[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 051911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051911 
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-052015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT THU OCT 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM ERN WV INTO NWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 051911Z - 052015Z

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS FROM WRN VA...SWWD INTO ERN TN HAS CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTED
TO RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION.  IN ADDITION TO OROGRAPHICAL
AFFECTS...LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE APPEARS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE VA/NC
BORDER...ARCING SWWD INTO ERN TN.  WITH WEAK-MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR
IN PLACE...IT APPEARS HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN MAINTAINING PSEUDO-ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS THAT SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SEWD BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.  PROSPECT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR MARGINAL AND SEVERE WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

..DARROW.. 10/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

37468281 37028019 35977976 35608095 36178205 35888348
36218457 

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