[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Oct 16 06:24:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 160626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160626 
LAZ000-MSZ000-160800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 160626Z - 160800Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

AS OF 06Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES IN
EXISTENCE ACROSS ERN TX INTO LA.  IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE METROPLEX SEWD TO NEAR MSY WITH A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT /DELINEATING TRUE MARITIME AIR MASS/ STRETCHED FROM NEAR
OR JUST N OF HOU ESEWD TO JUST OFF THE LA COAST.  NEW ORLEANS RADAR
DATA INDICATE SMALL SUPERCELLS OVER LAFOURCHE AND TERREBONNE
PARISHES AS OF 0615Z WITH A MOVEMENT OF 175/25 KT.

INSPECTION OF RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE
LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT BY 08-09Z THE THREAT OF MORE
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE AS MARITIME BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD. 
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WILL OFFSET MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 10/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

30349210 30649184 30809148 30599050 30338971 29748913
28958929 28859017 29329168 