[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Oct 14 15:49:18 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 141551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141551 
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-141745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ARIZONA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 141551Z - 141745Z

A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE 
HIGHLY LOCALIZED SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF CURRENT THREAT.  BUT...
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE STILL ROTATING AROUND ITS SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  SUPPORTED
BY DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
THE LOWER DESERTS...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING...NOW PIVOTING IN ARC ACROSS
CENTRAL ARIZONA /INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AND FLAGSTAFF AREAS/. 
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ONGOING BENEATH FAVORABLE DIVERGENT QUADRANT
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY
ARIZONA INTO CLARK COUNTY NEVADA /INCLUDING THE LAS VEGAS
AREA/...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE INSOLATION
IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION.

BENEATH 40-50 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION.  HOWEVER...ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WEAK MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY.
 CAPE IN GENERAL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING COULD SUPPORT A
COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS...POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SUPERCELL
OR TWO.  GUSTY WINDS/HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE
LIMITS SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  BUT...AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN HIGHEST IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS/NORTH OF THE LOWER DESERTS.

..KERR.. 10/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

35911538 36661488 37111343 36871154 36311078 35541035
34311041 32801142 33111206 34071207 34621281 34981460 