[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Oct 15 20:00:57 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 152003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152002 
TXZ000-NMZ000-152130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN NM INTO SWRN/WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825...

VALID 152002Z - 152130Z

CONTINUE WW.  SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS/THE BIG BEND REGION.

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BECOME MINIMAL WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.  MIXED
LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 500 J/KG...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SUPPORTED BY OROGRAPHY AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS ARE WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST STRONG
MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS.

..KERR.. 10/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

31790645 32390564 32040394 32450268 31320203 30320200
29510240 28900325 29300490 30720593 