[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Oct 22 08:30:41 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220831 
FLZ000-ALZ000-221000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF WRN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 220831Z - 221000Z

ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WATERSPOUT THREAT EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE
DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS /UNTIL ABOUT 12Z/.  THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD
ENE TO THE AQQ/TLH AREAS INTO FL BIG BEND AFTER 12Z.  GIVEN ISOLATED
THREAT...WW IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED COASTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
CONTINUED TO MOVE NWD...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDED SEWD FROM A LOW OVER
SERN MS THROUGH FAR SWRN AL TO ALONG THE WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST. 
DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...MOIST AIR MASS RESIDING ALONG/S OF THIS
BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S IS MAINTAINING A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES /35-40
KT/ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHILE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2
PER EGLIN AFB VAD/ INDICATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW LEVEL
ROTATION.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS OFFSHORE OF
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...1. LESS THAN 5 MILES FROM COASTAL OKALOOSA
COUNTY AND 2. 20-25 MILES SW OF COASTAL BAY COUNTY.  LOW LEVEL
ROTATION WAS NOTED WITH THESE STORMS...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS TO MOVE ONSHORE.  INSTABILITY DECREASES NWD AWAY FROM
THE COAST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INLAND SEVERE THREAT.

..PETERS.. 10/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

30198519 29768453 29248489 29358552 29878621 30018707
30098745 30418752 30608744 30618688 30638640 30568570 