[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Oct 14 07:03:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 140705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140705 
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-140830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA / SRN NV / NWRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 140705Z - 140830Z

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS OF 0645Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO ORGANIZED TSTMS
DISPLAYING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS 40-50 MILES S OF LAS MOVING
180/25-30 KT. LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS IN WHICH THESE TWO MORE
INTENSE CELLS ARE EMBEDDED APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING NEAR AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE SE OF EED NNWWD TO ALONG THE
CA/NV BORDER...AND FORCED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD THROUGH
THE LOWER CO VALLEY.  AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER VEERING TO SSELY IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH 40-50 KTS
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  

THROUGH 0830Z...THE GREATEST THREAT OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL AND
PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS CLARK
COUNTY NV INTO WRN MOHAVE COUNTY AZ WITHIN A SMALL AXIS OF MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE SMALL SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF THIS
THREAT.

..MEAD.. 10/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...

35141533 35691601 36501604 37111551 37121441 36551364
35491377 34961393 34831437 34821469 