[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Oct 16 12:50:18 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 161252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161251 
LAZ000-TXZ000-161415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL TX INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 161251Z - 161415Z

SUPERCELL AND INHERENT TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF WW
829 BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BECOME
NECESSARY AT THAT TIME.

12Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WARM FRONT /DELINEATING TRUE
MARITIME AIR MASS/ CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD...EXTENDING FROM
JUST S OF UTS ESEWD TO N OF BPT...LCH AND LFT. 
MEANWHILE...SECONDARY WARM FRONT STRETCHES SEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO FAR SERN MS.  BASED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THAT
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS SITUATED S OF MARINE WARM FRONT OWING
TO VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.  AS SUCH...SRM RADAR DATA
SHOW INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE LOCATED VERY NEAR TO THIS BOUNDARY FROM
HARDIN COUNTY WWD INTO SAN JACINTO AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IN TX AND
BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SWRN LA.

FARTHER TO THE N...STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BASED ON 12Z
SHV/JAN SOUNDINGS...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
SURFACE BASED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD LATER THIS MORNING.

..MEAD.. 10/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

31529507 31939509 32349432 32279301 32089225 31759204
31529230 31519273 31389343 31239379 31119464 