[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Oct 10 14:29:06 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 101431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101431 
TXZ000-101630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 821...

VALID 101431Z - 101630Z

14Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DOUBLE STRUCTURE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN
TX.  INITIAL SURGE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WAS SITUATED FROM VCNTY
HOUSTON NWWD INTO THE KCLL AREA.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER QUALITY MARITIME
MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING NWD INTO THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND THE KSAT
REGION.

LINEAR MCS THAT EVOLVED ACROSS CNTRL TX WEAKENED WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...BUT REMAINS STRONG FROM THE KAUS/KBAZ REGION NEWD TOWARD
KCLL.  SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BAND
OF TSTMS WAS RESULTING IN MORE DISCRETE TSTMS VCNTY LOCKHART AND LA
GRANGE. 

STRONGER TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONTS AND TRACK
ESEWD INTO SERN TX THROUGH THE MORNING.  THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS VEERED OVER SCNTRL TX...THE LDB
PROFILER SUGGESTS THAT 0-1KM SRH FOR AN EWD MOVING STORM WAS AROUND
150-175 M2/S2. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WITH THE
STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY CROSS
THE WARM FRONTS.

..RACY.. 10/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

29779882 30529818 32139589 31569454 30559426 29489522
29079673 