[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Oct 27 04:49:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 270453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270452 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 840...

VALID 270452Z - 270615Z

04Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 1002 MB LOW OVER NWRN OK WITH A DRYLINE
ARCING SWD THROUGH ERN OK...DALLAS AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT IN CNTRL
TX.  A PRE-DRYLINE CONFLUENCE ZONE EXISTED FROM NERN TX SWWD INTO
SCNTRL TX WITH A MARINE WARM FRONT HUGGING THE UPPER TX COAST.

MULTIPLE LINES OF TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
POSITIVE-TILT UPPER LOW.  PRIMARY LINEAR SEGMENT WITHIN SVR TSTM
WATCH 840 WAS MOVING SEWD INTO THE UPPER TX COAST COUNTIES...WHERE
DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER WAS WARMEST.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE SEWD
INTO WCNTRL LA AND THE JASPER TX VCNTY THROUGH 07Z.  ONCE ACTIVITY
MOVES BEYOND THE LA BORDER...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LIKELY LESSENING THE SVR RISKS.  UNTIL
THEN...DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SERN TX...PARTICULARLY FROM JASPER TX VCNTY NWD.

PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS SPREADING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
ATTM.  A FEW TSTMS WERE TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM WRN AR/ERN OK SWD INTO FAR NE TX. THOUGH THE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...MEAGER LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO KEEP ANY SVR THREATS LIMITED TO
ISOLD...MARGINALLY SVR HAILSTONES.  

IN SUMMARY...ASIDE FROM A SHORT-TERM LINGERING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ACROSS ECNTRL TX/UPPER TX COAST...IT APPEARS THE SVR
THREATS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS WW 840.

..RACY.. 10/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...EWX...

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