[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Oct 4 11:03:50 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 041103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041103 
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-041230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY AND NWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 041103Z - 041230Z

SQUALL LINE APPROACHING WRN NY MAY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE ONTARIO SWWD INTO
EXTREME SRN ONTARIO CONTINUES MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT AND IS
APPROACHING EXTREME WRN NY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE...INSTABILITY
IS VERY LIMITED. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM SRN LOWER
MI NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO. GIVEN THE STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W OF THE LEADING LINE...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT
EWD DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FAST ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE THREAT THIS MORNING. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL EXIST MAINLY AS THE LINE MOVES INTO WRN NY. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT
IS LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 10/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

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41828093 