[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 201951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201951 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-202145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...CT...RI...MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 201951Z - 202145Z

MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.

A NARROW LOW TOPPED LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM WRN MA
SWD THROUGH CNTRL LONG ISLAND MOVING ENEWD AT 40 KT. AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST HOUR AS THE LINE
MOVED INTO THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE LOW
OVER EXTREME ERN NY WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NEWD THIS
AFTERNOON PROMOTED BY ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AN EJECTING UPPER
JET MAX. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WHERE MLCAPE IS AOB 300 J/KG DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. GRADIENT FLOW NORMAL TO THE LINE IN POST FRONTAL
ZONE HAS STRENGTHENED AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WHERE HIGHER MOMENTUM JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE CAN BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 10/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

41807088 41107193 40727301 41467318 42437303 42847132
42507077 

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