[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 271044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271043 
MSZ000-LAZ000-271215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...FAR SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 271043Z - 271215Z

AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS IN A LINE MOVING ACROSS SRN LA. THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW LATE TONIGHT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN MS
WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD INTO WRN LA. A LARGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN MS
WHICH HAS CONFINED THE WARM SECTOR TO A SMALL AREA IN SERN LA. SFC
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ORLEANS ARE BACKED WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRONG 50 KT WINDS AROUND 700 MB IS CREATING A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL WINDS
HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN LA. THE SHEAR AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR
TORNADO THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS. ALTHOUGH SRN MS IS
CURRENTLY STABILIZED BY RAINFALL...CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP
THE WARM SECTOR TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS FAR SRN MS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS RESULTING IN MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THERE AROUND
DAYBREAK.

..BROYLES.. 10/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

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