[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Oct 27 00:17:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 270020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270020 
OKZ000-KSZ000-270245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 270020Z - 270245Z

MAINLY ELEVATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN BUTLER AND
COWLEY COUNTIES IN SE KS...AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THESE STORMS FORMED IN AN AREA OF WEAK
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ARE LOCATED IN A REGION OF
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. 

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATES SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEASTERN OK ALONG A DRYLINE
LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM PNC TO MLC...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
HAS YET TO FORM.. LATEST RUC MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT SOME STORMS
WILL FORM IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG THE DRYLINE...PERHAPS AS EARLY
AS 03Z...AS THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE
AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF IT.

WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE. A WEATHER WATCH IS THEREFORE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THE MOMENT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..LEVIT.. 10/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

37069772 37499762 37769749 37919734 38149702 38169633
38149572 38089516 37519497 37179490 36909490 36629488
36279479 36069480 35699471 35349462 34979465 34589467
34629534 34649584 34869611 35209608 35459615 35989650
36399680 36559707 36749742 36949766 