[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 040707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040707 
MIZ000-WIZ000-040800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 810...

VALID 040707Z - 040800Z

THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAINING STORMS MAY INCREASE OVER CNTRL LOWER MI DURING NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WITH COLD POOL AND COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE
EXTENDS FROM NERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH CNTRL LOWER MI AND IS MOVING
SEWD AT 35 KT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE. A STRONG
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING
GUST FRONT SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN THE MCS NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR IS THE STABLE...DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH COULD
LIMIT THE ABILITY FOR SEVERE GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE.

STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE SWRN PORTION OF
THE LINE OVER CNTRL LOWER MI. THESE STORMS MAY SLOW THEIR SWD
MOVEMENT AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS STORMS
TRAIN FROM W TO E.

..DIAL.. 10/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

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