[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 041020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041020 COR
MIZ000-041115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 041020Z - 041115Z

CORRECTED FOR AREA AFFECTED BY MD

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A HAIL THREAT OVER CNTRL
AND SRN LOWER MI. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS STORMS
BEGIN TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OR ORGANIZATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
HURON SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL LOWER MI INTO EXTREME SRN WI. PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EXIST S OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MUCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG
WITH 850MB-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. STORMS CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EWD
INTO SRN ONTARIO. WIND FIELDS REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER.
HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND STORMS
CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY ORGANIZED. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MUCH OF
THE REMAINING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE EXHAUSTED BY
ONGOING STORMS. STORMS OVER LOWER MI MAY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR
MAINLY HAIL...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER
W ACROSS SRN WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

..DIAL.. 10/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

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