSIBLE BY 22Z FOR THE AREA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DOUBLE WARM FRONT STRUCTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH THE NRN MOST BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR FAM IN SERN MO EWD TO OWB IN WRN KY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED RECENTLY BY ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION. FURTHER SOUTH...THE MAIN WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM 10 N OF POF TO 35 NE OF DYR IN NWRN TN. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LIFTING NWD AROUND 15 KTS INTO NWRN TN AND SERN MO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO WRN KY AND FAR SERN IL/SWRN IND OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE MAIN WARM FRONT HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CINH. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS /2 MB IN 2 HRS/ AND THUS STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO SUBSTANTIATED BY RECENT PAH VWP DATA WHICH SHOWS A STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH /40 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR/. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SVR WITHIN 1-2 HRS...AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG TORNADOES. IF ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE 22Z...THEN THE SVR THREAT AND NEED FOR A TORNADO WATCH WOULD FOCUS ON A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN MO AND NCENTRAL AR THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 22Z. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36188922 36538923 38148866 38118806 37968714 37058747 35968796 36038851  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 20:00:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 16:00:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222000 KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-222130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID MS VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH AND SRN LOW PLAINS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 786...787...788... VALID 222000Z - 222130Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AN ENHANCED THREAT OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO INTO NRN AR...FAR WRN TN AND PERHAPS FAR ERN OK. AS OF 1945Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER FRANKLIN...CRAWFORD...WASHINGTON...IRON AND REYNOLDS COUNTIES MO NEAR AND JUST TO THE NE OF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM N OF SGF TO JUST N OF POF INTO NWRN TN /N OF DYR/. ANOTHER INTENSE STORM CLUSTER /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ WAS LOCATED OVER FULTON...IZARD AND STONE COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL AR. MODIFICATION OF EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM LIT AND SGF INDICATES THAT AIR MASS ACROSS SRN MO...AR INTO ERN OK HAS BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. ACCOMPANYING WIND PROFILES INDICATED LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH 45-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. THIS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY LARGER INVOF WARM FRONT OVER SRN MO WHERE 0-1 KM SRH LIKELY EXCEEDS 250-300 M2/S2. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. THIS THREAT IS GREATEST ACROSS NRN AR INTO SRN MO. EXPECT OTHER STORMS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING OVER NWRN AR INTO SWRN MO TO EVOLVE SIMILARLY...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY FROM NEAR LIT NEWD TO NEAR DYR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 35239632 37299536 38449331 39069296 40359172 40468805 37478829 35708879 34358908 33639027 33549152 33769404 33689611  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 20:33:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 16:33:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222034 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-222230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 222034Z - 222230Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME. OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH IN THE NEXT 3+ HRS THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP DATA INDICATED 60-70 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND BETWEEN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED ABOVE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. GIVEN DEPTH OF THE STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SFC /1 KM/ IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE DMGG WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES MARKEDLY. THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 37548655 39418702 39998720 40528642 40448529 39848514 38508457 37848446 37558455 37068463 36948524 36958650 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 21:07:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 17:07:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222108 WIZ000-222315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 222108Z - 222315Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SWRN/SCENTRAL WI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z. LATEST VISIBLE SAT DATA SHOWS CLEARING WAS OCCURRING RELATIVELY RAPIDLY OVER SWRN WI AND FAR NWRN IL AS UPPER JET MAX MOVES BY AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WIDEN ACROSS SRN WI OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS AS A RESULT OF THE EWD MOVING DRY SLOT/CLEARING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ALONG A NEWD MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR OVS SEWD TO JUST NEAR FREEPORT IL AT 21Z. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH /MLCAPES FROM 750-1000 J/KG/ STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /30 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR PER THE MKX VWP/ COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX... 42618782 43178782 43629017 43609058 43299062 42529030 42518790  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 22:07:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 18:07:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222208 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SRN/CENTRAL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788...790... VALID 222208Z - 230015Z CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS /SOME LIKELY SIGNIFICANT/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF WW 788 /SCENTRAL/SERN MO AND SRN IL/ AND ACROSS WRN KY AND EVENTUALLY SWRN IND /WW 790/ OVER THE NEXT 2 HRS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM STL AND PAH INDICATED SEVERAL STRONGLY ROTATING SUPERCELLS. ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION REMAINS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES /0-1 KM SRH UP TO 350 M2/S2/ WITH A FEW DMGG TORNADOES POSSIBLE. MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION OF SIG TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE OVER FAR WRN KY AND SRN IL WHERE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2 AND PRESSURE FALLS /2-3 MB/2 HR/ EXIST. AS SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH WRN KY AND INTO SWRN IND/SERN IL...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIRMASS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MVN TO SOUTH OF EVV TO NEAR BWG. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD AND SUPPORT A DEVELOPING TORNADO THREAT INTO SERN IL/SWRN IND IN THE NEXT FEW HRS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER THE SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LIMITED INTO CENTRAL KY AND THE REST OF SRN IND. FURTHER NORTH...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED SHORT TERM THREAT OF SVR WEATHER IN THE IMMEDIATE STL AREA/ECENTRAL MO...AS VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO APPARENT TOWERING CU ALONG THE SFC CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MO. HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONFLUENCE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL IL. SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 250 M2/S2/ WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 40278819 40318995 40149076 39479160 38279209 37049260 36619248 36619014 36678849 36698761 36808741 38518704 38608858  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 22:37:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 18:37:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222237 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-230030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IND AND SWRN MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 791... VALID 222237Z - 230030Z CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN IL...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED TORNADO THREAT ANTICIPATED OVER THE CHI METRO AREA THROUGH 00Z. ELEVATED SVR HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP NEWD INTO SWRN MI AND NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THOSE AREAS ATTM. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM CHICAGO INDICATES A E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR ORD EWD TO JUST NORTH OF ARR. THREE SEPARATE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. RECENT LOT VWP DATA SHOWED A STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH WITH O-1 KM SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2. THREAT FOR TORNADOES...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...WILL OCCUR WITH THESE SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE EWD ALONG AND INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. FARTHER SOUTH MORE DISORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS IN THE PONTIAC AND BLOOMINGTON AREAS. IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS /STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPH/ WILL FAVOR ISOLATED LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO NWRN IND AND SWRN MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THIS MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL ELEVATED SVR HAIL THREAT WITH ANY DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER THE AREA AND/OR NRN IL SVR STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 42508756 42528922 41859015 40219068 40268979 40278832 40298738 41028738 42448724  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 22:58:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 18:58:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222258 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-230030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK INTO AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 222258Z - 230030Z TORNADO WATCH 786 EXPIRES AT 00Z...BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 40. TORNADO WATCH 787 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z IN ECNTRL OK...NWRN AR AND PARTS OF SWRN MO. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR KSGF SWWD INTO SCNTRL OK. THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY INERT WITH MAIN CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING WITH THE HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS DEEPLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NRN AR. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE FAVORING NORTHERN EDGE OF A SFC THERMAL RIDGE AND ALONG A WARM FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY INITIATION ZONE SHOULD REMAIN FROM ECNTRL OK NEWD INTO NRN AR. BUT...THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR BACKBUILDING STORMS INTO CNTRL AR AND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN ERN/SRN OK AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. TSTMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL HELICITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER AREA. PRIND THAT AREAS FROM INTERSTATE 40 NWD WILL NEED ANOTHER WW BY 00Z. S OF I-40...TSTM COVERAGE OUGHT TO REMAIN LIMITED. ..RACY.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34579595 36039440 36339187 36279028 35319037 34509122 34099244 33999443 34389598  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 23:14:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 19:14:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222315 ALZ000-MSZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS AND NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 789... VALID 222315Z - 230015Z TORNADO WATCH 789 EXPIRES AT 00Z...BUT MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR A LINGERING TORNADO THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BY THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS HAS BEEN WEAKENING ACROSS NRN AL SINCE 2230Z WITH OTHER ISOLD SUPERCELLS MOVING NWD ALONG THE TN/AL BORDER. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE THRIVING ALONG ERN EDGE OF THE LLJ CORE THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT WWD AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DIGS SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. UNTIL THEN...TSTMS CONTINUING ALONG THE RETURNING MARINE/WARM FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN AL MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SHORT TIME FRAME OF THE LINGERING THREAT...A NEW WW DOES NOT SEEM NECESSARY. BUT...A COUPLE OF HOURS EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT WATCH WOULD BE A VIABLE OPTION. ..RACY.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34928917 34828741 34348623 33778624 33468708 33948969  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 23:43:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 19:43:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222343 WIZ000-230145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 222343Z - 230145Z ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AND OR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS OVER CENTRAL WI THROUGH 02Z. GIVEN RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF SVR POTENTIAL...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM CENTRAL INTO SERN WI. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL AND WAS DRIVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN IL...WHILE LEAVING SRN WI IN SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER UPPER VORT LOBE WAS ROTATING NWD ACROSS WRN WI. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED LOW TOP TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WITH THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS BEFORE SUFFICIENT STABILIZATION OCCURS THIS EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... 45028866 45238975 44879049 44339016 43948974 43908898 43968845 44598814  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 23 00:31:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 20:31:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230032 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...EXTREME NWRN AR AND SCNTRL/SWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 787... VALID 230032Z - 230200Z TORNADO WATCH 787 HAS AN EXPIRATION OF 02Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS LIKELY...PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ACROSS ERN OK...WRN AR AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN MO. NRN END OF THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED EWD AND WAS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MO SWWD TO NEAR KSGF THEN INTO NERN OK. LOW-LEVEL MSTR WAS BEGINNING TO SURGE BACK NWWD ACROSS SERN OK AND NCNTRL TX IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. RECENTLY...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE FROM ATOKA SWWD INTO BRYAN COUNTIES IN OK WHERE CINH HAS WEAKENED. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE...THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL EXPAND NEWD INTO NWRN/WCNTRL AR THROUGH MID-EVENING. THIS REGION IS SITUATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT BEGINS TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STORMS BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. FARTHER N...IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR ON POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ACROSS SCNTRL/SWRN MO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION WAS INCREASING OVER THESE AREAS...BUT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ..RACY.. 09/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34089647 37739416 38279306 37939153 37059167 36789309 36339370 34079499  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 23 00:50:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 20:50:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230050 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-230245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO AND WRN/SRN IL...WRN AND CENTRAL KY AND SRN IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788...790... VALID 230050Z - 230245Z THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS /INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS/ WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WW 788 AND INTO WW 790 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER AFTER 02Z...MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF WW 788 WILL LIKELY SEE SUFFICIENT STABILIZATION THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AND A NEW WW IN THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW SUPERCELLS /INCLUDING LEFT SPLITTING STORMS/ MAY MOVE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 788 FROM WW/S 792 AND 787 OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THEREFORE THIS IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A REPLACEMENT WW OVER SERN MO BEFORE 02Z. LATEST VWP DATA INDICATED A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS WRN INTO NRN AR. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL THEREFORE REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NRN AR /SOUTH OF WW 788/. HOWEVER STRONG STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE INTO SRN MO BEYOND 02Z SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. FURTHER NORTH...CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF THE STL METRO AREA SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WW 790 BY AROUND 02Z. CONVECTIVE LINE /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WEAKENING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO/SVR WIND THREAT IN THIS PORTION OF WW 788 BEYOND 02Z. FURTHER EAST...SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS OVER WRN KY AND SERN IL/SWRN IND /WW 790/ AS CONVECTIVE LINES/CELLS MOVES OUT OF SWRN IL AND SERN MO. WITH SFC WARM FRONT IN THE REGION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL KY/FAR SRN IND IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND THUS A NEW WW EAST OF WW 790 IS NOT EXPECTED. ..CROSBIE.. 09/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36718608 38488506 38478697 38508860 40278824 39799064 38969137 36589183 36558932  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 27 19:51:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 27 Sep 2006 15:51:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271951 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR/SRN-SERN MO/FAR SRN IL/FAR WRN KY/FAR WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 271951Z - 272045Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN INTO NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEWD ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO SRN IL/LOWER OH VALLEY. WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN AR INTO FAR SRN IL/WRN KY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SRN EXTENT OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WRN AR. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI/NERN IND SWWD THROUGH SRN IL/SRN MO AND CENTRAL OK. ASCENT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ARE LIKELY SUPPORTING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN AR. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS A MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD WEAKEN THE CINH BY LATE AFTERNOON AIDING IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 09/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37049153 38488880 37708763 35928899 35148989 34889173 35039383 35729427 36399336  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 27 20:15:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 27 Sep 2006 16:15:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272015 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-272145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN IL/SWRN-ERN IND/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 272015Z - 272145Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING/ BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN INTO WRN IND FROM MIAMI TO VIGO COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG/. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40-45 KT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS... THE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL... AND THUS LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH. ..PETERS.. 09/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX... 38638850 39328761 40178630 40848593 41198533 41348436 40078465 39138543 38298674 38238789  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 28 01:04:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 27 Sep 2006 21:04:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 280104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280104 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/NERN AR/WRN KY/NWRN TN/EXTREME SRN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 801... VALID 280104Z - 280230Z STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW 801...BUT DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE LINE -- WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS -- NOW EXTENDING FROM SRN IN WSWWD INTO SERN MO/NERN AR. STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY -- WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. WITH DIURNAL COOLING NOW UNDERWAY...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY-ELEVATED WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF MARGINAL HAIL -- SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OH VALLEY REGION OF NWRN KY. ..GOSS.. 09/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... 36309186 36919023 37948770 38678693 38788627 37958599 37128659 35848924 35819102  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 1 02:19:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2006 22:19:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010221 KSZ000-COZ000-010345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0921 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 760... VALID 010221Z - 010345Z POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN KS PORTION OF WW THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS OF 0205Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A MATURE MCS WITH ASSOCIATED LINE END VORTEX FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY SWD TO KIOWA COUNTY CO WITH ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS OVER GREELEY...WICHITA AND LOGAN COUNTIES IN WRN KS. MODIFICATION OF 00Z DDC SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN KS INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STEADILY INCREASING...THOUGH AIR MASS STILL REMAINS POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. EVOLUTION OF LINE END VORTEX AND EXPANSION OF TRAILING PRECIPITATION REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAR ERN CO MCS MAY STILL SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS VIA ENHANCEMENT OF REAR INFLOW JET. AFOREMENTIONED MORE DISCRETE STORMS OVER WRN KS MAY TEND TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ INTENSIFIES...WITH THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY STORM CLUSTER OR MCS...OR DISCRETE PROPAGATION OF WRN MCS TO A NEW DOWNSTREAM POSITION. REGARDLESS OF EVOLUTION...ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO MOVE/DEVELOP MORE SEWD WITH TIME TOWARD GCK/DDC WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE-850 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM ROOKS COUNTY SEWD TO RICE COUNTY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WELL ALONG ERN EDGE OF LLJ WITH COMPLEX PROPAGATING SEWD. HERE TOO...ISOLATED AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD.. 09/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB... 38770245 39420238 39770218 39770134 39270074 38080054 37810130 37820193 38000231 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 1 03:57:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2006 23:57:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010359 NCZ000-010530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 761... VALID 010359Z - 010530Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY LAND FALLING SUPERCELLS. AS OF 0340Z...MOREHEAD CITY RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROXIMATELY 20 S ILM WITH A GENERAL MOVEMENT OF 190/8 KTS. AS ANTICIPATED...WARM FRONT INITIALLY OFFSHORE...HAS PIVOTED NWWD AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR CIRCULATION CENTER NEWD ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO 30-40 ESE ECG. CURRENTLY...MOST ACTIVE FEEDER BAND /WITH EMBEDDED TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS/ EXTENDS FROM NEAR AND W OF OAJ SEWD TO 100 ESE ILM. MODIFICATION OF RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FOR SURFACE CONDITIONS NEAR AND E OF WARM FRONT YIELDS SBCAPES OF 300-500 J/KG WITHIN VERY MOIST VERTICAL PROFILE WITH PW/S OF 2.5 INCHES. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LOW TO MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE SUSTENANCE WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-450 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN LARGER CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM NEAR OR JUST W OF WARM FRONT EWD INTO COMPARATIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..MEAD.. 09/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... 34177773 34647785 35567734 36307659 36417602 36307558 35947519 34677562 33847668 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 1 06:54:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 01 Sep 2006 02:54:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010655 NCZ000-VAZ000-010900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC...EXTREME SERN VA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 761... VALID 010655Z - 010900Z REPLACEMENT WW IS EXPECTED BEFORE SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION OF WW 761. TS ERNESTO HAS MOVED INLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD ACROSS ERN NC COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...PER NHC FCST. AS THIS OCCURS...FAVORABLE STRENGTHENING OF GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ABOVE SFC ACROSS SERN VA AND NERN NC...NE OF TS CENTER. PRIMARY SUPERCELL-PRODUCING SPIRAL BAND SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS ALBEMARLE AND NERN PAMLICO SOUND REGION DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS...THOUGH MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY MOVE ONSHORE FROM OUTER BANKS TO NEAR VA BORDER. 6Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT AND COLLOCATED WIND SHIFT LINE FROM OAJ NEWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS JONES...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...THEN ENEWD ACROSS WASHINGTON/TYRRELL COUNTIES NC AND ERN ALBEMARLE SOUND...CROSSING COAST NEAR CURRITUCK/DARE COUNTY LINE. PRIND FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NERN NC AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN VA...BENEATH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT. HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF FRONT WHERE SFC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY BACKED...BUT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO ITS E IN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR AS WELL. 0-1 KM SRH ACROSS NERN NC SHOULD INCREASE TO AOA 500 J/KG AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR LENGTHENS. FRONT IS A BUOYANCY-LIMITING TYPE...WITH TORNADO PROBABILITIES DROPPING GREATLY FROM E-W INTO THE COOLER AIR. ALTHOUGH THE E-W THETAE DROP THROUGH FRONT IS SUBTLE...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE SBCAPE AND GREATLY INCREASE CINH BENEATH WEAK/MOIST-ADIABATIC DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE TORNADO RISK WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO LOCATION OF MARINE AIR -- ALONG AND E OF FRONT. ..EDWARDS.. 09/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 34317709 35137736 35547781 36747659 37047584 36837551 36247542 35827517 35177522 34897538 34827583 34447623 34267646 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 1 11:43:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 01 Sep 2006 07:43:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011145 VAZ000-NCZ000-011345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NC...SERN VA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 762... VALID 011145Z - 011345Z SRN PORTIONS WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM S-N...AND THREAT APPEARS TO BE GETTING MORE QUESTIONABLE IN NWRN SECTIONS OF WW...W OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT FROM CYCLONE CENTER NEWD ACROSS BERTIE COUNTY...THROUGH ECG...AND OVER NRN BEACHES OF CURRITUCK COUNTY...THEN ENEWD TO ROUGHLY 15 NW OF BUOY 44014. PRIMARY CONVERGENCE BAND AS OF 1130Z EXTENDS FROM JUST OFFSHORE VA BEACH...SWD ACROSS ERN-MOST REACHES OF DARE COUNTY IN OUTER BANKS. NWD FRONTAL MOTION OVER LAND WILL BE SLOWER THAN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF TS CENTER...AND MAY BARELY BRING OPTIMALLY BUOYANT MARINE SECTOR INLAND OVER SERN VA...IF AT ALL. SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT WAS ANALYZED FROM TS CENTER ESEWD ACROSS BEAUFORT COUNTY AND SRN PAMLICO SOUND. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SFC-BASED MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE BETWEEN FRONT AND TROUGH...E THROUGH NE OF CENTER...WHERE 400-700 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH MAY JUXTAPOSE WITH SIMILAR VALUES OF SBCAPE. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH WITH INWARD EXTENT FROM CONVERGENCE BAND BECAUSE OF SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR AND MORE NEBULOUS CONVECTIVE MODE...AS OPPOSED TO STRONG LIFT AND RELATIVELY DISCRETE STRUCTURES CHARACTERIZING ACTIVITY IN SPIRAL BAND. FARTHER S...FROM SFC TROUGH SWD...TORNADO POTENTIAL DIMINISHES MARKEDLY BECAUSE OF WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR...AS WELL AS ROBUST LOW LEVEL DRY SLOT AND CAA INTRUDING IN INNER SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS DRYING/COOLING...ALSO EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSIS...WILL ADVANCE INTO ERN SEMICIRCLE FASTER THAN WARM FRONTAL MOTION...LEADING TO BAROCLINIC OCCLUSION PROCESS AT SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 09/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 34957580 36137631 36807717 37847648 37957527 37847491 36757560 35697513 34937527 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 1 16:28:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 01 Sep 2006 12:28:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011631 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011630 VAZ000-011800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1923 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN NC INTO SERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 762... VALID 011630Z - 011800Z THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN VA...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL. AN ADDITIONAL WW BEYOND 18Z IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED OVER NERN NC MOVING IN A GENERAL NWD DIRECTION. BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE N AND E OF THE CENTER...AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEATING. VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING REMAINS WITH INLAND CONVECTION. AS THE CENTER MOVES NWD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NWD EXTENT INTO SERN VA. THIS SUGGESTS OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 09/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ... 36587588 36627675 37507690 37827624 37617560 37097578 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 1 19:19:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 01 Sep 2006 15:19:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011920 COZ000-012115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 011920Z - 012115Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN CO BY 21Z AND SPREAD SEWD. SOME STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD INTO NERN CO NEAR GREELEY AND FARTHER WWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD. SATELLITE DATA SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NERN CO WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WWD MOVING DENSITY CURRENT. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE COINCIDENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE DEWPOINT AT AKRON HAS INCREASED A COUPLE OF DEGREES DURING THE PAST HOUR. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S E OF THE FRONT RANGE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. AS THE CAP WEAKENS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN VICINITY OF SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL FLOW MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WNWLY THROUGH 6 KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING AS THEY SPREAD SEWD. ..DIAL.. 09/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38900236 38300283 38130396 40200528 40400423 40540340 40610258 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 2 00:30:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 01 Sep 2006 20:30:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020032 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 763... VALID 020032Z - 020200Z POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02-03Z ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. EVOLUTION OF AN MCS HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WITH LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM GUST FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25 W ITR TO 35 SE PUB AS OF 0020Z. THE GENERAL SYSTEM MOVEMENT IS 310/20-25 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CELLS CURRENTLY OVER SRN LINCOLN AND ERN PUEBLO COUNTIES. AIR MASS OVER E-CNTRL INTO SERN CO REMAINS RELATIVELY COOL /70-75F/ OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING CIRRUS BLOW-OFF WHICH IS LIMITING MLCAPES TO 500-1000 J/KG /PER 00Z DDC SOUNDING/. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 09/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37340478 38100408 38710317 38940263 38780210 37950196 37200249 36800324 36690404 36890448 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 2 18:43:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 02 Sep 2006 14:43:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 021845 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021845 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-022015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL IA...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 021845Z - 022015Z AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN IA AND SRN MN...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A MOIST AXIS ORIENTED SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN IA AND SRN MN WHERE SBCAPES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES EWD INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS DECREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP AND ANY HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 41429272 41289387 41749415 42879458 43919488 44759500 45149421 44969298 44509218 43289221 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 2 20:13:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 02 Sep 2006 16:13:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022014 AZZ000-022145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 022014Z - 022145Z AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AZ...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE FROM SWRN AZ EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL AZ AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY EXCEED 9.0 C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE MULTICELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AZ WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 33191270 33441305 33911333 34441342 35151296 35711258 35941187 35811113 35331056 34621043 33961075 33411132 33201178 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 2 22:36:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 02 Sep 2006 18:36:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022238 AZZ000-CAZ000-030115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA...SWRN/CNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 022238Z - 030115Z DOWNBURST WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLOW MOVING AND POORLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN CA AND CNTRL/SWRN AZ INTO THE EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST HOUR...SEVERAL INTENSE STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES IN SRN CA...AS WELL AS YUMA AND MARICOPA COUNTIES IN SWRN AZ. DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS RESULTING IN THIS DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE WEAK CLOUD-BEARING FLOW AND SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION...RELATIVELY STRONGER FLOW IN THE 300MB TO 250MB LAYER WAS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT AS WELL AS EXHAUST FOR THE CONVECTION. DESPITE WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION...LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50KT...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...MAY BE PRODUCED BY ONGOING ACTIVITY. STORM MERGERS AND UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT...EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK FORCING/FLOW...COULD ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN IN SOME AREAS AND BLOWING DUST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF SUCH MERGERS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES A POOL OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WAS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PULSE/MULTICELL ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AROUND THIS POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 09/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 33571174 33091155 32001282 32271377 32541525 32751604 33081636 33481630 33971561 34351468 34731343 34841282 34591248 34001200 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 3 19:26:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 03 Sep 2006 15:26:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031927 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT SUN SEP 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN MN...NERN NEB/NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 031927Z - 032030Z ...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN NEB INTO MN... UPPER LOW IS CLEARLY DEFINED OVER EXTREME NWRN IA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS AIDED CONVECTION BENEATH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS H5 TEMPS ARE ROUGHLY -20C BENEATH THIS FEATURE WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS GENERATED A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN PERIPHERY FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO IA WHERE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. DOWNSTREAM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN THICKER WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS FROM SWRN WI INTO CNTRL MN. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP WITHIN THIS MORE MOIST PLUME...A FEW STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN INTO CNTRL MN. INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO WEAK TO WARRANT MORE THAN SMALL-MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. ..DARROW.. 09/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42369855 47199587 44208913 41149063 40879657 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 4 16:58:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 04 Sep 2006 12:58:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041659 ILZ000-WIZ000-041830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT MON SEP 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN/SCNTRL WI AND NRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 041659Z - 041830Z 16Z SFC ANALYSIS/HIGH-RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CONVERGENCE ZONE ARCING FROM CNTRL IA THROUGH SWRN WI...THEN SWD ACROSS NWRN IL. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SATL SUGGESTED THAT BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXIST AND SUFFICIENT INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM 2-4 MORE DEGREES F AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTN. H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 16-18 DEG C ATOP RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLD STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NRN IL AND SRN WI WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE BACKED TO A MORE ELY DIRECTION ALONG/N OF THE ARCING CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS ACROSS EXTREME NRN IL AND SRN WI MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY THE NUMBER AND SPACING OF THE STORMS THAT INITIATE. HERE...UPDRAFTS MAY BE SHORTER LIVED AND WEAKER AS UPDRAFT-DOWNDRAFT INTERFACES ARE CLOSELY SPACED. TSTMS THAT DEVELOP FARTHER S IN NRN/CNTRL IL WILL BE POTENTIALLY MORE DISCRETE AND...THUS...LONGER-LIVED AND STRONGER. ..RACY.. 09/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 40509070 41808974 42319023 42629063 42999051 43118981 42928916 42148804 41048826 40178937 40199028 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 4 19:12:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 04 Sep 2006 15:12:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041914 CAZ000-042115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CDT MON SEP 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 041914Z - 042115Z GOES SATL SOUNDER SUGGESTS THAT 1.50-1.75 INCH PWAT VALUES WERE ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF SWRN AZ INTO SRN CA THIS AFTN. STRONG HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SBCAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. NASCENT CB/S WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE CREST OF THE SRN CA MOUNTAINS FROM SRN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SWD TO ERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND ARE COINCIDENT WITH GENTLE ELY UPSLOPE FLOW. TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE SWWD INTO THE INLAND VLYS OF SRN CA THROUGH LATE AFTN. THE HIGH PWATS IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN/DEVELOP VCNTY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE ZONES. RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR PSBL ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 09/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX... 32561687 32921696 33271715 34001718 34321696 33491658 32611659 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 5 18:21:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 05 Sep 2006 14:21:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051822 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-052015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1932 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT TUE SEP 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL LOWER MI...WRN/CENTRAL IND AND ERN/SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 051822Z - 052015Z ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL/SWRN MI SWWD INTO ECENTRAL IL/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND BEGIN POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL /HRLY RATES OVER 1 INCH/. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM NEAR AZO SWWD TO NEAR DNV ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH. OTHER TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER SERN IL. 17Z SFC CONDITIONS INPUT INTO THE 12Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5 DEG C/KM/. GIVEN RELATIVELY LITTLE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER MOST OF THE REGION /UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW/ WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS /SOUTH LESS THAN 10 KTS/ PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CELL TRAINING AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH/HR. THIS IS THE FIRST OPERATIONAL PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED BY SPC AT THE NEW NATIONAL WEATHER CENTER BUILDING. A BIG THANK YOU TO EVERYONE WHO HAS HELPED WITH THIS TRANSITION. ..CROSBIE.. 09/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 42288545 41928660 41468772 40808813 40318834 39828864 39438879 38928900 38698882 38598834 38888744 39348677 40078594 40578549 41288496 41578484 41988475 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 5 19:16:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 05 Sep 2006 15:16:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051918 TXZ000-NMZ000-052115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT TUE SEP 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL...TX S PLAINS...NERN AND ECNTRL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 051918Z - 052115Z LATEST VSBL SATL SHOWS THAT MDT CU WERE BEGINNING TO SPROUT INTO ISOLD CB/S ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FROM EXTREME NERN NM SEWD INTO THE FAR WRN PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL. CU WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG THE CREST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEG F ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C PER KM. RESULTANT MLCAPES WERE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND WITH CONTINUED HEATING...INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SUPPORT TSTMS. DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY TEND TO KEEP COVERAGE IN THE ISOLD-WDLY SCT RANGE AND UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO GROW SLOWLY. TCU PROFILER-DERIVED HODOGRAPH SHOWS A STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 6KM...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED TO 25 KTS IN THE 5-6KM LAYER...BOOSTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE. THUS...ANY TSTM THAT CAN MANAGE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT DEVIATE TO THE S AND SW...OR RIGHT OF THE NWLY MEAN FLOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SWD INTO ECNTRL NM AND THE TX S PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN WITH CONTINUED ISOLD DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS. THE ANTICIPATED ISOLD COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH...HOWEVER. ..RACY.. 09/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 36620310 35550234 34800196 33540169 33100181 33250257 33910319 35760545 36910478 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 8 06:35:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 08 Sep 2006 02:35:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 080637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080637 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-080830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1946 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 AM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV...ERN CA...WRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 080637Z - 080830Z ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS OCCURRED WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLIER AND LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RELATIVELY LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SUGGESTS A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY. LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STARTED EARLIER ACROSS SRN NV AND WILL MOVE INTO LA PAZ AND SWRN YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN AZ SHORTLY. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AND DEVELOP INTO NWRN MARICOPA COUNTY AZ THROUGH 08Z. GREATER WIND THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS MOVING INTO NRN LA PAZ COUNTY WHERE INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE MAINTAINING AN INTENSE UPDRAFT IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. THIS PARTICULAR CELL HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BOW AND HIGHER REFLECTIVITY IS FAVORABLY ORIENTED WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW...THUS DIRECTING STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ATOP TRAILING COLD POOL FROM LAKE HAVASU CITY NNWWD TO LAS VEGAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN PARTIALLY OVERTURNED FROM PRIOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 09/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 34431333 34071270 33721295 33621334 33691403 34091473 34481514 35421573 36331606 36511598 35761537 35051489 34641436 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 8 17:26:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 08 Sep 2006 13:26:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 081729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081727 MIZ000-WIZ000-081930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 081727Z - 081930Z A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NRN UPPER MI AND ACROSS NRN LAKE HURON OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING FAR NRN LOWER MI EXTENDING WSWWD INTO CNTRL WI. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY IS INCREASING AND MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100O TO 1500 ACROSS LOWER MI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION GONE ACROSS LOWER MI AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY STEEP AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON MAKING HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 09/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX... 44608282 43848552 43398789 43598838 44028878 44958831 46048341 45358253  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 8 22:05:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 08 Sep 2006 18:05:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082204 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-082300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LOWER MI/CENTRAL AND SRN WI/NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 082204Z - 082300Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...UNTIL 01-02Z...FROM NERN IA INTO CENTRAL/SRN WI AND PARTS OF LOWER MI. THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN LOWER MI WSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL WI TO FAR SE MN AND FAR NRN IA...WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI WSWWD THROUGH FAR SRN WI TO NRN IA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED ACROSS NERN IA AND ERN WI...NEAR MKE AND AROUND GRB. VEERED SURFACE WINDS TO WLY IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARE LIMITING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THUS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT /NEAR GRB/ APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AS THE FRONT MOVED INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THEN QUICKLY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS...RESULTING IN MAINLY A HAIL THREAT. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION IS LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH AREA WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATING WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...DEEP WLY WINDS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL. ..PETERS.. 09/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 44398961 44458825 44428689 44368520 44318464 43538442 42798503 42478626 42478776 42508942 42429068 42489237 42409340 42939359 43249353 43539185 44109033 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 8 22:28:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 08 Sep 2006 18:28:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 082231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082229 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-090030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA/SRN NV/NW AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 082229Z - 090030Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS... LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN APPROACHING JET STREAK IN THE WAKE OF THE IMPULSE NOW ACROSS NW NM. SFC OBS ACROSS SRN CA INDICATE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING AROUND 15 DEGREES. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED ACROSS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH APPROACHES. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MID LEVEL ROTATION WITH STORM OVER SAN BERNARDINO CO. AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S. LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE MORE LIKELY WITH HIGH TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLD NATURE OF STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 09/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 33801390 33751619 35621682 36531492 36221231 34451266  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 9 07:24:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 09 Sep 2006 03:24:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 090727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090726 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-090930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 090726Z - 090930Z ISOLATED VIGOROUS TSTMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PARTS OF NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT EARLY TODAY. AREAL EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING SRN CA APPEARS TO BE ACTING ON VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CO RIVER VALLEY EARLY TODAY. RESULTING ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SRN MOHAVE COUNTY AZ...AS WELL AS WASHINGTON COUNTY UT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION... AND MODEST EFFECTIVE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 20-30KT...WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT STORM UPDRAFTS APPEAR POSSIBLE. GREATEST THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SEVERE HAIL OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY CELL MERGERS. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 09/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF... 37841389 37801291 36781242 34471174 33991245 34021370 34221458 36031464 37301456  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 9 17:11:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 09 Sep 2006 13:11:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091713 VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-091815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...NRN PA...WRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 091713Z - 091815Z AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN NY AND NRN PA...HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO FAR NRN NY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NY AND NRN PA. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. HOWEVER...A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED AND LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. ..BROYLES.. 09/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 42717306 41427436 40897675 40947800 41437853 42007830 42677551 43927474 44277381 43717274  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 9 18:48:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 09 Sep 2006 14:48:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091850 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091850 PAZ000-OHZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...NW PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091850Z - 092015Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN OH AND NW PA. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM LAKE ERIE TO FAR NRN IND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. WITH THE JET AXIS NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK NEAR THE FRONT SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY KEEP A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 09/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX... 40817995 40618226 40778412 41178444 41428428 41578382 41608283 41688053 41617976  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 9 19:12:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 09 Sep 2006 15:12:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 091914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091914 AZZ000-092115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 091914Z - 092115Z ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AZ. A WW SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED. MORNING CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA...LEAVING A WEST TO EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN ITS WAKE /PER VIS IMAGERY/. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTING AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY NOSING NEWD ALONG THE GILA RIVER VALLEY. WIND PROFILES IN THIS REGION ARE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...WITH MID-LEVEL WLYS OF 30 KTS OR GREATER CONFINED IN A NARROW ZONE FURTHER N PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...AMPLE INSTABILITY VIA STRONG SURFACE HEATING /SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ ACROSS THE SW DESERTS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 09/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 33210972 32671010 32451105 32301262 32571382 33521409 34311374 34501239 34341074 33970982 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 9 19:58:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 09 Sep 2006 15:58:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 092001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092000 KSZ000-092130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 092000Z - 092130Z HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A NNE TO SSW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCED ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR A MAXIMUM IN INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1200 TO 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP. AS A RESULT...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SFC HEATING...A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 09/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD... 37440114 39020064 39779986 39359902 37919973 37140007 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 10 19:02:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 10 Sep 2006 15:02:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101903 TXZ000-102000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 101903Z - 102000Z THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF SPS...MAY INTENSIFY AND ALSO DEVELOP WWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MONITORING AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AT 19Z...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WEST OF ADM TO 40 S OF SPS...AND THEN RECURVED BACK WNWWD TO A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NORTHEAST OF PVW. THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM 50 SW OF SPS TO 35 SW ADM...MOVING SEWD AT 20 KT. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP WWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ELY SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. THIS SHEAR ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION...WITH HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT COLD POOL AND SEWD PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY...THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE BGS-ABI-MWL AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..IMY.. 09/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 34490135 34180071 33600010 33559862 33649776 32349774 31989893 32200022 33050107 34180153  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 10 22:44:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 10 Sep 2006 18:44:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102246 KSZ000-NEZ000-102345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS .. EXTREME SE NE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 102246Z - 102345Z SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST KS POSING A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED NW TO SE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS IN AN AREA WITH MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 25 KTS AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE SUPPORTED STORM ROTATION AND SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL OF UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER. MEDIOCRE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS POSSIBLE AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT STORMS THAT MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ..SCHNEIDER.. 09/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39939680 40169631 40019577 39709526 39439508 39009504 38789534 38849586 39299634 39559656 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 10 23:27:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 10 Sep 2006 19:27:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102329 TXZ000-OKZ000-110030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 765... VALID 102329Z - 110030Z ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SURGE A FEW MILES AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS FROM GARZA TO HASKELL COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...SERN PORTIONS OF WW HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER ACTIVITY OVER NCNTRL TX. NEW UPDRAFTS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT OVERALL TRENDS SHOULD DECREASE...ESPECIALLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 09/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 34110233 34479860 32289846 32340237 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 12 22:34:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2006 18:34:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122236 NMZ000-AZZ000-130000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ...SWRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 122236Z - 130000Z UPPER LOW ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER...SW OF GBN WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS EVENING. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NRN OCCIDENTAL RANGE...JUST SOUTH OF THE AZ BORDER. SLY FLOW AT 500MB IS A BIT STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION SO CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD INTO SERN AZ WHERE ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IS NOTED. OTHER STORMS...BUT LESS SHEARED...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SWRN NM. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAIN MAY ULTIMATELY BE THE GREATEST THREAT AS THESE STORMS TRAIN NWD. ..DARROW.. 09/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC... 31201092 31661083 32071117 33170994 33200896 32540833 31670800  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 19 13:57:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 19 Sep 2006 09:57:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191358 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191356 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-191530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN GA AND THE CNTRL/ERN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 191356Z - 191530Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ORGANIZED...BOWING MCS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 1345Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF A BOWING MCS FROM DALE COUNTY IN SERN AL TO BAY COUNTY IN THE FL PNHDL MOVING 270/30 KTS. 12Z TLH SOUNDING INDICATED THAT AMBIENT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH PW VALUES OF 2.1 INCHES AND RESULTANT MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2500 J/KG. THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...PER 12Z RAOBS AND CURRENT VWPS. STILL THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST DUE TO WATER LOADING EFFECTS AND COLD POOL ORGANIZATION ALONG CREST OF BOW. ..MEAD.. 09/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 31248560 31458511 31508400 31288333 30848320 30408325 29948364 29588445 29588503 29848564 30128582 30518565 30738556 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 20 20:04:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 20 Sep 2006 16:04:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202005 COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1989 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN NM...EXTREME NERN AZ...WRN CO...SWRN WY...CENTRAL/ERN UT. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 202005Z - 202230Z CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z ACROSS BROAD SWATH FROM 4-CORNERS AREA NWD TOWARD SWRN WY. SEVERAL BANDS OF ASCENT ARE EVIDENT AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN UT. ONE OF THEM IS MANIFEST AS BROAD AREA OF PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED/STRENGTHENING TSTMS...FROM ERN MOFFAT COUNTY COL SSWWD ACROSS GJT AREA TO 4-CORNERS...BECOMING NARROWER FARTHER SW INTO N-CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY AZ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD OVER NWRN NM...REMAINDER WRN CO...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS SWRN WY. NEXT BAND TO ITS W CONTAINS STRENGTHENING TSTMS FROM VEL SWWD TO WAYNE COUNTY UT...THEN DISCONTINUOUS SWWD TO NEAR PGA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER BUOYANCY ARE FCST TO INCREASE CONCURRENTLY AHEAD OF EACH BAND...AS INSOLATION CONTINUES IN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AREAS...AND AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER VORTEX. INITIAL BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH NARROW AREA OF HEATED/ELEVATED TERRAIN WITH UP TO 200 J/KG MLCAPE...BETWEEN CURRENT POSITION AND SWATH OF DRIER SFC AIR BEGINNING AROUND AN EGE...ASE...GUC...50 E FMN LINE. THEREAFTER ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN BECAUSE AIR MASS BECOMES TOO DRY TO SUSTAIN DEEP BUOYANCY. DAMAGING WIND IS MAIN THREAT. SECOND BAND -- CORRESPONDING CLOSELY TO SFC COLD FRONT POSITION -- WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA BEHIND FIRST WHICH IS NOT AS STRONGLY HEATED...BUT WHICH HAS STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. NET RESULT ALSO WILL BE MLCAPES INCREASING TO 200-400 J/KG. THIS AREA REPRESENTS OVERLAP BETWEEN ERN EDGE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND WRN PORTION STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEARS BECOMING 40-50 KT. MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS. FARTHER W...MORE ISOLATED/POSTFRONTAL ACTIVITY UNDER COLD CORE REGION WILL PRESENT MAINLY HAIL THREAT AMIDST VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT WEAK SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 09/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 35891051 36900971 37610981 37631042 37301152 37981236 39581224 40501037 41640850 41680702 40530637 38480666 36910732 36050867  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 20 20:27:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 20 Sep 2006 16:27:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 202028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202028 TXZ000-NMZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1990 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 202028Z - 202230Z AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...WITH PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF SOUTHWEST TX /NAMELY FROM FORT STOCKTON TO MARFA/ AMIDST A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AT MID AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z MIDLAND RAOB FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUPPORTS A WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS/LEADING MID LEVEL JET AHEAD OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. WIND PROFILER DATA FROM TUCUMCARI/WHITE SANDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS INCREASE OF DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST INTO THIS EVENING...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MODEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODIFIED 12Z MIDLAND RAOB/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTIVE OF MLCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG OR LESS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY PROGRESSIVELY NORTH ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK VICINITY TOWARD/WEST OF LUBBOCK EARLY THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 09/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35220262 35010126 31850161 30560265 30830372 32230355 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 15:47:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 11:47:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211548 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211548 LAZ000-TXZ000-211715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 211548Z - 211715Z BROKEN BAND OF WARM-FRONTAL TSTMS -- INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM SE TX SEWD ACROSS GULF -- IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD ONSHORE SWRN LA THROUGH 18Z. ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR SVR POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL BE NON-DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE IN MOST AREAS...AND ALSO SPEED/DEGREE OF INLAND DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED SOON...AREA MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 15Z MARINE/WARM FRONT POSITION FROM NEAR HOU ESEWD TO SABINE RIVER MOUTH...TO ABOUT 60 SSW ARA...MOVING NNEWD 15-20 KT...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE W OF HOU. MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT ALONG FRONT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN SE OF INTENSE WRN KS CYCLONE. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE LARGEST N OF WARM FRONT...BUT MODIFIED LCH RAOB/VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG MAY EXIST ALONG AND S OF FRONT AS WELL...WHERE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IS MOST LIKELY TO SHIFT INLAND FROM GULF. BUOY DATA AND CRP RAOB INDICATES AIR MASS S OF FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED VERY RICH AND DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID 70S F. RELATIVELY STABLE LAYER AROUND 700 MB IS PROGGED TO COOL AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS...CONCURRENT WITH WARM FROPA AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING. THIS YIELDS MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG COAST FROM BPT AREA EWD THROUGH AND SE OF LCH BY 18Z. ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29059203 29699458 31189410 30489151  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 16:46:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 12:46:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211647 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211647 KSZ000-NEZ000-211815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1992 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN KS. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 211647Z - 211815Z A FEW SMALL SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...NE-E OF DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LOW NOW ADVANCING EWD FROM CO ACROSS WRN KS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER W-CENTRAL KS BETWEEN GLD-GCK...WARM FRONT NEWD BETWEEN HLC-MCK...COLD FRONT SSEWD TO E-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...AND PREFRONTAL DRYLINE/CONVERGENCE LINE FROM THOMAS COUNTY KS SSEWD TO EXTREME NWRN WOODS COUNTY OK. LATTER BOUNDARY CORRESPONDS TO NARROW ARC OF CONVECTION -- INCLUDING A FEW SMALL TSTMS -- BUILDING ATTM FROM SRN SHERIDAN COUNTY SEWD TOWARD EDWARDS COUNTY...WITH CU/TCU SWD ACROSS OK BORDER. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...PRIND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITHIN NARROW CORRIDOR OF CLEARED SKIES AND SFC HEATING...LOCATED BETWEEN CONVERGENCE LINE AND BACK EDGE OF DENSE CLOUD LAYERS COVERING CENTRAL/NRN KS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 64-66 DEG F SFC TEMPS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG TO DEVELOP. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD THROUGH HYS/HLC/RSL/GBD AREAS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG BOUNDARY. VERY TENUOUS BALANCE EXISTS BETWEEN SUPERCELL THREAT AND INABILITY TO SUSTAIN DISCRETE UPDRAFTS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF AMBIENT FLOW AND LIMITED CAPE. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS INTENSE...WITH UP TO 80 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS DETECTED BY HVL PROFILER...CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST 50-60 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. PROFILER/RUC WINDS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH 250-400 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39019962 39390018 39600081 39840073 40010005 39989961 39829905 39399837 38609797 38079799 37809832 37809860  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 19:17:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 15:17:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211918 KSZ000-OKZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1993 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL OK. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 211918Z - 212045Z STG-SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN BAND FROM EXISTING W-CENTRAL KS CONVECTION SSEWD...ROUGHLY ALONG AND E OF I-35/135 CORRIDOR THROUGH NRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL OK. IN ADDITION...GRADIENT GUSTS APCHG CONVECTIVE SVR LIMITS MAY BE LOCALLY/SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BENEATH CONVECTION. SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE DRYLINE CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN OK AND SWRN KS ATTM...EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 35 W HLC THROUGH RUSH COUNTY KS...SSEWD OVER P28...25 W END...20 NW SPS. VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATES MEAN WIND VECTOR AND 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SSW-NNE...WITH STRONG FLOW COMPONENT PARALLEL TO DRYLINE OVER NRN OK AND SRN KS. FLOW ALOFT IS MORE NORMAL TO DRYLINE AND FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE TSTMS FARTHER S ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN SRN OK. HOWEVER DEEP-LAYER LIFT IS MORE UNCERTAIN....WITH STRONGER CAPPING AS INDICTED IN 19Z FTW RAOB. THROUGH 21Z...NARROW CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING -- BEHIND EARLIER CLOUD/PRECIP SWATCH -- WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO BOOST MLCAPES INTO 250-500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG...I.E. 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR VECTORS 60-80 KT IN LMN PROFILER DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. 0-1 KM SRH ABOVE 300 J/KG IS POSSIBLE FOR ANY DISCRETE TSTMS THAT CAN MOVE SUBSTANTIALLY RIGHTWARD -- NEWD OF MEAN WIND. ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 35619788 36729781 37449773 38019793 38839802 38819705 38229663 37249632 36079640 35559646 34589672 34339799  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 19:49:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 15:49:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211949 TXZ000-OKZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN TX. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 211949Z - 212045Z WW REQUIRED. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC DRYLINE. SUPERCELLS WILL POSE INITIAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES...LCL LOWERS AND AMBIENT KINEMATICS STRENGTHEN. ACCORDINGLY...AREAS FROM DAL EWD AND NEWD ACROSS NE TX AND SERN OK ARE BEING UPGRADED TO MDT CATEGORICAL RISK IN 20Z SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK. AT 19Z...SFC WARM FRONT -- DEMARCATING NRN EXTENT OF VERY RICHLY MOIST GULF AIR MASS -- WAS ANALYZED NEAR ACT...LFK...LCH LINE...AND WILL LIFT NNEWD ACROSS I-20 TOWARD RED RIVER...ESPECIALLY FROM DFW METROPLEX EWD. DRYLINE WAS EVIDENT IN SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY FROM W-CENTRAL OK SWD TO ABOUT 20 NNW SPS...THEN SWWD TO TOM GREEN COUNTY TX. COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN OK AND TX SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD CATCH DRYLINE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH COMBINED BOUNDARY MOVING EWD INTO N-CENTRAL TX. AIR MASS TO ITS E WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH SFC HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION BOOSTING MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. CAP EVIDENT IN 19Z FWD RAOB SHOULD ERODE -- WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN MWL-DFW-ACT...AND MORE MOIST LAYER FARTHER E. BY 00Z...MOIST ADVECTION MAY FURTHER BOOST MLCAPES TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NE TX. ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32119835 32369886 33099900 33679849 34829779 34959697 34679542 34529486 33889479 32659463 32269541 32029673  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 19:50:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 15:50:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 211951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211951 COR TXZ000-OKZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...S-CENTRAL/SERN OK. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 211951Z - 212045Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE AREA WW REQUIRED. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC DRYLINE. SUPERCELLS WILL POSE INITIAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES...LCL LOWERS AND AMBIENT KINEMATICS STRENGTHEN. ACCORDINGLY...AREAS FROM DAL EWD AND NEWD ACROSS NE TX AND SERN OK ARE BEING UPGRADED TO MDT CATEGORICAL RISK IN 20Z SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK. AT 19Z...SFC WARM FRONT -- DEMARCATING NRN EXTENT OF VERY RICHLY MOIST GULF AIR MASS -- WAS ANALYZED NEAR ACT...LFK...LCH LINE...AND WILL LIFT NNEWD ACROSS I-20 TOWARD RED RIVER...ESPECIALLY FROM DFW METROPLEX EWD. DRYLINE WAS EVIDENT IN SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY FROM W-CENTRAL OK SWD TO ABOUT 20 NNW SPS...THEN SWWD TO TOM GREEN COUNTY TX. COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN OK AND TX SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD CATCH DRYLINE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH COMBINED BOUNDARY MOVING EWD INTO N-CENTRAL TX. AIR MASS TO ITS E WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH SFC HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION BOOSTING MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. CAP EVIDENT IN 19Z FWD RAOB SHOULD ERODE -- WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN MWL-DFW-ACT...AND MORE MOIST LAYER FARTHER E. BY 00Z...MOIST ADVECTION MAY FURTHER BOOST MLCAPES TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NE TX. ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32119835 32369886 33099900 33679849 34829779 34959697 34679542 34529486 33889479 32659463 32269541 32029673  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 22:00:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 18:00:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212200 OKZ000-KSZ000-212330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 782... VALID 212200Z - 212330Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 782 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL. NEARLY STACKED COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE I-35/135 CORRIDOR FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL OK. SCATTERED MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY...WITH A NUMBER OF TORNADO REPORTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS IN MITCHELL/RUSSELL/LINCOLN COUNTIES. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER MODEST TOTAL CAPE -- GENERALLY 500 J/KG MLCAPE OR LESS -- A RELATIVELY HIGH CONCENTRATION OF 0-3 KM CAPE OF AROUND 100 J/KG AND ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ONGOING STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RAIN COOLED/MORE STABLE AIR BECOMES MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE OCCLUSION. MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OK THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/HAIL AND ENHANCED WIND GUSTS INCREASING. ..GUYER.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID... 39119838 39299775 38239621 37429516 36579491 35579498 35139621 35239710 36919728 37729767  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 21 22:51:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 18:51:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212251 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1996 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0551 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN TX...SERN OK AND WRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 783... VALID 212251Z - 220045Z 22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 985 MB LOW OVER NCNTRL KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND INTO NCNTRL TX JUST WEST OF KABI. A DOUBLE STRUCTURE WARM FRONT EXISTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THE NRN-MOST FEATURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SEWD ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN AR. A MARINE WARM FRONT...A DEMARCATION OF MORE QUALITY TROPICAL MSTR...WAS LIFTING NWD THROUGH NERN TX AND SWRN LA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK MID-LEVEL JETLET MAY BE MIGRATING INTO THE RED RVR REGION ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. MESOANALYSIS TIME SERIES SHOWS THAT A REGION OF MODEST PRESSURE FALLS HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND MAY BE A REFLECTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL JETLET. THOUGH THE CUMULUS ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR FLAT...WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SERN OK AND NERN TX WHERE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN GROWING. IN FACT...A FEW TSTMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION. LATEST RUC IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN INCREASING TSTMS FROM EXTREME NERN TX NEWD INTO WRN AR THROUGH LATE EVENING. MORE QUALITY MSTR WAS LAGGING SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT COULD BECOME A FACTOR IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LATER ON. TSTMS THAT CAN MANAGE TO BECOME ROOTED INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR. RIGHT-MOVING STORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO 250+ M2/S2 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY... INCREASING THE RISK OF TORNADOES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP VCNTY THE RED RVR IN NERN TX AND SERN OK EWD INTO SWRN AR...OR ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RETURNING TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. ..RACY.. 09/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32669853 34489738 34889412 34529352 33279379 32429402 32399573  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 00:50:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 20:50:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220050 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-220245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NCNTRL/NERN TX AND WCNTRL/SWRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 783... VALID 220050Z - 220245Z 21Z VERSION OF THE 4KM WRF HAS BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN DEPICTING STRONGER TSTM INITIATION ACROSS SERN OK FROM HASKELL SWWD TO MARSHALL COUNTIES IN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ENEWD INTO WCNTRL AR LATER THIS EVE. PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE METROPLEX REGION. 00Z MESOANALYSIS TIME-SERIES CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH LA TOWARD THE ARKLATEX WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD ADVECT NWD INTO AT LEAST SERN OK AND SWRN AR BY MIDNIGHT. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DESTABILIZATION...00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WARM NOSE EXISTS JUST ABOVE H7 AND MAY TEMPER OVERALL INSTABILITY VALUES. NONETHELESS...0-1KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES SHOULD STORMS REMAIN ORGANIZED. ACTIVITY ALONG THE NRN END OF THE DEVELOPING LINE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS STORMS MOVE INTO NWRN/NCNTRL AR. STRONGER...LIKELY SFC-BASED STORMS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SERN OK AND WCNTRL/SWRN AR FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AS A RESULT...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/SWRN AR TO THE EAST OF WT 782/783 BY 02-03Z. ..RACY.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34109664 35209525 35659399 35249300 34379280 33899326 33819553  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 00:58:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 20:58:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220058 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS/EASTERN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 782... VALID 220058Z - 220300Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 782 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS/EASTERN OK...WITH THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES/HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE EAST OF WW 782 INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF TORNADO WATCH 782 IN CENTRAL KS...AS OCCLUDED FRONT/DRYLINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE KS TURNPIKE. GRADUAL INFLUX OF MODESTLY RICHER THETA-E IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SOUTHEAST KS...WITH OBJECTIVE DIAGNOSTICS AND 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS REFLECTIVE OF MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 250 J/KG ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS...TO 1000-1250 J/KG ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OK. IN SPITE OF THE MODEST INSTABILITY...HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 MS/S2 OR GREATER WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS QUALITY IS CURRENTLY A CONCERN EAST OF WW 782 /REF 00Z SPRINGFIELD MO RAOB/...WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR. LATEST RUC FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIRMASS MAY MODESTLY DESTABILIZE LATE TONIGHT INTO NORTHWEST AR/FAR SOUTHWEST MO AMIDST A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME. ..GUYER.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36949698 38029531 37299360 36079354 35489480 35139621 35239710  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 04:24:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 00:24:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220425 ARZ000-OKZ000-220630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK AND CNTRL AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 784... VALID 220425Z - 220630Z AIR MASS WAS DESTABILIZING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR LATE THIS EVENING AS MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS ADVECT NWD FROM LA. LONG-LIVED CYCLIC SUPERCELL THAT HAD ITS ROOTS IN SOUTHERN OK...CONTINUES TO THRIVE WITHIN THE ERN-MOST GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE... LINE SEGMENTS TO THE WEST OF KRUE HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MORE DISCRETE WITH THE SRN-MOST CELL TAKING ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...PROBABLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ELY FLOW WITHIN THE RVR VLY. GIVEN THE NWD TRANSPORT OF MORE QUALITY MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO MOST OF AR...CURRENT STORMS MAY VERY WELL REMAIN WITHIN THE ERN-MOST GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE SUPERCELL THREAT INTO CNTRL AR BY 06Z. USING A STORM MOTION OF 260/40...0-1KM SRH DERIVED FROM THE DE QUEEN PROFILER WAS 550+ M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS THAT IF THE STORMS CAN REMAIN ROOTED CLOSE TO THE SFC...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO CNTRL AR THROUGH 06Z. ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER EAST. ..RACY.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... 34029545 36049488 35899241 34019273 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 09:08:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 05:08:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220908 TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...AND PARTS OF SE MO...NW MS...WRN TN INTO EXTREME SW KY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 784... VALID 220908Z - 221015Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 10Z. IN WAKE OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING IS SPREADING THROUGH THE LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE ARKLATEX. THIS IS CAPPING OFF RETURNING TONGUE OF VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS. WHILE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME INHIBITED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...END TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOWER IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHERE STORMS APPEAR BASED NEAR ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE THAT RISK OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LARGE...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BEFORE SLACKING OFF SOME THROUGH MID MORNING. ..KERR.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF... 36609125 36979012 36628907 35848878 34818925 34219030 34009135 34499241 35289280 36039225  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 13:35:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 09:35:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221335 TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-221500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0835 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/NERN TX NEWD INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 221335Z - 221500Z POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING TO THE SW OF WW 785. A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SYNTHESIS OF SURFACE ANALYSIS...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT STORMS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING N OF LIT ARE BEING FORCED BY SWLY 40 KT LLJ AXIS IMPINGING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR RKR TO N OF LIT TO NEAR MEM. MODIFICATION OF 12Z LIT SOUNDING FOR CONDITIONS NOW BEING OBSERVED OVER SWRN AR INDICATES THAT ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY UNCAPPED FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS UPSTREAM...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-450 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 60 KTS /PER LATEST LIT VWP/. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA TODAY. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... 33809544 34859500 35559388 36129214 36329058 36168986 35768931 35218915 34239005 33419219 32969409 33109491  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 16:11:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 12:11:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221611 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221610 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-221745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK INTO SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 221610Z - 221745Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW NE OF TUL ALONG ATTENDANT PRESSURE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM CNTRL MO INTO S-CNTRL OK. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ IS CONTRIBUTING TO NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING FROM NERN OK SURFACE LOW INTO FAR SWRN MO AND THEN MORE SEWD INTO NERN AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BUOYANT WITH HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM SGF SWWD TO E OF TUL...AND AN INCREASING CUMULUS FIELD SWD ACROSS ERN OK. THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE S-CNTRL U.S. SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES SHOULD INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG...DESPITE MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE OBSERVED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34529574 35469557 36479508 37199445 38019352 38099281 37799233 37269234 36399322 35269415 34189463 33799481 34009573  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 17:14:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 13:14:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221715 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221715 TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-221845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR INTO WRN TN AND NWRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 786... VALID 221715Z - 221845Z TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS WRN AND PERHAPS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG. REGIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS AND/OR EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN AR AND NEAR AND NE OF TXK. HERE...THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. WHILE LIT VWP SHOWS THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES OWING TO THE DECREASE IN AIR MASS STABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL TO INITIALLY EXIST ALONG WRN FRINGE OF WW AREA /I.E. FROM E OF FSM TO HRO/ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FREE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN INTO CNTRL AR. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 35129482 35759453 36739347 36809105 36728861 34658886 33888962 33159388 33539501  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 17:49:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 13:49:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221750 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221749 ILZ000-MOZ000-222015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO... CENTRAL AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 221749Z - 222015Z ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MO AND POSSIBLY WCENTRAL IL. FURTHER EAST...CONVECTIVE INITIATION/SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WAIT UNTIL 20Z ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SRN IL. A WW IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY 19Z. LATEST VISIBLE SAT DATA SHOWS CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE ONLY 1-2 HRS AWAY ACROSS ECENTRAL/NERN MO AND WCENTRAL IL ALONG A OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...REINFORCED BY LOW CLOUD COVER...EXTENDING FROM 50 W OF STL SSEWD TO NEAR POF. AS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD IT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION. HOWEVER THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT IN THE WAKE AND TO THE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY SUFFICIENT HEATING AND LIMITED REMAINING CINH ALONG WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND BROAD CONFLUENCE SHOULD SUPPORTING DISCRETE ROTATING TSTMS MOVING NEWD FROM SWRN MO /WW 787/ INTO ERN MO BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 19Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /30 KTS 0-1 KM PER REGIONAL PROFILER DATA/ ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG/ AS EVIDENT BY 16Z SGF SOUNDING ARE EVIDENCE OF AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG TORNADOES. FURTHER NE...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS/LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN OVER CENTRAL IL IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER INSPECTION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA AND MODIFICATION OF 12Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATES SUFFICIENT CINH /100 J/KG/ STILL EXISTS TO DELAY INITIATION AND SVR THREAT IN THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER 20Z. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF... 40638873 40788996 40089123 38829212 38309221 37809182 36939095 36809060 36958976 37258897 38308844 39048843  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 18:11:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 14:11:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221811 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-221945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN SWD INTO NERN MS AND NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 221811Z - 221945Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A DUAL WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH NRN MOST BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MO SEWD INTO WRN TN /NE OF DYR/ AND THEN INTO N-CNTRL AL. THE SRN BAROCLINIC ZONE...NOT AS WELL DEFINED...EXISTED FROM CNTRL AR TO NEAR TUP. TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG ERN FRINGE OF LLJ FROM NRN MS/NWRN AL INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TN WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. CURRENT OKOLONA MS PROFILER SHOWS MODESTLY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 40-45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL AND 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 150 M2/S2. GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTANT LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS WAA PATTERN. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34118972 35118919 35908901 36308887 36408836 36158761 35798707 35138682 34238704 33728763 33428806 33338848 33448918 33698955 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 19:20:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 15:20:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221920 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IND...FAR ERN IA AND SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 221920Z - 222145Z SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS 21Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN IA SEWD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CHI METRO AREA. COPIOUS CLOUD COVER HAS AIDED IN A SLOW WARMUP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/NRN IL AND SERN IA. THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED AROUND 50 J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL IL WHILE THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING INDICATED OVER 100 J/KG OF MLCINH. INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NRN IL AND ERN IA IN THE LAST 1-2 HRS ARE A RESULT OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS JET MAX MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...INCREASING INSOLATION AND DIMINISHING CINH SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES NEAR THE MS RIVER /PER DVN RADAR IMAGERY/. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR /20-30 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY /1000 J/KG OF MLCINH/ WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO SRN WI/NWRN IND BY EARLY EVENING /AFTER 23Z/ IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THESE AREAS OCCURS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 40218838 40309026 40689062 41349093 42099072 43309018 43398908 43348831 43278744 41968681 40498710  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 19:55:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 15:55:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221955 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-222200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SWRN IND...WRN KY AND NWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 221955Z - 222200Z TORNADO WW IS POSSIBLE BY 22Z FOR THE AREA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DOUBLE WARM FRONT STRUCTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH THE NRN MOST BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR FAM IN SERN MO EWD TO OWB IN WRN KY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED RECENTLY BY ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION. FURTHER SOUTH...THE MAIN WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM 10 N OF POF TO 35 NE OF DYR IN NWRN TN. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LIFTING NWD AROUND 15 KTS INTO NWRN TN AND SERN MO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO WRN KY AND FAR SERN IL/SWRN IND OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE MAIN WARM FRONT HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CINH. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS /2 MB IN 2 HRS/ AND THUS STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO SUBSTANTIATED BY RECENT PAH VWP DATA WHICH SHOWS A STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH /40 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR/. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SVR WITHIN 1-2 HRS...AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG TORNADOES. IF ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE 22Z...THEN THE SVR THREAT AND NEED FOR A TORNADO WATCH WOULD FOCUS ON A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN MO AND NCENTRAL AR THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 22Z. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36188922 36538923 38148866 38118806 37968714 37058747 35968796 36038851  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 20:00:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 16:00:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222000 KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-222130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID MS VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH AND SRN LOW PLAINS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 786...787...788... VALID 222000Z - 222130Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AN ENHANCED THREAT OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO INTO NRN AR...FAR WRN TN AND PERHAPS FAR ERN OK. AS OF 1945Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER FRANKLIN...CRAWFORD...WASHINGTON...IRON AND REYNOLDS COUNTIES MO NEAR AND JUST TO THE NE OF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM N OF SGF TO JUST N OF POF INTO NWRN TN /N OF DYR/. ANOTHER INTENSE STORM CLUSTER /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ WAS LOCATED OVER FULTON...IZARD AND STONE COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL AR. MODIFICATION OF EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM LIT AND SGF INDICATES THAT AIR MASS ACROSS SRN MO...AR INTO ERN OK HAS BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. ACCOMPANYING WIND PROFILES INDICATED LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH 45-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. THIS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY LARGER INVOF WARM FRONT OVER SRN MO WHERE 0-1 KM SRH LIKELY EXCEEDS 250-300 M2/S2. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. THIS THREAT IS GREATEST ACROSS NRN AR INTO SRN MO. EXPECT OTHER STORMS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING OVER NWRN AR INTO SWRN MO TO EVOLVE SIMILARLY...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY FROM NEAR LIT NEWD TO NEAR DYR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 35239632 37299536 38449331 39069296 40359172 40468805 37478829 35708879 34358908 33639027 33549152 33769404 33689611  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 20:33:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 16:33:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222034 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-222230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 222034Z - 222230Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME. OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH IN THE NEXT 3+ HRS THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP DATA INDICATED 60-70 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND BETWEEN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED ABOVE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. GIVEN DEPTH OF THE STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SFC /1 KM/ IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE DMGG WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES MARKEDLY. THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 37548655 39418702 39998720 40528642 40448529 39848514 38508457 37848446 37558455 37068463 36948524 36958650 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 21:07:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 17:07:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222108 WIZ000-222315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 222108Z - 222315Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SWRN/SCENTRAL WI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z. LATEST VISIBLE SAT DATA SHOWS CLEARING WAS OCCURRING RELATIVELY RAPIDLY OVER SWRN WI AND FAR NWRN IL AS UPPER JET MAX MOVES BY AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WIDEN ACROSS SRN WI OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS AS A RESULT OF THE EWD MOVING DRY SLOT/CLEARING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ALONG A NEWD MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR OVS SEWD TO JUST NEAR FREEPORT IL AT 21Z. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH /MLCAPES FROM 750-1000 J/KG/ STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /30 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR PER THE MKX VWP/ COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX... 42618782 43178782 43629017 43609058 43299062 42529030 42518790  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 22:07:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 18:07:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222208 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SRN/CENTRAL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788...790... VALID 222208Z - 230015Z CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS /SOME LIKELY SIGNIFICANT/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF WW 788 /SCENTRAL/SERN MO AND SRN IL/ AND ACROSS WRN KY AND EVENTUALLY SWRN IND /WW 790/ OVER THE NEXT 2 HRS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM STL AND PAH INDICATED SEVERAL STRONGLY ROTATING SUPERCELLS. ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION REMAINS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES /0-1 KM SRH UP TO 350 M2/S2/ WITH A FEW DMGG TORNADOES POSSIBLE. MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION OF SIG TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE OVER FAR WRN KY AND SRN IL WHERE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2 AND PRESSURE FALLS /2-3 MB/2 HR/ EXIST. AS SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH WRN KY AND INTO SWRN IND/SERN IL...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIRMASS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MVN TO SOUTH OF EVV TO NEAR BWG. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD AND SUPPORT A DEVELOPING TORNADO THREAT INTO SERN IL/SWRN IND IN THE NEXT FEW HRS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER THE SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LIMITED INTO CENTRAL KY AND THE REST OF SRN IND. FURTHER NORTH...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED SHORT TERM THREAT OF SVR WEATHER IN THE IMMEDIATE STL AREA/ECENTRAL MO...AS VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO APPARENT TOWERING CU ALONG THE SFC CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MO. HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONFLUENCE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL IL. SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 250 M2/S2/ WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 40278819 40318995 40149076 39479160 38279209 37049260 36619248 36619014 36678849 36698761 36808741 38518704 38608858  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 22:37:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 18:37:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222237 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-230030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IND AND SWRN MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 791... VALID 222237Z - 230030Z CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN IL...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED TORNADO THREAT ANTICIPATED OVER THE CHI METRO AREA THROUGH 00Z. ELEVATED SVR HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP NEWD INTO SWRN MI AND NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THOSE AREAS ATTM. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM CHICAGO INDICATES A E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR ORD EWD TO JUST NORTH OF ARR. THREE SEPARATE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. RECENT LOT VWP DATA SHOWED A STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH WITH O-1 KM SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2. THREAT FOR TORNADOES...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...WILL OCCUR WITH THESE SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE EWD ALONG AND INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. FARTHER SOUTH MORE DISORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS IN THE PONTIAC AND BLOOMINGTON AREAS. IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS /STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPH/ WILL FAVOR ISOLATED LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO NWRN IND AND SWRN MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THIS MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL ELEVATED SVR HAIL THREAT WITH ANY DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER THE AREA AND/OR NRN IL SVR STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 42508756 42528922 41859015 40219068 40268979 40278832 40298738 41028738 42448724  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 22:58:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 18:58:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222258 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-230030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK INTO AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 222258Z - 230030Z TORNADO WATCH 786 EXPIRES AT 00Z...BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 40. TORNADO WATCH 787 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z IN ECNTRL OK...NWRN AR AND PARTS OF SWRN MO. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR KSGF SWWD INTO SCNTRL OK. THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY INERT WITH MAIN CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING WITH THE HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS DEEPLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NRN AR. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE FAVORING NORTHERN EDGE OF A SFC THERMAL RIDGE AND ALONG A WARM FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY INITIATION ZONE SHOULD REMAIN FROM ECNTRL OK NEWD INTO NRN AR. BUT...THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR BACKBUILDING STORMS INTO CNTRL AR AND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN ERN/SRN OK AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. TSTMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL HELICITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER AREA. PRIND THAT AREAS FROM INTERSTATE 40 NWD WILL NEED ANOTHER WW BY 00Z. S OF I-40...TSTM COVERAGE OUGHT TO REMAIN LIMITED. ..RACY.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34579595 36039440 36339187 36279028 35319037 34509122 34099244 33999443 34389598  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 23:14:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 19:14:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222315 ALZ000-MSZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS AND NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 789... VALID 222315Z - 230015Z TORNADO WATCH 789 EXPIRES AT 00Z...BUT MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR A LINGERING TORNADO THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BY THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS HAS BEEN WEAKENING ACROSS NRN AL SINCE 2230Z WITH OTHER ISOLD SUPERCELLS MOVING NWD ALONG THE TN/AL BORDER. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE THRIVING ALONG ERN EDGE OF THE LLJ CORE THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT WWD AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DIGS SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. UNTIL THEN...TSTMS CONTINUING ALONG THE RETURNING MARINE/WARM FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN AL MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SHORT TIME FRAME OF THE LINGERING THREAT...A NEW WW DOES NOT SEEM NECESSARY. BUT...A COUPLE OF HOURS EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT WATCH WOULD BE A VIABLE OPTION. ..RACY.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34928917 34828741 34348623 33778624 33468708 33948969  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 22 23:43:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 19:43:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222343 WIZ000-230145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 222343Z - 230145Z ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AND OR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS OVER CENTRAL WI THROUGH 02Z. GIVEN RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF SVR POTENTIAL...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM CENTRAL INTO SERN WI. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL AND WAS DRIVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN IL...WHILE LEAVING SRN WI IN SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER UPPER VORT LOBE WAS ROTATING NWD ACROSS WRN WI. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED LOW TOP TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WITH THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS BEFORE SUFFICIENT STABILIZATION OCCURS THIS EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... 45028866 45238975 44879049 44339016 43948974 43908898 43968845 44598814  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 23 00:31:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 20:31:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230032 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...EXTREME NWRN AR AND SCNTRL/SWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 787... VALID 230032Z - 230200Z TORNADO WATCH 787 HAS AN EXPIRATION OF 02Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS LIKELY...PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ACROSS ERN OK...WRN AR AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN MO. NRN END OF THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED EWD AND WAS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MO SWWD TO NEAR KSGF THEN INTO NERN OK. LOW-LEVEL MSTR WAS BEGINNING TO SURGE BACK NWWD ACROSS SERN OK AND NCNTRL TX IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. RECENTLY...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE FROM ATOKA SWWD INTO BRYAN COUNTIES IN OK WHERE CINH HAS WEAKENED. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE...THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL EXPAND NEWD INTO NWRN/WCNTRL AR THROUGH MID-EVENING. THIS REGION IS SITUATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT BEGINS TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STORMS BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. FARTHER N...IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR ON POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ACROSS SCNTRL/SWRN MO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION WAS INCREASING OVER THESE AREAS...BUT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ..RACY.. 09/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34089647 37739416 38279306 37939153 37059167 36789309 36339370 34079499  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 23 00:50:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 20:50:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 230051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230050 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-230245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO AND WRN/SRN IL...WRN AND CENTRAL KY AND SRN IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788...790... VALID 230050Z - 230245Z THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS /INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS/ WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WW 788 AND INTO WW 790 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER AFTER 02Z...MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF WW 788 WILL LIKELY SEE SUFFICIENT STABILIZATION THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AND A NEW WW IN THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW SUPERCELLS /INCLUDING LEFT SPLITTING STORMS/ MAY MOVE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 788 FROM WW/S 792 AND 787 OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THEREFORE THIS IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A REPLACEMENT WW OVER SERN MO BEFORE 02Z. LATEST VWP DATA INDICATED A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS WRN INTO NRN AR. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL THEREFORE REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NRN AR /SOUTH OF WW 788/. HOWEVER STRONG STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE INTO SRN MO BEYOND 02Z SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. FURTHER NORTH...CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF THE STL METRO AREA SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WW 790 BY AROUND 02Z. CONVECTIVE LINE /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WEAKENING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO/SVR WIND THREAT IN THIS PORTION OF WW 788 BEYOND 02Z. FURTHER EAST...SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS OVER WRN KY AND SERN IL/SWRN IND /WW 790/ AS CONVECTIVE LINES/CELLS MOVES OUT OF SWRN IL AND SERN MO. WITH SFC WARM FRONT IN THE REGION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL KY/FAR SRN IND IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND THUS A NEW WW EAST OF WW 790 IS NOT EXPECTED. ..CROSBIE.. 09/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36718608 38488506 38478697 38508860 40278824 39799064 38969137 36589183 36558932  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 27 19:51:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 27 Sep 2006 15:51:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271951 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR/SRN-SERN MO/FAR SRN IL/FAR WRN KY/FAR WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 271951Z - 272045Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN INTO NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEWD ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO SRN IL/LOWER OH VALLEY. WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN AR INTO FAR SRN IL/WRN KY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SRN EXTENT OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WRN AR. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI/NERN IND SWWD THROUGH SRN IL/SRN MO AND CENTRAL OK. ASCENT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ARE LIKELY SUPPORTING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN AR. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS A MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD WEAKEN THE CINH BY LATE AFTERNOON AIDING IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 09/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37049153 38488880 37708763 35928899 35148989 34889173 35039383 35729427 36399336  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 27 20:15:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 27 Sep 2006 16:15:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 272015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272015 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-272145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN IL/SWRN-ERN IND/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 272015Z - 272145Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING/ BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN INTO WRN IND FROM MIAMI TO VIGO COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG/. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40-45 KT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS... THE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL... AND THUS LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH. ..PETERS.. 09/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX... 38638850 39328761 40178630 40848593 41198533 41348436 40078465 39138543 38298674 38238789  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 28 01:04:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 27 Sep 2006 21:04:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 280104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280104 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/NERN AR/WRN KY/NWRN TN/EXTREME SRN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 801... VALID 280104Z - 280230Z STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW 801...BUT DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE LINE -- WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS -- NOW EXTENDING FROM SRN IN WSWWD INTO SERN MO/NERN AR. STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY -- WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. WITH DIURNAL COOLING NOW UNDERWAY...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY-ELEVATED WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF MARGINAL HAIL -- SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OH VALLEY REGION OF NWRN KY. ..GOSS.. 09/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... 36309186 36919023 37948770 38678693 38788627 37958599 37128659 35848924 35819102