[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Oct 26 11:19:53 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 261123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261122 
COZ000-261615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN CO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 261122Z - 261615Z

HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AT 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD
FROM DENVER METRO AREA AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE INTO COS AREA BY
12-14Z...WHILE SIMILAR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FURTHER
SWD ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PUB REGION
BY 15-18Z.  

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY 15Z...AS NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO 25-40 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...CONTINUES
TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW AS SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S EARLY
THIS MORNING INTO SRN CO...AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT RESULTS IN DYNAMIC
COOLING OF THE COLUMN. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ON TRACK
PER 00Z/06Z NAM AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO MOVE ESE ALONG NM/CO
BORDER INTO NERN NM BY 18Z.  THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS IN THE
1-3 KM LAYER BECOMING MORE NORMAL TO THE ERN SLOPES/FRONT RANGE. 
THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  06Z
NAM/09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WITHIN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-12 TO -17 C/...ENHANCING
SNOWFALL RATES INITIALLY FROM DEN-COS AREAS THROUGH 15Z...AND THEN
SWD INTO PUB REGION FROM 15-18Z.  DENDRITIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

..PETERS.. 10/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

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