[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Oct 10 03:41:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 100344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100344 
TXZ000-100545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 PM CDT MON OCT 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 100344Z - 100545Z

SOME AREAS FROM THE TRANS-PECOS EWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND
NWD TO PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A NEW SEVERE
TSTM WATCH SHORTLY.

STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT ENEWD
FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. STRONG TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FROM SRN NM TO THE
TRANS-PECOS REGION ATTM. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
FORCING WERE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MASS TRANSPORT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM 15 S SEP
 TO 30 S FST. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. SHEAR ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND PERSISTENCE. GREATER SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE HAIL FROM CELLS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT AND WITH
ACCESS TO MOIST INFLOW CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE...FROM WEAK FRONTAL
WAVE OVER PECOS COUNTY SEWD...COULD BE NEAR SURFACE-BASED AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.

..CARBIN.. 10/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30399835 30000102 30600134 32140118 32460095 32580044
32699956 32429867 31699796 