[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 142324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142324 
TXZ000-NMZ000-150030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN TX AND EXTREME SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 142324Z - 150030Z

MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WRN
TX AND EXTREME SERN NM DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE ADVECTED LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO WRN
TX...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE RESULTING IN MUCAPES OF ONLY
500-1000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBERS ACROSS SWRN TX
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A JET MAX AND INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SPREADS INTO THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO ROTATE AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE 3/4 TO 1
INCH SIZE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

..IMY.. 10/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

30360255 30030435 31510531 32690296 32340202 31330154
30930141