[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Oct 16 10:30:26 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 161032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161032 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-161200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST EWD THROUGH SRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 827...828...

VALID 161032Z - 161200Z

THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES
ACROSS WW/S 827 AND 828.  THIS THREAT IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY
SHIFT N OF WW 827 AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY.

10Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN DRT AND JCT
WITH ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD INTO NERN
TX.  ASSOCIATED MARINE WARM FRONT EXTENDS GENERALLY EWD FROM THIS
LOW TO N OF HOU TO BPT TO NEAR LCH INTO FAR SERN LA.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT CONCURRENTLY
LIFTING NWD THROUGH SERN TX AND SWRN LA.

AS OF 1015Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS
FROM NEAR HOU EWD TO NEAR AND N OF BPT...AS WELL AS E AND NE OF LCH
AND NEAR AND S OF MSY. LOCAL VWPS INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY LLJ
AXIS EXISTS BETWEEN HOU AND LCH WHICH IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 350-450 M2/S2. 
MOREOVER...RECENT BPT OBSERVATION INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS /4.2 MB PER 3 HR/ AND GUSTY SELY WINDS...INDICATIVE
OF STRONG FORCING AND TURBULENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING OCCURRING
ALONG LLJ AXIS.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE PRESENCE OF A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER...THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
MAINTENENCE OF SUPERCELLS /SOME TORNADIC/ ALONG AND S OF MARINE WARM
FRONT AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NWD.

..MEAD.. 10/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

29039712 30259686 30869602 30749387 30699140 30368954
30148883 28888873 28358945 28879239 28729443 27879628 