[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Oct 21 23:38:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 212339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212339 
LAZ000-220115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 212339Z - 220115Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE CNTRL COAST OF LA AS A
SUPERCELL MOVES ONSHORE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUMONT EWD
ALONG THE COAST OF LA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
MID 70S F WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED JUST
OFFSHORE. SFC WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS COMBINED
WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING SHEAR PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CURRENTLY
EXISTS 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF MORGAN CITY LA AND THIS STORM SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS CELL AS IT MOVES ACROSS TERREBONNE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

..BROYLES.. 10/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

29208943 29139061 29279157 29429162 29619165 29999145
30059065 29938982 29828941 