[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 101628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101628 
TXZ000-101800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX AND UPPER TX COASTAL AREA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 821...

VALID 101628Z - 101800Z

LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS SERN TX TOWARD THE UPPER
COAST. DOWNSTREAM...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT AS
THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE HOUSTON
AREA.  MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FEED THE APPROACHING
STORMS AND LIKELY SUPPORT A TSTM THREAT INTO THE HOUSTON METRO AREA
BEFORE 18Z.  

STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR HOUSTON AS
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS.  THIS IS GENERALLY IN
THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT AND STRONGER STORMS SHOULD TRACK IN THIS
DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  TRENDS IN THE HGX VWP
SUGGESTS THAT 0-1KM SHEAR WAS INCREASING TO ABOVE 150 M2/S2 FOR A
DISCRETE EWD MOVING STORM.  THUS...WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS...AN ISOLD TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH
INDIVIDUAL STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCS.

MOST OF THE TSTMS WILL BE CLEARING THE TORNADO WATCH BY 17-18Z.  ANY
SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WILL BE ISOLD AND LIMITED TO A FAIRLY SMALL
AREA.  AFTER CONSULTING WFO HGX...A DECISION WILL BE MADE ON WHETHER
TO ISSUE A NEW WATCH DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER TX COASTAL AREA.

..RACY.. 10/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

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