[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Oct 26 20:59:56 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 262103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262103 
OKZ000-KSZ000-262230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SRN KS AND EXTREME NRN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 262103Z - 262230Z

ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING SUPERCELL THREAT -- IS
INCREASING INVOF KS/OK BORDER FROM S DDC EWD TO VICINITY PNC. 
ACTIVITY MAY BUILD ESEWD FROM RECENT DEVELOPMENT SW DDC...AND/OR
INITIATE OVER KS/OK BORDER AREA S-SE OF ICT.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN MEADE
COUNTY KS AND WOODWARD COUNTY OK...WHICH IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO
MORE PRONOUNCED/DISCRETE CYCLONE OVER NWRN/N-CENTRAL OK THROUGH
REMAINDER AFTERNOON.  CONVERGENCE LINE IS EVIDENT IN SFC DATA AND
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM NEAR GCK...SEWD THROUGH MEADE COUNTY
LOW...THEN ESEWD AS QUASISTATIONARY FRONT TO KS/OK BORDER NW OF BVO.
 AS LOW STRENGTHENS...ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED
BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES...PARTICULARLY INVOF CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ALSO
WILL MARK NRN EDGE OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR VARIES
FROM 35-50 KT ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG JUST N
OF BOUNDARY.  NARROW AREA OF OPTIMAL BUOYANCY/SHEAR OVERLAP SHOULD
PERSIST INVOF BOUNDARY.  RUC SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR SFC OBS IN
AREA...INDICATE MLCAPES 250-500 J/KG WITHIN PERSISTENT AREA OF CU
EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY OVER OSAGE/KAY COUNTIES OK AND COWLEY COUNTY
KS.  THESE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INFLOW PARCELS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
MORE ELEVATED WITH WNWWD DISTANCE ALONG MAIN CONVERGENCE LINE ACROSS
SW KS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

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