[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Oct 1 03:40:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 010340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010340 
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-010545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SAT SEP 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TN...EXTREME NRN AL...NRN
MS...E-CENTRAL/NERN AR.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 010340Z - 010545Z

BKN LINE OF  TSTMS IS POSSIBLE BY 05Z...BISECTING TN FROM NE-SW AND
PERHAPS BACKBUILDING OVER PORTIONS ERN AR/NWRN MS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE SEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STG GUSTS.

REFLECTIVITY AND IR IMAGERY EACH INDICATE CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG
WSW-ENE ORIENTED LINE FROM NERN MIDDLE TN ACROSS BNA AREA...TO
VICINITY DYR.  THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING CLOSE TO 850 MB COLD
FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD OVER TN AND ERN AR DURING
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND INTO NRN PORTIONS MS/AL AFTER ABOUT 06Z. 
850-925 MB RAOB ANALYSES FROM 00Z INDICATE NARROW WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER AND UPSTREAM -- SSW-W -- OF DISCUSSION AREA.  MOIST
AXIS IN THAT LAYER SHOULD REMAIN PARALLEL TO AND JUST AHEAD OF 850
MB FRONT...WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED MUCAPES
RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER MID TN TO 2500 J/KG INVOF MEM. 
THIS FAVORS DEVELOPMENT PATICULARLY FROM MID TN WSWWD TOWARD ERN AR
AND NRN MS.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR ORGANIZED...POTENTIALLY
ROTATING STORMS WITH 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER SRN
TN...WEAKENING TO 35-45 KT OVER ERN AR AND NWRN MS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

35829019 35848886 36088722 36468543 36378468 35478512
34838614 34029021 34069117 35089118 