[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 071118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071118 
VAZ000-NCZ000-071245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 AM CDT SAT OCT 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 071118Z - 071245Z

LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS INDICATED ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SERN
VA.  WW NOT EXPECTED AS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN AREAL
EXTENT.

SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ATTM OVER EXTREME SERN VA...WITH A VERY
SMALL ZONE OF MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INLAND ACROSS A
SMALL PORTION OF SERN VA WITHIN ELY FLOW JUST N OF LOW.  THOUGH
LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN WEAK/NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC...AOB 500 J/KG
MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE -- ELEVATED ABOVE A SLIGHTLY-STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER -- IS INDICATED.

WITHIN AREA OF ELY/NELY SURFACE FLOW N OF LOW...STRONGLY-VEERING
WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT IS YIELDING SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. 
THOUGH A SUPERCELL STORM MOVED ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...THIS STORM HAS WEAKENED SINCE MOVING
ONSHORE IN THE CITY OF HAMPTON.  

LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS LITTLE HAIL THREAT. 
HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO SPIN-UP OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND GUST
COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT SUPERCELL STORM WHICH MAY
EVOLVE/MOVE WNWWD ACROSS SERN VA.  THOUGH THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST
FOR A FEW HOURS...SURFACE LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS UPPER LOW RETROGRADES
SWWD -- THUS RESULTING IN A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT LATER
TODAY.

..GOSS.. 10/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

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