From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 1 03:40:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 30 Sep 2006 23:40:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010340 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-010545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 PM CDT SAT SEP 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TN...EXTREME NRN AL...NRN MS...E-CENTRAL/NERN AR. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 010340Z - 010545Z BKN LINE OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE BY 05Z...BISECTING TN FROM NE-SW AND PERHAPS BACKBUILDING OVER PORTIONS ERN AR/NWRN MS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STG GUSTS. REFLECTIVITY AND IR IMAGERY EACH INDICATE CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG WSW-ENE ORIENTED LINE FROM NERN MIDDLE TN ACROSS BNA AREA...TO VICINITY DYR. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING CLOSE TO 850 MB COLD FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD OVER TN AND ERN AR DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...AND INTO NRN PORTIONS MS/AL AFTER ABOUT 06Z. 850-925 MB RAOB ANALYSES FROM 00Z INDICATE NARROW WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER AND UPSTREAM -- SSW-W -- OF DISCUSSION AREA. MOIST AXIS IN THAT LAYER SHOULD REMAIN PARALLEL TO AND JUST AHEAD OF 850 MB FRONT...WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED MUCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER MID TN TO 2500 J/KG INVOF MEM. THIS FAVORS DEVELOPMENT PATICULARLY FROM MID TN WSWWD TOWARD ERN AR AND NRN MS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR ORGANIZED...POTENTIALLY ROTATING STORMS WITH 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER SRN TN...WEAKENING TO 35-45 KT OVER ERN AR AND NWRN MS. ..EDWARDS.. 10/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... 35829019 35848886 36088722 36468543 36378468 35478512 34838614 34029021 34069117 35089118  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 3 23:06:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 03 Oct 2006 19:06:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032306 WIZ000-MNZ000-040030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL MN INTO CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 807... VALID 032306Z - 040030Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER MUCH OF MN WITHIN WW 807...IN WAKE OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER NOW CROSSING THE MN/WI BORDER. HOWEVER...THREAT IS INCREASING OVER MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL WI. A NEW WW IS LIKELY. SEVERE STORMS NOW MOVING INTO NWRN WI WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE AND WILL CONTINUE ESEWD...POSSIBLY TURNING MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH TIME. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH TIME...IF THESE STORMS...CURRENTLY EXHIBITING SOME SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE...GROW INTO A LARGER SCALE BOW. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF MCD THIS DISCUSSION AREA MAY STILL POSE A TORNADO THREAT...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH LAYER EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A0A 73-75 F. ..JEWELL.. 10/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45759278 46029257 46049101 45758950 45278859 44778856 44438891 44759018 45149146  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 3 23:21:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 03 Oct 2006 19:21:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032320 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-040045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...W-CENTRAL/SWRN WI. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 808... VALID 032320Z - 040045Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INVOF MURRAY COUNTY MN...WARM FRONT ESEWD TO BETWEEN LSE-DBQ THEN ACROSS WI/IL BORDER REGION. SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM SFC LOW NEWD OVER MSP METRO...TO NEAR EAU...THEN SEWD TOWARD MKE. NRN FRONTAL ZONE IS QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS WI AND ERN MN...BUT IS MOVING SWD OVER SWRN MN ALONG AND JUST NE OF SFC LOW POSITION. WW MAY BE CLEARED N OF SWD-MOVING SEGMENT OF NRN FRONT -- ACROSS SWRN AND PORTIONS S-CENTAL MN WHERE CAA WILL STABILIZE AIR MASS TOO MUCH FOR SFC-BASED STORMS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIFT NWD 15-20 KT SUCH THAT THESE FRONTS MERGE LATER THIS EVENING. MOST FAVORABLY SHEARED AND BUOYANT AIR MASS REMAINS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN MN AND PERHAPS SWRN WI. SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THAT REGIME DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH BASE OF EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS REMAINING AT SFC FOR TEMPS ROUGHLY 73-74 F AND HIGHER. SFC CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED NEAR LOW AND ADJACENT PORTIONS WARM FRONT...AS LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD. MAIN CONCERN ATTM IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION CAN INITIATE IN THIS AIR MASS...GIVEN APPARENT INCREASE IN SBCINH NOW UNDERWAY. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THICK MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO REGION FROM W. WHILE THIS REPRESENTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ALOFT...IT ALSO HAS INCREASED SBCINH THROUGH SHADING EFFECTS AND RESULTANT EARLY LOSS OF SFC INSOLATION. AIR MASS ALONG AND JUST S OF NRN FRONT -- BETWEEN MSP-EAU -- MAY BE FAVORABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...THOUGH THIS WILL DECREASE WITH TIME AS SFC COOLS. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER E FROM EAU AREA ACROSS CENTRAL WI...AS NOTED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064. ..EDWARDS.. 10/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43499333 43539412 43799470 44159479 44729378 45119209 45099105 44709039 43699016 43509057  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 01:42:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 03 Oct 2006 21:42:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040142 MIZ000-040345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0842 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI...CENTRAL/NRN LM. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 040142Z - 040345Z LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES ABOVE SFC. THIS WILL PROMOTE BOTH NEW TSTMS DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF ACTIVITY MOVING EWD 30-40 KT FROM WI/LM. RAOB ANALYSIS...INCLUDING TAMDAR SOUNDING DATA...INDICATES 850 MB WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD 30-35 KT FROM SRN WI AND NERN IL ACROSS SWRN LM AND TOWARD THIS REGION. AS THIS FRONT APCHS...LLJ SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTO 35-45 KT RANGE. MOIST ADVECTION AND WAA-RELATED ASCENT IN 850-700 MB LAYER ARE FCST TO BOOST RH TO NEAR SATURATION ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR-SFC LAYER. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN CINH AND ALLOW PARCELS TO BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC. MODIFIED/UPSTREAM GRB RAOB...AND TIME SERIES OF RUC SOUNDINGS FOR WRN LOWER MI...SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED MUCAPES WILL INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z TO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEARS INCREASING TO 40-50 KT RANGE. INCREASES IN BOTH BUOYANCY AND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR FROM W-E ACROSS THIS AREA...AS WILL POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42978682 45408661 45398414 42898411  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 02:12:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 03 Oct 2006 22:12:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040210 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-040415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...W-CENTRAL/SWRN WI. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 808... VALID 040210Z - 040415Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PREVIOUS TWO FRONTAL ZONES CONSOLIDATING ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN MN AND SWRN WI...E OF LOW LOCATED ABOUT 50 SW MKT. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD GENERALLY ALONG MN/IA LINE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY OF UP TO 1.75 INCH HAIL IN DUNN COUNTY WI IS MOVING SEWD 30-35 KT FROM TREMPEALEAU/JACKSON COUNTIES...GENERALLY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN 850-925 MB LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LARGER HAIL AS IT MOVES SEWD TOWARD AREA NEAR OR JUST NE OF VOK...AND INTO WW 809. MEANWHILE...FARTHER W...SFC CAA CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL MN...N OF NRN FRONT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND INTERPOLATED MSP/ABR RAOB DATA SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED/TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG AND NW OF A MSP-RWF LINE...HOWEVER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL PRESENT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ELEVATED WAA...SUPPORTING MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG...ALONG WITH 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SVR OVER THIS AREA. SFC DIABATIC COOLING IN FRONTAL ZONE IS INCREASING SBCINH. ACCORDINGLY...BUOYANCY EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME...BUT STILL FAVORING SVR AMIDST STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43499333 43539412 43799470 44159479 45089395 45199215 45099105 44759080 43889062 43509057 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 04:17:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 04 Oct 2006 00:17:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040417 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040416 MIZ000-WIZ000-040615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WI...CENTRAL/NRN LM...LOWER PENINSULA OF MI...WRN LH. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 809...810... VALID 040416Z - 040615Z ELEVATED MCS IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD FROM WI AND N-CENTRAL LM...ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI. 40-50 KT LLJ IS EVIDENT ACROSS SRN WI AND SWRN LOWER MI BASED ON VWP/PROFILER DATA...TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS....ALONG WITH 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. MUCAPES INCREASE WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS LOWER MI FROM 500-2500 J/KG...DIMINISH OVER WRN LM...THEN INCREASE OVER WI AGAIN TO NEAR 4000 J/KG S LSE. OTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN BAND EXTENDING FROM ERN PORTION OF MCS NEAR HTL SSEWD TO NEAR DTX...ALONG ERN RIM OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTENING. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LOWER INVOF THIS ACTIVITY THAN FARTHER W...TSTMS MAY PRODUCE MRGL SVR HAIL AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD WRN/SRN LH AND ACROSS MI THUMB. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/ERN WI HAS BEEN STABILIZED TEMPORARILY ABOVE SFC BY COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER EAU AREA SUPERCELL AND CONVECTION NOW OVER ERN WI. HOWEVER...WAA ATOP NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER MAY DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SVR HAIL POTENTIAL FROM ADDITIONAL TSTMS MOVING EWD FROM SERN MN AND WW 808. ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 44059148 44999269 45668354 42548277  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 07:08:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 04 Oct 2006 03:08:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040707 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040707 MIZ000-WIZ000-040800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 810... VALID 040707Z - 040800Z THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING STORMS MAY INCREASE OVER CNTRL LOWER MI DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WITH COLD POOL AND COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE EXTENDS FROM NERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH CNTRL LOWER MI AND IS MOVING SEWD AT 35 KT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN THE MCS NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS THE STABLE...DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH COULD LIMIT THE ABILITY FOR SEVERE GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE SWRN PORTION OF THE LINE OVER CNTRL LOWER MI. THESE STORMS MAY SLOW THEIR SWD MOVEMENT AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS STORMS TRAIN FROM W TO E. ..DIAL.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 44059148 44999269 45668354 42548277  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 10:16:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 04 Oct 2006 06:16:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041015 MIZ000-041115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 041015Z - 041115Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A HAIL THREAT OVER CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OR ORGANIZATION. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL LOWER MI INTO EXTREME SRN WI. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EXIST S OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MUCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 850MB-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO. WIND FIELDS REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND STORMS CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY ORGANIZED. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REMAINING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE EXHAUSTED BY ONGOING STORMS. STORMS OVER LOWER MI MAY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR MAINLY HAIL...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER W ACROSS SRN WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..DIAL.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 43558429 42978331 42258358 41988497 41858654 42868599 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 10:21:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 04 Oct 2006 06:21:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041020 COR MIZ000-041115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 041020Z - 041115Z CORRECTED FOR AREA AFFECTED BY MD CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A HAIL THREAT OVER CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OR ORGANIZATION. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL LOWER MI INTO EXTREME SRN WI. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EXIST S OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MUCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 850MB-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO. WIND FIELDS REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND STORMS CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY ORGANIZED. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REMAINING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE EXHAUSTED BY ONGOING STORMS. STORMS OVER LOWER MI MAY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR MAINLY HAIL...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER W ACROSS SRN WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..DIAL.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 43558429 42978331 42258358 41988497 41858654 42868599  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 11:03:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 04 Oct 2006 07:03:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041103 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-041230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY AND NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 041103Z - 041230Z SQUALL LINE APPROACHING WRN NY MAY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH EARLY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE ONTARIO SWWD INTO EXTREME SRN ONTARIO CONTINUES MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT AND IS APPROACHING EXTREME WRN NY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE...INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM SRN LOWER MI NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO. GIVEN THE STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN W OF THE LEADING LINE...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT EWD DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FAST ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT THIS MORNING. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST MAINLY AS THE LINE MOVES INTO WRN NY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42337969 43017883 43507812 43157716 42107817 41458013 41828093  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 5 19:12:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 05 Oct 2006 15:12:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051911 NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-052015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT THU OCT 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM ERN WV INTO NWRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 051911Z - 052015Z STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM WRN VA...SWWD INTO ERN TN HAS CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTED TO RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO OROGRAPHICAL AFFECTS...LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE APPEARS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER...ARCING SWWD INTO ERN TN. WITH WEAK-MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...IT APPEARS HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN MAINTAINING PSEUDO-ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS THAT SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SEWD BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PROSPECT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL AND SEVERE WATCH IS UNLIKELY. ..DARROW.. 10/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 37468281 37028019 35977976 35608095 36178205 35888348 36218457 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 5 20:08:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 05 Oct 2006 16:08:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052008 IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-052215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT THU OCT 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND S-CNTRL ID...EXTREME NERN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 052008Z - 052215Z THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH A THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND HAIL. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD EXPANDING NWD ACROSS NERN NV INTO SWRN ID...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN...AND ALSO OVER THE CNTRL ID MTNS. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AGAIN IN PLACE ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES FAVORING SUPERCELLS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE INCREASING E OF SFC TROUGH AXIS...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NOT AS IDEAL AS YESTERDAY GIVEN SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING TAKING PLACE. THIS IS REFLECTED BY EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER UT INTO SERN ID/FAR ERN NV. SURFACE HEATING IS ALSO BEING HAMPERED UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. THUS...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OVER FAR SWRN ID/NERN NV...CROSSING INTO THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE CNTRL MTNS. GIVEN STRONGLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A STRONG STORM...A TORNADO COULD OCCUR BUT WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF GIVEN ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND UNDERCUTTING STABLE OUTFLOW. ..JEWELL.. 10/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... 41491542 42441604 43341603 44491537 44761474 44701338 43951276 42731290 42111362 41551413  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 5 22:15:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 05 Oct 2006 18:15:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052201 UTZ000-AZZ000-052330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT THU OCT 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL AZ INTO SRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 052201Z - 052330Z POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED...SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SGU TO E OF IGM TO N OF PHX...DISPLACED TO THE E OF PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW OVER E-CNTRL CA. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND LOCAL VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT A BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY FROM N OF PRC TO NEAR PGA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE TENDED TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THIS ZONE OF FORCING WITH MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT. THE PRESENCE OF DEEP SLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..MEAD.. 10/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF... 34471277 35791311 36971306 37581235 37711128 37361030 36281025 34571103 34241186  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 7 11:15:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 07 Oct 2006 07:15:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 071118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071118 VAZ000-NCZ000-071245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 AM CDT SAT OCT 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 071118Z - 071245Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS INDICATED ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SERN VA. WW NOT EXPECTED AS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT. SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ATTM OVER EXTREME SERN VA...WITH A VERY SMALL ZONE OF MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INLAND ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SERN VA WITHIN ELY FLOW JUST N OF LOW. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN WEAK/NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC...AOB 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE -- ELEVATED ABOVE A SLIGHTLY-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER -- IS INDICATED. WITHIN AREA OF ELY/NELY SURFACE FLOW N OF LOW...STRONGLY-VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT IS YIELDING SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THOUGH A SUPERCELL STORM MOVED ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...THIS STORM HAS WEAKENED SINCE MOVING ONSHORE IN THE CITY OF HAMPTON. LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS LITTLE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO SPIN-UP OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT SUPERCELL STORM WHICH MAY EVOLVE/MOVE WNWWD ACROSS SERN VA. THOUGH THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS...SURFACE LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS UPPER LOW RETROGRADES SWWD -- THUS RESULTING IN A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY. ..GOSS.. 10/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ... 36517588 36787669 37307700 37627641 37577560 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 8 08:19:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 08 Oct 2006 04:19:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 080822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080821 NCZ000-SCZ000-080945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NC/NERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 080821Z - 080945Z SMALL AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC/NERN SC ATTM. LIMITED POTENTIAL AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL THREAT SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER SC SHOULD CONTINUED DRIFTING SLOWLY SWWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC. MOST FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM...WITH LIMITED IF ANY INLAND PENETRATION OF THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR ANTICIPATED. A FEW ROTATING STORMS ARE EVIDENT JUST S OF ILM OVER THE GULF STREAM...AS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST COUPLE OF KM ARE YIELDING SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY-ELEVATED AS THEY CONTINUE MOVING NWD TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY INLAND...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS BRUNSWICK COUNTY NC AND ADJACENT HORRY COUNTY SC. ..GOSS.. 10/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM... 33687908 34017900 34257789 33897783 33537870  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 03:41:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 09 Oct 2006 23:41:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100344 TXZ000-100545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 PM CDT MON OCT 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 100344Z - 100545Z SOME AREAS FROM THE TRANS-PECOS EWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND NWD TO PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHORTLY. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT ENEWD FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. STRONG TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FROM SRN NM TO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ATTM. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND FORCING WERE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MASS TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF A WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM 15 S SEP TO 30 S FST. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SHEAR ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND PERSISTENCE. GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HAIL FROM CELLS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...CONVECTION OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT AND WITH ACCESS TO MOIST INFLOW CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE...FROM WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER PECOS COUNTY SEWD...COULD BE NEAR SURFACE-BASED AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO. ..CARBIN.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30399835 30000102 30600134 32140118 32460095 32580044 32699956 32429867 31699796  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 06:40:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2006 02:40:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100643 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100643 TXZ000-100815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TX...FROM THE TX BIG BEND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 100643Z - 100815Z TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF SW TX...LIKELY REQUIRING TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE. THIS WATCH WOULD INCLUDE AREAS CURRENTLY WITHIN THE SRN HALF OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 819. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS INCREASING WITH TIME WITHIN MOIST SELY FLOW S OF COLD FRONT -- WHICH HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY S OF SAN ANGELO...ACROSS MCCULLOCH/MENARD/ SCHLEICHER COUNTIES OF SW TX. WITH LITTLE SWD PUSH OF THE FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NW AS UVA /UVALDE TX/. THOUGH STORM MORPHOLOGY REMAINS MORE CLUSTERED/LINEAR N OF FRONT...A FEW ISOLATED/SUPERCELL STORMS ARE INDICATED S OF FRONT. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT S OF FRONT WITHIN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL VEERING OBSERVED /10 KT SELY SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT FROM THE SW AT 3 KM PER LATEST DEL RIO WSR-88D VWP/...COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...FURTHER COOLING ALOFT...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30760317 31030165 31049848 30019845 28920011 29030061 29730143 29800238 29730268 29020318 29170387 29440410  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 10:01:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2006 06:01:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101000 TXZ000-101130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN AND INTO CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 820... VALID 101000Z - 101130Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 820...WITH POTENTIAL INCREASING E OF WW. NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN -- WITH DEWPOINTS NOW NEAR 70 IN MOST LOCALES -- S OF FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR CORSICANA TX TO NEAR JUNCTION TX. SMALL-SCALE LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS MCCULLOCH/SAN SABA/MASON COUNTIES REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. MEANWHILE...A SECOND LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS CROCKETT AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES ALSO REMAINS POTENTIALLY SEVERE...WITH EMBEDDED ROTATION SIGNATURES NOTED WITHIN THE LINE OVER THE PAST HOUR. FINALLY...A MORE ISOLATED/SUPERCELL STORM IS MOVING ACROSS GILLESPIE COUNTY...WITH OTHER/WEAKER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INCREASING E OF THE WW. OVERALL...CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING AND STRONG ENEWD SURGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD OUT OF WW 820. THEREFORE...AREAS E OF THIS WW ARE BEING MONITORED FOR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29830170 30260188 31090096 31519944 31929644 31119512 29079672 29019925  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 13:49:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2006 09:49:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101352 TXZ000-101515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0852 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 820... VALID 101352Z - 101515Z REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 820 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. WEAKENING UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD FROM NERN NM INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING. SRN EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WERE SKIRTING ACROSS CNTRL TX...BUT THE STRONGEST ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE N OF CNTRL TX. WRN EXTENT OF THE LINEAR MCS SITUATED W OF I-35 HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SINCE 12Z WITH THE STRONGEST STORM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SAN MARCOS/NEW BRAUNFELS REGION BY 15Z. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW REMAINS STRONGEST ACROSS SCNTRL AND DEEP S TX. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SURGE SEWD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL TX. THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED AND/OR SHIFTED INTO THE NEW TORNADO WATCH 821...HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS SCNTRL TX. ISOLD DAMAGING GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS SCNTRL TX...AND THAT REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT AND BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. ..RACY.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29610185 30500170 31659889 31919703 31249643 30339708 29429819 28999939  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 14:29:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2006 10:29:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101431 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101431 TXZ000-101630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0931 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 821... VALID 101431Z - 101630Z 14Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DOUBLE STRUCTURE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN TX. INITIAL SURGE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WAS SITUATED FROM VCNTY HOUSTON NWWD INTO THE KCLL AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QUALITY MARITIME MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING NWD INTO THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND THE KSAT REGION. LINEAR MCS THAT EVOLVED ACROSS CNTRL TX WEAKENED WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...BUT REMAINS STRONG FROM THE KAUS/KBAZ REGION NEWD TOWARD KCLL. SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BAND OF TSTMS WAS RESULTING IN MORE DISCRETE TSTMS VCNTY LOCKHART AND LA GRANGE. STRONGER TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONTS AND TRACK ESEWD INTO SERN TX THROUGH THE MORNING. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS VEERED OVER SCNTRL TX...THE LDB PROFILER SUGGESTS THAT 0-1KM SRH FOR AN EWD MOVING STORM WAS AROUND 150-175 M2/S2. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WITH THE STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY CROSS THE WARM FRONTS. ..RACY.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29779882 30529818 32139589 31569454 30559426 29489522 29079673  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 16:25:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2006 12:25:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101628 TXZ000-101800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX AND UPPER TX COASTAL AREA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 821... VALID 101628Z - 101800Z LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS SERN TX TOWARD THE UPPER COAST. DOWNSTREAM...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT AS THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE HOUSTON AREA. MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FEED THE APPROACHING STORMS AND LIKELY SUPPORT A TSTM THREAT INTO THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BEFORE 18Z. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR HOUSTON AS SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS. THIS IS GENERALLY IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT AND STRONGER STORMS SHOULD TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TRENDS IN THE HGX VWP SUGGESTS THAT 0-1KM SHEAR WAS INCREASING TO ABOVE 150 M2/S2 FOR A DISCRETE EWD MOVING STORM. THUS...WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS...AN ISOLD TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCS. MOST OF THE TSTMS WILL BE CLEARING THE TORNADO WATCH BY 17-18Z. ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WILL BE ISOLD AND LIMITED TO A FAIRLY SMALL AREA. AFTER CONSULTING WFO HGX...A DECISION WILL BE MADE ON WHETHER TO ISSUE A NEW WATCH DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER TX COASTAL AREA. ..RACY.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29239736 30009686 31729548 31569454 30009437 29149534 29079673  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 17:31:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2006 13:31:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101734 LAZ000-TXZ000-101830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 822... VALID 101734Z - 101830Z LINE SEGMENT MOVING INTO CNTRL HARRIS COUNTY HAS ACCELERATED TO 35-40 KTS WITH A STRONG REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BOW NEAR KIAH AT 18Z AND ALONG THE NRN TIP OF GALVESTON BAY AT 1830Z. THIS LINE HAS BEEN LONG-LIVED WITH ITS SUPERCELL ORIGIN BETWEEN AUSTIN AND BRENHAM. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY SWD TO JUST WEST OF SUGAR LAND...WHARTON AND EL CAMPO. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BOW OR BRIEFLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITHIN THE LINE AS THEY MOVE TO THE COAST BY 19-20Z. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT THERE WILL BE RISKS FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS MORE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD AND MERGE WITH THE LINE SEGMENTS. ..RACY.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP... 31299452 29669350 28769499 28069692 28509742 28839715 29519592 30829545  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 14 07:03:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2006 03:03:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140705 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-140830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA / SRN NV / NWRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 140705Z - 140830Z ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 0645Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO ORGANIZED TSTMS DISPLAYING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS 40-50 MILES S OF LAS MOVING 180/25-30 KT. LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS IN WHICH THESE TWO MORE INTENSE CELLS ARE EMBEDDED APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE SE OF EED NNWWD TO ALONG THE CA/NV BORDER...AND FORCED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER CO VALLEY. AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER VEERING TO SSELY IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THROUGH 0830Z...THE GREATEST THREAT OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS CLARK COUNTY NV INTO WRN MOHAVE COUNTY AZ WITHIN A SMALL AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE SMALL SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF THIS THREAT. ..MEAD.. 10/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF... 35141533 35691601 36501604 37111551 37121441 36551364 35491377 34961393 34831437 34821469  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 14 15:49:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2006 11:49:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141551 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141551 AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-141745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ARIZONA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141551Z - 141745Z A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF CURRENT THREAT. BUT... TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL. WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE STILL ROTATING AROUND ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SUPPORTED BY DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE LOWER DESERTS...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING...NOW PIVOTING IN ARC ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA /INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AND FLAGSTAFF AREAS/. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ONGOING BENEATH FAVORABLE DIVERGENT QUADRANT NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY ARIZONA INTO CLARK COUNTY NEVADA /INCLUDING THE LAS VEGAS AREA/...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE INSOLATION IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION. BENEATH 40-50 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WEAK MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY. CAPE IN GENERAL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS...POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. GUSTY WINDS/HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT...AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN HIGHEST IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NORTH OF THE LOWER DESERTS. ..KERR.. 10/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF... 35911538 36661488 37111343 36871154 36311078 35541035 34311041 32801142 33111206 34071207 34621281 34981460  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 14 19:40:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2006 15:40:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141941 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-142115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NW AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 141941Z - 142115Z CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS NW AZ THIS AFTERNOON...IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER EXTREME SE CA. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...AND BENEATH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -18 C...IS SUPPORTING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NW AZ. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE GRADUALLY IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE NEXT FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY E/NE OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. ..THOMPSON.. 10/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF... 36601321 36371282 35571272 35071288 34501367 34421449 35041478 35501481 36441431 36651384  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 14 20:52:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2006 16:52:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142054 TXZ000-NMZ000-142230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2112 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...W TX...EXTREME SE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 142054Z - 142230Z WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS W TX/SE NM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON ON THE NOSE OF AN 80-100 KT UPPER JET /PER WHITE SANDS PROFILER/ AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND REDUCED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. E OF THIS ACTIVITY...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE SPREADING NWWD UP THE PECOS VALLEY...AND THIS MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR OVER THIS AREA /ROUGHLY 6 C/KM/...AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL DESPITE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORING SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WW. ..THOMPSON.. 10/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ... 32000301 31550282 31100291 30750339 30610374 30900481 31340531 31910553 32360517 32490438 32360346  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 14 23:22:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2006 19:22:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142324 TXZ000-NMZ000-150030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN TX AND EXTREME SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 142324Z - 150030Z MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WRN TX AND EXTREME SERN NM DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE ADVECTED LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO WRN TX...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE RESULTING IN MUCAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBERS ACROSS SWRN TX THROUGH THE EVENING AS A JET MAX AND INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREADS INTO THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO ROTATE AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE 3/4 TO 1 INCH SIZE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..IMY.. 10/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ... 30360255 30030435 31510531 32690296 32340202 31330154 30930141  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 15 10:03:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 06:03:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 151005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151005 NMZ000-TXZ000-151130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NM INTO FAR WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 151005Z - 151130Z INTENSIFYING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS MORNING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 0950Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED INTENSIFYING TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM...TO THE N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM S OF ELP NWWD INTO W-CNTRL NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A BAND OF IMPLIED DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT /PRECEDING UPPER LOW OVER AZ/ IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD THROUGH NM AND ACTING ON A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND CONTRIBUTING TO THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION WITHIN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG. CORRESPONDING KINEMATIC PROFILES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ABOVE THIS FRONTAL INVERSION. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL...HOWEVER THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..MEAD.. 10/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 32310806 33030796 33540742 33340607 32720545 32020513 31500526 31280566 31550673 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 15 14:44:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 10:44:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 151446 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151445 TXZ000-NMZ000-151545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE NM INTO SW/W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 151445Z - 151545Z EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW IS STILL SLOW...BUT BECOMING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU THIS MORNING...AND FORCING APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOST INTENSE CELL TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN LEA COUNTY NM INTO AREAS WEST OF LUBBOCK SEEMS TO BE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED IN WAKE OF AN IMPULSE ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ON SOUTHERN/EASTERN FRINGE OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND UNCERTAINTIES DO EXIST CONCERNING MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW FOR SURFACE HEATING BY MID DAY. IF THIS OCCURS... MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD APPROACH/EXCEED 1000 J/KG...PROVIDING INCREASING SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. BENEATH 40-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...20+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS A TORNADO. ..KERR.. 10/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32680647 33490563 34270486 34890415 35260287 34620195 33790147 33090173 32360217 31760292 31340439 31180592 31650638 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 15 20:00:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 16:00:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152002 TXZ000-NMZ000-152130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN NM INTO SWRN/WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825... VALID 152002Z - 152130Z CONTINUE WW. SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS/THE BIG BEND REGION. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BECOME MINIMAL WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 500 J/KG...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SUPPORTED BY OROGRAPHY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST STRONG MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. ..KERR.. 10/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ... 31790645 32390564 32040394 32450268 31320203 30320200 29510240 28900325 29300490 30720593  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 15 23:55:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 19:55:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152357 TXZ000-160100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826... VALID 152357Z - 160100Z MULTI SEGMENTED WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOST FOCUSED AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF MAF...COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST SUPERCELL THAT HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED A TORNADO. LATEST SFC MAP SUGGESTS AT LEAST TWO IDENTIFIABLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...ORIENTED E-W...EXTEND ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO THIS REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...HOWEVER WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY...EXCEPT ALONG A NARROW WEDGE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS UPDRAFT INTENSITY WILL STRUGGLE WITH MANY STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20 WHERE STORM ROTATION IS LACKING. IN THE SHORT TERM TORNADIC SUPERCELL NW OF FST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 10/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... 30520249 31070336 32040255 32320163 31840088 30790117 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 03:55:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 23:55:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160357 LAZ000-TXZ000-160500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX COASTAL PLAINS...SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 160357Z - 160500Z A SUBTLE...YET POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT...DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX AT ROUGHLY 35 KT. THIS FEATURE APPEARS LOOSELY CONNECTED TO TROPICAL SYSTEM DEEP OVER CNTRL MEXICO WHICH IS NOW EJECTING AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE SATURATED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS IN PLACE WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. LLJ IS INCREASING ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO THE SABINE RIVER AND A WEAK SFC LOW...OR AT LEAST A WAVE...WILL FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR SAT OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE ...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. TORNADO THREAT WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS UPDRAFTS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 27629720 28519775 29709734 30839483 30569319 29539290 28829507 27959656 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 06:24:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 02:24:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160626 LAZ000-MSZ000-160800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 160626Z - 160800Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 06Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES IN EXISTENCE ACROSS ERN TX INTO LA. IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE METROPLEX SEWD TO NEAR MSY WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONT /DELINEATING TRUE MARITIME AIR MASS/ STRETCHED FROM NEAR OR JUST N OF HOU ESEWD TO JUST OFF THE LA COAST. NEW ORLEANS RADAR DATA INDICATE SMALL SUPERCELLS OVER LAFOURCHE AND TERREBONNE PARISHES AS OF 0615Z WITH A MOVEMENT OF 175/25 KT. INSPECTION OF RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT BY 08-09Z THE THREAT OF MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE AS MARITIME BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WILL OFFSET MARGINAL INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 30349210 30649184 30809148 30599050 30338971 29748913 28958929 28859017 29329168  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 08:24:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 04:24:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160825 LAZ000-TXZ000-161000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE / UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 827... VALID 160825Z - 161000Z THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA. 08Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MARITIME WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM APPROXIMATELY 40 N VCT TO JUST N OF HOU TO NEAR BPT WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 70S TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY. CURRENT HOU VWP INDICATES MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2...HOWEVER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INVOF THIS BOUNDARY WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2. TRAINING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE AS OF 0815Z FROM CHAMBERS/LIBERTY COUNTIES SWWD TO OFF GALVESTON ISLAND...A TREND WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. WHILE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELLS ACROSS WW AREA...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD AND INTERACTING WITH THE MARINE WARM FRONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS FROM HARRIS EWD THROUGH LIBERTY AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 10Z. EXPECT THIS ENHANCED THREAT TO SLOWLY SHIFT NWD WITH TIME IN CONCERT WITH THE NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. ..MEAD.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28859736 30319709 30849567 30779298 30749152 29749066 28779103 29019362 27869629  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 08:48:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 04:48:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160850 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160850 TXZ000-161015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 160850Z - 161015Z SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 12Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. 08Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR DRT WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING GENERALLY EWD TO NEAR OR JUST S OF SAT. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS WARM AND QUITE MOIST EARLY THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP. TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO...W-SW OF DRT...LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SHIFTING SEWD THROUGH SRN NM. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS...AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS STORMS CROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT. CURRENT VWP FROM DRT INDICATES VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 150 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KT. WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INTERACTING WITH WARM FRONT. ..MEAD.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... 29660084 29910058 29969991 29929929 29479883 28989882 28349916 28119942 28049998 28880068  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 10:30:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 06:30:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161032 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-161200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST EWD THROUGH SRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 827...828... VALID 161032Z - 161200Z THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW/S 827 AND 828. THIS THREAT IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT N OF WW 827 AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY. 10Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN DRT AND JCT WITH ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD INTO NERN TX. ASSOCIATED MARINE WARM FRONT EXTENDS GENERALLY EWD FROM THIS LOW TO N OF HOU TO BPT TO NEAR LCH INTO FAR SERN LA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH SERN TX AND SWRN LA. AS OF 1015Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS FROM NEAR HOU EWD TO NEAR AND N OF BPT...AS WELL AS E AND NE OF LCH AND NEAR AND S OF MSY. LOCAL VWPS INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY LLJ AXIS EXISTS BETWEEN HOU AND LCH WHICH IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 350-450 M2/S2. MOREOVER...RECENT BPT OBSERVATION INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS /4.2 MB PER 3 HR/ AND GUSTY SELY WINDS...INDICATIVE OF STRONG FORCING AND TURBULENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING OCCURRING ALONG LLJ AXIS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER...THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENENCE OF SUPERCELLS /SOME TORNADIC/ ALONG AND S OF MARINE WARM FRONT AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NWD. ..MEAD.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29039712 30259686 30869602 30749387 30699140 30368954 30148883 28888873 28358945 28879239 28729443 27879628  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 12:50:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 08:50:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161251 LAZ000-TXZ000-161415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL TX INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 161251Z - 161415Z SUPERCELL AND INHERENT TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF WW 829 BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY AT THAT TIME. 12Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WARM FRONT /DELINEATING TRUE MARITIME AIR MASS/ CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD...EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF UTS ESEWD TO N OF BPT...LCH AND LFT. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY WARM FRONT STRETCHES SEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO FAR SERN MS. BASED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS SITUATED S OF MARINE WARM FRONT OWING TO VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. AS SUCH...SRM RADAR DATA SHOW INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE LOCATED VERY NEAR TO THIS BOUNDARY FROM HARDIN COUNTY WWD INTO SAN JACINTO AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IN TX AND BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SWRN LA. FARTHER TO THE N...STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BASED ON 12Z SHV/JAN SOUNDINGS...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE BASED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD LATER THIS MORNING. ..MEAD.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... 31529507 31939509 32349432 32279301 32089225 31759204 31529230 31519273 31389343 31239379 31119464  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 17:37:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 13:37:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161739 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-161915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/WRN HALF OF LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 830... VALID 161739Z - 161915Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW. SURFACE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOW NWD ADVECTION OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS INTO NRN LA...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF WW. THOUGH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/WEAK LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY...SHEAR REMAINS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLOGENESIS. FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIME...AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FASTER FLOW FIELD ALOFT APPROACH FROM THE W AND LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK -- AS FURTHER ILLUSTRATED BY OVERALL LACK OF CG LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS -- AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. ALONG WITH THREAT SPREADING NWD WITH TIME ACROSS LA...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO MS AND ERN LA -- E OF WW -- WITH TIME...POSSIBLY REQUIRING NEW WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..GOSS.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 28689632 31339463 32549266 32449108 30949101 29339149 28389441  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 18:54:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 14:54:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161856 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-162000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 161856Z - 162000Z TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING E OF TORNADO WATCH 830 INTO ERN LA/SRN MS. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN LA AND ADJACENT SRN MS...WITH INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS MOVING N. ALONG WITH THE LACK OF OBSERVED LIGHTNING...THE NWD CELL MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW...BENEATH APPROXIMATELY 600 MB WHERE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SLY TO SWLY. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LIKELY TO COOL THE MID TROPOSPHERE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEEPEN WITH TIME AND EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME LIGHTNING...GIVEN MID 70S BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS WHICH CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD INTO SRN MS. THOUGH A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ONGOING/ROTATING SHOWERS...GREATER TORNADO THREAT WOULD EVOLVE AS CONVECTION DEEPENS WITH TIME. THEREFORE...NEW TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED ATTM...REFLECTING THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE AREA OF INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31288833 30038855 29649013 29839180 31129170 32109065 32548931 32328859  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 20:35:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 16:35:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162037 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-162200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/MUCH OF LA/PARTS OF SRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 830...831... VALID 162037Z - 162200Z TORNADO/LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW IS NOW INDICATED OVER SRN AR...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO S TX AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR MOBILE BAY. LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS CHARACTERIZE THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. WITHIN THIS TROPICAL/MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ONGOING...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN A NE-SW BAND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...RESULTING IN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION EVEN WITHIN SMALL RAIN SHOWERS. THOUGH THREAT FOR HAIL REMAINS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..GOSS.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 28979532 29179595 30509528 32349227 32148987 31568922 30018998 29449238  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 22:05:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 18:05:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162207 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-162230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS/PARTS OF SERN LA/SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 162207Z - 162230Z WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR SERN MS...PARTS OF SERN LA...SWRN AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER SRN AR...WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MS INTO FAR SWRN AL. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES/DEVELOPS NEWD...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD ACROSS THESE REGIONS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS...FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...STRONG SRH VALUES /0-1 KM VALUES EXCEEDING 450 M2/S2/ SUPPORT STORM ROTATION WITH NWD MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ..PETERS.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32608841 32658758 31978613 30368634 29578730 28958899 29748986 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 23:18:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 19:18:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162319 LAZ000-TXZ000-162345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/MUCH OF LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 830... VALID 162319Z - 162345Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN LA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SE TX /JEFFERSON COUNTY/ NEWD TO MADISON AND EAST CARROLL PARISHES IN NERN LA. THIS LINE WAS MOVING EWD...WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WERE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ERN PARTS OF CENTRAL LA AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA AFTER 00Z...WHEN THE CURRENT WATCH /WW 830 EXPIRES/. THUS...GIVEN PARAMETERS /0-1 KM SRH 300-400 M2/S2/ WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN LA. ..PETERS.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29259421 30319335 30869285 31569224 31169164 30319176 30109125 30159061 28909038 28549093  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 17 00:20:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 20:20:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170022 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-170115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA/PART OF SERN LA/CENTRAL AND SRN MS/SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 832... VALID 170022Z - 170115Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN WW 832. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF WW 832 INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN MS. VERY MOIST /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S/ AIR MASS EXTENDING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SRN AR TO WEST CENTRAL MS TO SWRN AL COMBINED WITH STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THIS THREAT IS EVIDENT WITH 1) DISCRETE CELLS IN WARM SECTOR WHICH EXTENDED FROM ERN/SRN LA EWD TO SWRN AL AND NWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MS...AND 2) EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS IN LINE OF STORMS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SW LA TO WEST CENTRAL MS. FARTHER N IN MS /TO THE N OF WW 832/...EXTENSIVE ONGOING RAINFALL HAS STABILIZED THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE NORTH END OF THE LINE OF STORMS...WHICH HAS MOVED FROM NERN LA INTO WEST CENTRAL MS...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST STORM ROTATION WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY THE N END OF BOWING SEGMENTS... WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. GIVEN THIS ISOLATED THREAT...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. ..PETERS.. 10/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 32528678 30738633 30008640 29818832 30178958 30129085 30119134 30829173 31339185 31579227 32219214 32899127 33749107 33759045 33758932 33588831 32778810 32498748 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 17 02:26:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 22:26:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170228 ALZ000-MSZ000-170300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN MS AND NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 170228Z - 170300Z NEW TORNADO WW WILL BE REQUIRED TO THE NORTH OF WW 832. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD INTO NWRN TO EAST CENTRAL MS AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVED INTO NERN AR THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND STRONG KINEMATICS ENHANCING SRH VALUES /0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR TORNADOES/ WIND DAMAGE TO THE NORTH OF WW 832. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED PERSISTENT BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG LINE OF ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM ERN LA INTO CENTRAL MS WITH SEVERAL ROTATION COUPLETS WITH THESE LINES. ..PETERS.. 10/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33308827 33278975 33429019 34398968 34988933 34978728 33708716 33198734 32808809  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 17 04:28:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 17 Oct 2006 00:28:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170430 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170429 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN LA/CENTRAL-SRN MS/SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 832...833... VALID 170429Z - 170530Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PARTS OF TORNADO WATCHES 832 AND 833. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES HAS BECOME PRIMARILY CONFINED TO A LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN CURRENTLY INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS SWWD THROUGH SWRN MS TO SOUTH CENTRAL LA. A TROPICAL-TYPE AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS WATCHES 832 AND 833 WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PER WEAK LAPSE RATES...STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 55-65 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-600+ M2/S2 REMAINS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT...IN ADDITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH BOWING SEGMENTS...TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE LEWP AND WITH BOW HEADS. ..PETERS.. 10/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29249346 31429142 31579114 32559024 33248972 33258834 32818801 32668690 30998642 30078646 29788798 30078937 30009056 29499104 28879129 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 20 16:54:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2006 12:54:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201656 RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-201900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY...RI...CT AND WRN/CNTRL MA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 201656Z - 201900Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN PA SWD THROUGH MD AND ERN VA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN NY INTO CT AND RI. WARM SECTOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES...WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 300 J/KG. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. LIFT ACCOMPANYING STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND CYCLOGENESIS WILL MAINTAIN A FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING NEAR COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW NORMAL TO THE LINE WILL INCREASE IN POST FRONTAL ZONE AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...AND MUCH OF THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY RESULT FROM INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW. SOME POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG THE LINE. ..DIAL.. 10/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 41047180 40557373 40097427 40297522 41137511 42637324 42547179 41607129 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 20 19:50:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2006 15:50:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201951 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-202145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...CT...RI...MA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 201951Z - 202145Z MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW LOW TOPPED LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM WRN MA SWD THROUGH CNTRL LONG ISLAND MOVING ENEWD AT 40 KT. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST HOUR AS THE LINE MOVED INTO THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME ERN NY WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NEWD THIS AFTERNOON PROMOTED BY ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AN EJECTING UPPER JET MAX. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MLCAPE IS AOB 300 J/KG DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. GRADIENT FLOW NORMAL TO THE LINE IN POST FRONTAL ZONE HAS STRENGTHENED AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WHERE HIGHER MOMENTUM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE CAN BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 10/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... 41807088 41107193 40727301 41467318 42437303 42847132 42507077 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 21 23:38:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2006 19:38:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212339 LAZ000-220115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 212339Z - 220115Z A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE CNTRL COAST OF LA AS A SUPERCELL MOVES ONSHORE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUMONT EWD ALONG THE COAST OF LA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S F WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. SFC WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CURRENTLY EXISTS 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF MORGAN CITY LA AND THIS STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS CELL AS IT MOVES ACROSS TERREBONNE COUNTY. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. ..BROYLES.. 10/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29208943 29139061 29279157 29429162 29619165 29999145 30059065 29938982 29828941  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 22 08:30:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2006 04:30:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220831 FLZ000-ALZ000-221000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 220831Z - 221000Z ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WATERSPOUT THREAT EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS /UNTIL ABOUT 12Z/. THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD ENE TO THE AQQ/TLH AREAS INTO FL BIG BEND AFTER 12Z. GIVEN ISOLATED THREAT...WW IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED COASTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE NWD...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDED SEWD FROM A LOW OVER SERN MS THROUGH FAR SWRN AL TO ALONG THE WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...MOIST AIR MASS RESIDING ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S IS MAINTAINING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES /35-40 KT/ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHILE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2 PER EGLIN AFB VAD/ INDICATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS OFFSHORE OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...1. LESS THAN 5 MILES FROM COASTAL OKALOOSA COUNTY AND 2. 20-25 MILES SW OF COASTAL BAY COUNTY. LOW LEVEL ROTATION WAS NOTED WITH THESE STORMS...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS TO MOVE ONSHORE. INSTABILITY DECREASES NWD AWAY FROM THE COAST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INLAND SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 10/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 30198519 29768453 29248489 29358552 29878621 30018707 30098745 30418752 30608744 30618688 30638640 30568570  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 26 03:28:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 25 Oct 2006 23:28:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260331 COZ000-260930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 PM CDT WED OCT 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE FRONT RANGE OF CO...PALMER DIVIDE...NCNTRL CO MOUNTAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 260331Z - 260930Z UT UPPER LOW APPEARS TO STILL BE DIGGING PER SATL IMAGERY. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST SOLUTION AMONG SHORT TERM MODELS WITH A MORE SWD TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE H7 LOW. BY 12Z...THE ATTENDANT LOW SHOULD BE ACROSS SERN CO...WITH AN INCREASING DEEP NNELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. LATEST CYS AND FTG VWP/S ALREADY SHOW THE INCREASING NNELY WIND OF 20-30 KTS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM. H7 FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE DIVIDE AND COOLING ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ERN CO BETWEEN 06-12Z. AS THE COLUMN SATURATES BETWEEN NOW AND 09Z...WET-BULB COOLING AND INCREASING ICE PRODUCTION AT CLOUD TOP WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. MAGNITUDE OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PRIMARILY AFTER 09Z ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING BOULDER AND WRN DENVER METRO AREA AND TOWARD 12Z ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE INCLUDING THE REST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA SWD TOWARD KCOS. ..RACY.. 10/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... 40370515 39980507 39730493 39640457 39620418 39430415 39060431 38950469 39020485 38770488 38790504 38880530 39030542 39190551 39420579 39540589 40370551  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 26 11:19:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2006 07:19:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261122 COZ000-261615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN CO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261122Z - 261615Z HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AT 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD FROM DENVER METRO AREA AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE INTO COS AREA BY 12-14Z...WHILE SIMILAR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FURTHER SWD ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PUB REGION BY 15-18Z. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY 15Z...AS NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 25-40 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...CONTINUES TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW AS SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S EARLY THIS MORNING INTO SRN CO...AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT RESULTS IN DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ON TRACK PER 00Z/06Z NAM AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO MOVE ESE ALONG NM/CO BORDER INTO NERN NM BY 18Z. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER BECOMING MORE NORMAL TO THE ERN SLOPES/FRONT RANGE. THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. 06Z NAM/09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-12 TO -17 C/...ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES INITIALLY FROM DEN-COS AREAS THROUGH 15Z...AND THEN SWD INTO PUB REGION FROM 15-18Z. DENDRITIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR. ..PETERS.. 10/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... 40160555 40170476 39510377 39090376 38740338 38390374 37930373 37520349 37390388 37440484 37740524 38070555 38380569 38660573 39080570 39780592  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 26 17:23:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2006 13:23:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261726 LAZ000-TXZ000-261830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...SWRN LA. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 261726Z - 261830Z ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP IN WSW-ENE ALIGNED BAND FROM MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN ACROSS PORTIONS HOU METRO AREA...TO BETWEEN ESF-LFT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SLGT POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE/WARM FRONT FROM OFFSHORE ATCHAFALAYA BAY NWWD OVER CAMERON PARISH AND LOWER SABINE RIVER REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH AFTERNOON...SPREADING MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS MORE OF SRN LA. SFC WINDS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION ARE SLY TO SSWLY...WITH SOME BACKING POSSIBLE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS PRESSURES FALL IN WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING OK CYCLONE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH...AS WELL AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH INCREASING FROM AROUND 150-300 J/KG WITH EWD EXTENT...FROM MIDDLE TX COAST INTO SWRN LA...ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT. IN SUPPORT OF BOTH SVR POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT...VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS ANALYZED IN INFLOW AIR MASS EMANATING FROM GULF COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AREA THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AS SFC INSOLATION CONTINUES. PW VALUES 2-2.25 INCHES ARE BASED ON MODIFIED CRP/LCH RAOBS...PAST SEVERAL HOURS OF GPS DATA AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. HEAVY RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THIS BAND...INCLUDING PORTIONS THAT MAY BACKBUILD AND BECOME MORE DENSE WSW OF HOU. CONTINUED TRAINING OF ECHOES WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 10/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 29519556 30309449 30589340 30639259 30139250 29689300 29729377 29369471 29219521  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 26 20:59:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2006 16:59:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262103 OKZ000-KSZ000-262230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SRN KS AND EXTREME NRN OK. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 262103Z - 262230Z ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING SUPERCELL THREAT -- IS INCREASING INVOF KS/OK BORDER FROM S DDC EWD TO VICINITY PNC. ACTIVITY MAY BUILD ESEWD FROM RECENT DEVELOPMENT SW DDC...AND/OR INITIATE OVER KS/OK BORDER AREA S-SE OF ICT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN MEADE COUNTY KS AND WOODWARD COUNTY OK...WHICH IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO MORE PRONOUNCED/DISCRETE CYCLONE OVER NWRN/N-CENTRAL OK THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE LINE IS EVIDENT IN SFC DATA AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM NEAR GCK...SEWD THROUGH MEADE COUNTY LOW...THEN ESEWD AS QUASISTATIONARY FRONT TO KS/OK BORDER NW OF BVO. AS LOW STRENGTHENS...ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY INVOF CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ALSO WILL MARK NRN EDGE OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VARIES FROM 35-50 KT ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG JUST N OF BOUNDARY. NARROW AREA OF OPTIMAL BUOYANCY/SHEAR OVERLAP SHOULD PERSIST INVOF BOUNDARY. RUC SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR SFC OBS IN AREA...INDICATE MLCAPES 250-500 J/KG WITHIN PERSISTENT AREA OF CU EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY OVER OSAGE/KAY COUNTIES OK AND COWLEY COUNTY KS. THESE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INFLOW PARCELS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED WITH WNWWD DISTANCE ALONG MAIN CONVERGENCE LINE ACROSS SW KS. ..EDWARDS.. 10/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37740044 37619979 37359880 37459763 37089681 36779667 36499696 36529753 37019912 37480037  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 26 23:19:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2006 19:19:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262322 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...EXTREME SERN OK...EXTREME SWRN AR AND EXTREME NWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 262322Z - 270045Z LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE TX PNHDL UPPER LOW APPEAR TO BE IMPINGING ON THE SUB-TROPICAL CONVEYOR ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX PER INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THIS MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF A LONG TERM TSTM THREAT THAT WILL LAST INTO EARLY FRI ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND TYPE REMAIN IN QUESTION...HOWEVER. PASSAGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL WAVE EARLIER TODAY HAS LARGELY MODIFIED THE TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE WITH A DECIDEDLY VEERED REGIME JUST OFF THE SFC...THEN A GRADUALLY BACKING UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW. FURTHERMORE...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WERE RATHER POOR GIVEN SUB-TROPICAL NATURE TO THE CONVEYOR. 0-3KM LAPSE RATES WERE BETTER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WAS MORE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS ECNTRL THROUGH NERN TX. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT TSTMS WILL INDEED EXPAND AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME FROM PARTS OF ECNTRL TX NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST S OF THE RED RVR VLY AND EAST OF TEMPLE-CORSICANA AS MID-LEVEL STORMS BEGIN TO ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. BUT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALBEIT RATHER WEAK...WAS REGIONALLY BACKED IN A CORRIDOR FROM TYLER TO LUFKIN. AS STORMS MATURE...AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS REGION THROUGH MID-EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD TOWARD SRN AR AND LA LATER THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE EVOLVING PROBLEM AS NE-SW ORIENTED LINES TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGIONS. ..RACY.. 10/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD... 30929683 34119558 34349465 33799348 32619377 30479567  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 27 00:17:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2006 20:17:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270020 OKZ000-KSZ000-270245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 270020Z - 270245Z MAINLY ELEVATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN BUTLER AND COWLEY COUNTIES IN SE KS...AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THESE STORMS FORMED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ARE LOCATED IN A REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEASTERN OK ALONG A DRYLINE LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM PNC TO MLC...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS YET TO FORM.. LATEST RUC MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT SOME STORMS WILL FORM IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG THE DRYLINE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 03Z...AS THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF IT. WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE. A WEATHER WATCH IS THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE MOMENT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..LEVIT.. 10/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37069772 37499762 37769749 37919734 38149702 38169633 38149572 38089516 37519497 37179490 36909490 36629488 36279479 36069480 35699471 35349462 34979465 34589467 34629534 34649584 34869611 35209608 35459615 35989650 36399680 36559707 36749742 36949766  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 27 02:03:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2006 22:03:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270205 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0905 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...EXTREME SERN OK...SWRN AR AND NWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 840... VALID 270205Z - 270400Z BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS YET TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS EVE. TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG A PRE-DRYLINE CONFLUENCE FROM THE RED RVR VLY OF NERN TX/SERN OK SWD TO JUST EAST OF THE DALLAS METRO AREA AT MID-EVENING. PRIND THAT TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND NEWD INTO SWRN/CNTRL AR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH SPREADS EWD. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED COOL/CLOUDY MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS AR. THUS...WHILE THE DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS...DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. MOREOVER...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR BASED ON EVENING SOUNDINGS AND ONLY THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL. FARTHER S...TSTMS THAT FORMED FROM MID-LEVEL CONVECTION EARLIER HAVE EVOLVED INTO SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE OCCASIONAL BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...BOTH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES AND WITH NEWER STORMS NW-W OF KLFK. WHILE LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN TX HAS BEEN THRIVING ALONG NRN EDGE OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED THE MOST TODAY. MODIFYING THE 00Z KSHV SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT AS THE STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE ERN EDGE OF THE WW...THEY WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. WHILE THE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH...THE HEAVY RAINFALL PROSPECTS WILL INCREASE AS TSTMS TRAIN IN A SW-NE FASHION ACROSS NRN LA AND SERN TX. ..RACY.. 10/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30719747 33759561 34679410 34099290 31959343 30669489 30149602 30399747  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 27 04:49:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 27 Oct 2006 00:49:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270452 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 840... VALID 270452Z - 270615Z 04Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 1002 MB LOW OVER NWRN OK WITH A DRYLINE ARCING SWD THROUGH ERN OK...DALLAS AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT IN CNTRL TX. A PRE-DRYLINE CONFLUENCE ZONE EXISTED FROM NERN TX SWWD INTO SCNTRL TX WITH A MARINE WARM FRONT HUGGING THE UPPER TX COAST. MULTIPLE LINES OF TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING POSITIVE-TILT UPPER LOW. PRIMARY LINEAR SEGMENT WITHIN SVR TSTM WATCH 840 WAS MOVING SEWD INTO THE UPPER TX COAST COUNTIES...WHERE DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER WAS WARMEST. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO WCNTRL LA AND THE JASPER TX VCNTY THROUGH 07Z. ONCE ACTIVITY MOVES BEYOND THE LA BORDER...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LIKELY LESSENING THE SVR RISKS. UNTIL THEN...DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN TX...PARTICULARLY FROM JASPER TX VCNTY NWD. PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS SPREADING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION ATTM. A FEW TSTMS WERE TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN AR/ERN OK SWD INTO FAR NE TX. THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...MEAGER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO KEEP ANY SVR THREATS LIMITED TO ISOLD...MARGINALLY SVR HAILSTONES. IN SUMMARY...ASIDE FROM A SHORT-TERM LINGERING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS ECNTRL TX/UPPER TX COAST...IT APPEARS THE SVR THREATS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS WW 840. ..RACY.. 10/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30719747 33759561 34679410 34099290 31959343 30669489 30149602 30399747  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 27 10:40:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 27 Oct 2006 06:40:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271043 MSZ000-LAZ000-271215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...FAR SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 271043Z - 271215Z AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS IN A LINE MOVING ACROSS SRN LA. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW LATE TONIGHT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN MS WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD INTO WRN LA. A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN MS WHICH HAS CONFINED THE WARM SECTOR TO A SMALL AREA IN SERN LA. SFC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ORLEANS ARE BACKED WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG 50 KT WINDS AROUND 700 MB IS CREATING A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN LA. THE SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADO THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS. ALTHOUGH SRN MS IS CURRENTLY STABILIZED BY RAINFALL...CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP THE WARM SECTOR TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS FAR SRN MS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS RESULTING IN MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THERE AROUND DAYBREAK. ..BROYLES.. 10/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... 29578860 29199077 29299139 30209156 30609079 30868854  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 27 14:11:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 27 Oct 2006 10:11:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271414 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-271615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0914 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MS...SRN AL...EXTREME SERN LA...WRN FL PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 841... VALID 271414Z - 271615Z PRIMARY LINE OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WW AREA...MOST INTENSE PORTIONS CLEARING PLAQUEMINES PARISH LA AND SERN MS WITHIN BY ABOUT 16Z AND REMAINDER OF SERN LA BY ABOUT 1430Z. ADDITIONAL/BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LINE FROM PERDIDO RIVER SWWD OFFSHORE AL. SVR THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS WRN FL PANHANDLE...PERHAPS SRN TIER AL COUNTIES N OF FL BORDER...AND MAY REQUIRE EITHER ADDITIONAL WW OR LOCAL EXTENSION FOR THOSE AREAS. SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM COASTAL WATERS NEAR AAF NWWD ACROSS ESCAMBIA COUNTIES OF FL/AL....THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE AMIDST PRECIP PLUME. FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NWD THROUGH REMAINDER OF MORNING. GIVEN ITS ORIENTATION...FAVORABLE BUOYANCY EXTENDS LESS FAR INLAND WITH EWD EXTENT. RAIN-COOLED AIR IS FCST TO COVER MUCH OF SRN AL N OF FL PANHANDLE...PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION AT SFC AND PRECLUDING FASTER INLAND PENETRATION OF MARINE AIR MASS. GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE...AND FCST SLY COMPONENT OF SFC FLOW...PRIND SFC DEW POINTS MAY RECOVER INTO LOW 70S OVER COASTAL AREAS FROM AAF WNWWD TOWARD PNS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN LARGELY LINEAR ON MESOSCALE...SOME EMBEDDED/RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD ROTATE AMIDST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...WITH CONTINUED RISK OF TORNADOES. DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH SMALL BOWS. PRE-STORM LIX SOUNDING...MOB VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER SPEED SHEAR TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS -- I.E. 150-350 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH -- DESPITE LACK OF MORE PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THAT LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 10/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... 29059056 29458957 30048933 30628908 30968872 31288790 31208678 31038601 30738551 30078526 29728539 29768548 30088578 30348638 30338701 30188837 30048884 29788879 29548900 29368921 29168895 28918941 29308976 29019026  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 30 05:52:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 30 Oct 2006 00:52:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300555 NDZ000-MTZ000-301100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2174 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST SUN OCT 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT THROUGH NWRN ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 300555Z - 301100Z SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE OVER NERN MT WITH HEAVIER RATES DEVELOPING EWD INTO NWRN ND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS EVENING A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER WRN SD. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH S CNTRL SD WITH A STRONG 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ERN MT NEWD THROUGH ND. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH SRN MT/NRN WY THIS MORNING...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE OVER SD. AS THIS OCCURS A SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS ND WITH INCREASING 800-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NERN MT INTO NWRN ND. NAM PFCS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ABOVE 600 MB AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND AS MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ADVANCES SEWD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR. RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. ..DIAL.. 10/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 48580158 48070218 47050570 47480749 48520686 49060397 48960199  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 1 03:40:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 30 Sep 2006 23:40:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010340 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-010545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 PM CDT SAT SEP 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TN...EXTREME NRN AL...NRN MS...E-CENTRAL/NERN AR. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 010340Z - 010545Z BKN LINE OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE BY 05Z...BISECTING TN FROM NE-SW AND PERHAPS BACKBUILDING OVER PORTIONS ERN AR/NWRN MS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STG GUSTS. REFLECTIVITY AND IR IMAGERY EACH INDICATE CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG WSW-ENE ORIENTED LINE FROM NERN MIDDLE TN ACROSS BNA AREA...TO VICINITY DYR. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING CLOSE TO 850 MB COLD FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD OVER TN AND ERN AR DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...AND INTO NRN PORTIONS MS/AL AFTER ABOUT 06Z. 850-925 MB RAOB ANALYSES FROM 00Z INDICATE NARROW WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER AND UPSTREAM -- SSW-W -- OF DISCUSSION AREA. MOIST AXIS IN THAT LAYER SHOULD REMAIN PARALLEL TO AND JUST AHEAD OF 850 MB FRONT...WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED MUCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER MID TN TO 2500 J/KG INVOF MEM. THIS FAVORS DEVELOPMENT PATICULARLY FROM MID TN WSWWD TOWARD ERN AR AND NRN MS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR ORGANIZED...POTENTIALLY ROTATING STORMS WITH 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER SRN TN...WEAKENING TO 35-45 KT OVER ERN AR AND NWRN MS. ..EDWARDS.. 10/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... 35829019 35848886 36088722 36468543 36378468 35478512 34838614 34029021 34069117 35089118  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 3 23:06:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 03 Oct 2006 19:06:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032306 WIZ000-MNZ000-040030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL MN INTO CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 807... VALID 032306Z - 040030Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER MUCH OF MN WITHIN WW 807...IN WAKE OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER NOW CROSSING THE MN/WI BORDER. HOWEVER...THREAT IS INCREASING OVER MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL WI. A NEW WW IS LIKELY. SEVERE STORMS NOW MOVING INTO NWRN WI WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE AND WILL CONTINUE ESEWD...POSSIBLY TURNING MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH TIME. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH TIME...IF THESE STORMS...CURRENTLY EXHIBITING SOME SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE...GROW INTO A LARGER SCALE BOW. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF MCD THIS DISCUSSION AREA MAY STILL POSE A TORNADO THREAT...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH LAYER EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A0A 73-75 F. ..JEWELL.. 10/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45759278 46029257 46049101 45758950 45278859 44778856 44438891 44759018 45149146  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 3 23:21:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 03 Oct 2006 19:21:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032320 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-040045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...W-CENTRAL/SWRN WI. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 808... VALID 032320Z - 040045Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INVOF MURRAY COUNTY MN...WARM FRONT ESEWD TO BETWEEN LSE-DBQ THEN ACROSS WI/IL BORDER REGION. SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM SFC LOW NEWD OVER MSP METRO...TO NEAR EAU...THEN SEWD TOWARD MKE. NRN FRONTAL ZONE IS QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS WI AND ERN MN...BUT IS MOVING SWD OVER SWRN MN ALONG AND JUST NE OF SFC LOW POSITION. WW MAY BE CLEARED N OF SWD-MOVING SEGMENT OF NRN FRONT -- ACROSS SWRN AND PORTIONS S-CENTAL MN WHERE CAA WILL STABILIZE AIR MASS TOO MUCH FOR SFC-BASED STORMS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIFT NWD 15-20 KT SUCH THAT THESE FRONTS MERGE LATER THIS EVENING. MOST FAVORABLY SHEARED AND BUOYANT AIR MASS REMAINS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN MN AND PERHAPS SWRN WI. SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THAT REGIME DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH BASE OF EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS REMAINING AT SFC FOR TEMPS ROUGHLY 73-74 F AND HIGHER. SFC CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED NEAR LOW AND ADJACENT PORTIONS WARM FRONT...AS LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD. MAIN CONCERN ATTM IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION CAN INITIATE IN THIS AIR MASS...GIVEN APPARENT INCREASE IN SBCINH NOW UNDERWAY. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THICK MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO REGION FROM W. WHILE THIS REPRESENTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ALOFT...IT ALSO HAS INCREASED SBCINH THROUGH SHADING EFFECTS AND RESULTANT EARLY LOSS OF SFC INSOLATION. AIR MASS ALONG AND JUST S OF NRN FRONT -- BETWEEN MSP-EAU -- MAY BE FAVORABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...THOUGH THIS WILL DECREASE WITH TIME AS SFC COOLS. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER E FROM EAU AREA ACROSS CENTRAL WI...AS NOTED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064. ..EDWARDS.. 10/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43499333 43539412 43799470 44159479 44729378 45119209 45099105 44709039 43699016 43509057  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 01:42:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 03 Oct 2006 21:42:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040142 MIZ000-040345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0842 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI...CENTRAL/NRN LM. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 040142Z - 040345Z LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES ABOVE SFC. THIS WILL PROMOTE BOTH NEW TSTMS DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF ACTIVITY MOVING EWD 30-40 KT FROM WI/LM. RAOB ANALYSIS...INCLUDING TAMDAR SOUNDING DATA...INDICATES 850 MB WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD 30-35 KT FROM SRN WI AND NERN IL ACROSS SWRN LM AND TOWARD THIS REGION. AS THIS FRONT APCHS...LLJ SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTO 35-45 KT RANGE. MOIST ADVECTION AND WAA-RELATED ASCENT IN 850-700 MB LAYER ARE FCST TO BOOST RH TO NEAR SATURATION ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR-SFC LAYER. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN CINH AND ALLOW PARCELS TO BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC. MODIFIED/UPSTREAM GRB RAOB...AND TIME SERIES OF RUC SOUNDINGS FOR WRN LOWER MI...SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED MUCAPES WILL INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z TO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEARS INCREASING TO 40-50 KT RANGE. INCREASES IN BOTH BUOYANCY AND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR FROM W-E ACROSS THIS AREA...AS WILL POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42978682 45408661 45398414 42898411  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 02:12:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 03 Oct 2006 22:12:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040210 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-040415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...W-CENTRAL/SWRN WI. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 808... VALID 040210Z - 040415Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PREVIOUS TWO FRONTAL ZONES CONSOLIDATING ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN MN AND SWRN WI...E OF LOW LOCATED ABOUT 50 SW MKT. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD GENERALLY ALONG MN/IA LINE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY OF UP TO 1.75 INCH HAIL IN DUNN COUNTY WI IS MOVING SEWD 30-35 KT FROM TREMPEALEAU/JACKSON COUNTIES...GENERALLY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN 850-925 MB LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LARGER HAIL AS IT MOVES SEWD TOWARD AREA NEAR OR JUST NE OF VOK...AND INTO WW 809. MEANWHILE...FARTHER W...SFC CAA CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL MN...N OF NRN FRONT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND INTERPOLATED MSP/ABR RAOB DATA SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED/TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG AND NW OF A MSP-RWF LINE...HOWEVER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL PRESENT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ELEVATED WAA...SUPPORTING MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG...ALONG WITH 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SVR OVER THIS AREA. SFC DIABATIC COOLING IN FRONTAL ZONE IS INCREASING SBCINH. ACCORDINGLY...BUOYANCY EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME...BUT STILL FAVORING SVR AMIDST STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43499333 43539412 43799470 44159479 45089395 45199215 45099105 44759080 43889062 43509057 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 04:17:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 04 Oct 2006 00:17:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040417 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040416 MIZ000-WIZ000-040615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WI...CENTRAL/NRN LM...LOWER PENINSULA OF MI...WRN LH. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 809...810... VALID 040416Z - 040615Z ELEVATED MCS IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD FROM WI AND N-CENTRAL LM...ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI. 40-50 KT LLJ IS EVIDENT ACROSS SRN WI AND SWRN LOWER MI BASED ON VWP/PROFILER DATA...TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS....ALONG WITH 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. MUCAPES INCREASE WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS LOWER MI FROM 500-2500 J/KG...DIMINISH OVER WRN LM...THEN INCREASE OVER WI AGAIN TO NEAR 4000 J/KG S LSE. OTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN BAND EXTENDING FROM ERN PORTION OF MCS NEAR HTL SSEWD TO NEAR DTX...ALONG ERN RIM OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTENING. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LOWER INVOF THIS ACTIVITY THAN FARTHER W...TSTMS MAY PRODUCE MRGL SVR HAIL AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD WRN/SRN LH AND ACROSS MI THUMB. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/ERN WI HAS BEEN STABILIZED TEMPORARILY ABOVE SFC BY COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER EAU AREA SUPERCELL AND CONVECTION NOW OVER ERN WI. HOWEVER...WAA ATOP NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER MAY DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SVR HAIL POTENTIAL FROM ADDITIONAL TSTMS MOVING EWD FROM SERN MN AND WW 808. ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 44059148 44999269 45668354 42548277  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 07:08:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 04 Oct 2006 03:08:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040707 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040707 MIZ000-WIZ000-040800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 810... VALID 040707Z - 040800Z THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING STORMS MAY INCREASE OVER CNTRL LOWER MI DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WITH COLD POOL AND COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE EXTENDS FROM NERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH CNTRL LOWER MI AND IS MOVING SEWD AT 35 KT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN THE MCS NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS THE STABLE...DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH COULD LIMIT THE ABILITY FOR SEVERE GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE SWRN PORTION OF THE LINE OVER CNTRL LOWER MI. THESE STORMS MAY SLOW THEIR SWD MOVEMENT AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS STORMS TRAIN FROM W TO E. ..DIAL.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 44059148 44999269 45668354 42548277  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 10:16:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 04 Oct 2006 06:16:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041015 MIZ000-041115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 041015Z - 041115Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A HAIL THREAT OVER CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OR ORGANIZATION. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL LOWER MI INTO EXTREME SRN WI. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EXIST S OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MUCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 850MB-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO. WIND FIELDS REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND STORMS CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY ORGANIZED. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REMAINING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE EXHAUSTED BY ONGOING STORMS. STORMS OVER LOWER MI MAY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR MAINLY HAIL...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER W ACROSS SRN WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..DIAL.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 43558429 42978331 42258358 41988497 41858654 42868599 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 10:21:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 04 Oct 2006 06:21:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041020 COR MIZ000-041115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 041020Z - 041115Z CORRECTED FOR AREA AFFECTED BY MD CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A HAIL THREAT OVER CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OR ORGANIZATION. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL LOWER MI INTO EXTREME SRN WI. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EXIST S OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MUCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 850MB-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO. WIND FIELDS REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AND STORMS CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY ORGANIZED. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REMAINING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE EXHAUSTED BY ONGOING STORMS. STORMS OVER LOWER MI MAY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR MAINLY HAIL...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER W ACROSS SRN WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..DIAL.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 43558429 42978331 42258358 41988497 41858654 42868599  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 4 11:03:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 04 Oct 2006 07:03:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 041103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041103 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-041230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY AND NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 041103Z - 041230Z SQUALL LINE APPROACHING WRN NY MAY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH EARLY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE ONTARIO SWWD INTO EXTREME SRN ONTARIO CONTINUES MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT AND IS APPROACHING EXTREME WRN NY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE...INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM SRN LOWER MI NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO. GIVEN THE STRONGER SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN W OF THE LEADING LINE...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT EWD DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FAST ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT THIS MORNING. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST MAINLY AS THE LINE MOVES INTO WRN NY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 10/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42337969 43017883 43507812 43157716 42107817 41458013 41828093  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 5 19:12:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 05 Oct 2006 15:12:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 051911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051911 NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-052015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT THU OCT 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM ERN WV INTO NWRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 051911Z - 052015Z STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM WRN VA...SWWD INTO ERN TN HAS CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTED TO RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO OROGRAPHICAL AFFECTS...LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE APPEARS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER...ARCING SWWD INTO ERN TN. WITH WEAK-MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...IT APPEARS HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN MAINTAINING PSEUDO-ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS THAT SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SEWD BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PROSPECT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL AND SEVERE WATCH IS UNLIKELY. ..DARROW.. 10/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 37468281 37028019 35977976 35608095 36178205 35888348 36218457 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 5 20:08:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 05 Oct 2006 16:08:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052008 IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-052215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT THU OCT 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND S-CNTRL ID...EXTREME NERN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 052008Z - 052215Z THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH A THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND HAIL. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD EXPANDING NWD ACROSS NERN NV INTO SWRN ID...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN...AND ALSO OVER THE CNTRL ID MTNS. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AGAIN IN PLACE ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES FAVORING SUPERCELLS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE INCREASING E OF SFC TROUGH AXIS...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NOT AS IDEAL AS YESTERDAY GIVEN SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING TAKING PLACE. THIS IS REFLECTED BY EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER UT INTO SERN ID/FAR ERN NV. SURFACE HEATING IS ALSO BEING HAMPERED UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. THUS...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OVER FAR SWRN ID/NERN NV...CROSSING INTO THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE CNTRL MTNS. GIVEN STRONGLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A STRONG STORM...A TORNADO COULD OCCUR BUT WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF GIVEN ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND UNDERCUTTING STABLE OUTFLOW. ..JEWELL.. 10/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... 41491542 42441604 43341603 44491537 44761474 44701338 43951276 42731290 42111362 41551413  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 5 22:15:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 05 Oct 2006 18:15:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 052201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052201 UTZ000-AZZ000-052330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT THU OCT 05 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL AZ INTO SRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 052201Z - 052330Z POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED...SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SGU TO E OF IGM TO N OF PHX...DISPLACED TO THE E OF PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW OVER E-CNTRL CA. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND LOCAL VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT A BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY FROM N OF PRC TO NEAR PGA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE TENDED TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THIS ZONE OF FORCING WITH MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT. THE PRESENCE OF DEEP SLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..MEAD.. 10/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF... 34471277 35791311 36971306 37581235 37711128 37361030 36281025 34571103 34241186  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 7 11:15:34 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 07 Oct 2006 07:15:34 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 071118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071118 VAZ000-NCZ000-071245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 AM CDT SAT OCT 07 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 071118Z - 071245Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS INDICATED ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SERN VA. WW NOT EXPECTED AS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT. SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ATTM OVER EXTREME SERN VA...WITH A VERY SMALL ZONE OF MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INLAND ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SERN VA WITHIN ELY FLOW JUST N OF LOW. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN WEAK/NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC...AOB 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE -- ELEVATED ABOVE A SLIGHTLY-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER -- IS INDICATED. WITHIN AREA OF ELY/NELY SURFACE FLOW N OF LOW...STRONGLY-VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT IS YIELDING SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THOUGH A SUPERCELL STORM MOVED ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...THIS STORM HAS WEAKENED SINCE MOVING ONSHORE IN THE CITY OF HAMPTON. LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS LITTLE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO SPIN-UP OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT SUPERCELL STORM WHICH MAY EVOLVE/MOVE WNWWD ACROSS SERN VA. THOUGH THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS...SURFACE LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS UPPER LOW RETROGRADES SWWD -- THUS RESULTING IN A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY. ..GOSS.. 10/07/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ... 36517588 36787669 37307700 37627641 37577560 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 8 08:19:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 08 Oct 2006 04:19:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 080822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080821 NCZ000-SCZ000-080945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NC/NERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 080821Z - 080945Z SMALL AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC/NERN SC ATTM. LIMITED POTENTIAL AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL THREAT SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER SC SHOULD CONTINUED DRIFTING SLOWLY SWWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC. MOST FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM...WITH LIMITED IF ANY INLAND PENETRATION OF THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR ANTICIPATED. A FEW ROTATING STORMS ARE EVIDENT JUST S OF ILM OVER THE GULF STREAM...AS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST COUPLE OF KM ARE YIELDING SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY-ELEVATED AS THEY CONTINUE MOVING NWD TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY INLAND...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS BRUNSWICK COUNTY NC AND ADJACENT HORRY COUNTY SC. ..GOSS.. 10/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM... 33687908 34017900 34257789 33897783 33537870  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 03:41:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 09 Oct 2006 23:41:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100344 TXZ000-100545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 PM CDT MON OCT 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 100344Z - 100545Z SOME AREAS FROM THE TRANS-PECOS EWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND NWD TO PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHORTLY. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT ENEWD FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. STRONG TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FROM SRN NM TO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ATTM. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND FORCING WERE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MASS TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF A WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM 15 S SEP TO 30 S FST. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SHEAR ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND PERSISTENCE. GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HAIL FROM CELLS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...CONVECTION OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT AND WITH ACCESS TO MOIST INFLOW CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE...FROM WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER PECOS COUNTY SEWD...COULD BE NEAR SURFACE-BASED AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO. ..CARBIN.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30399835 30000102 30600134 32140118 32460095 32580044 32699956 32429867 31699796  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 06:40:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2006 02:40:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 100643 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100643 TXZ000-100815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TX...FROM THE TX BIG BEND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 100643Z - 100815Z TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF SW TX...LIKELY REQUIRING TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE. THIS WATCH WOULD INCLUDE AREAS CURRENTLY WITHIN THE SRN HALF OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 819. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS INCREASING WITH TIME WITHIN MOIST SELY FLOW S OF COLD FRONT -- WHICH HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY S OF SAN ANGELO...ACROSS MCCULLOCH/MENARD/ SCHLEICHER COUNTIES OF SW TX. WITH LITTLE SWD PUSH OF THE FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NW AS UVA /UVALDE TX/. THOUGH STORM MORPHOLOGY REMAINS MORE CLUSTERED/LINEAR N OF FRONT...A FEW ISOLATED/SUPERCELL STORMS ARE INDICATED S OF FRONT. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT S OF FRONT WITHIN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL VEERING OBSERVED /10 KT SELY SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT FROM THE SW AT 3 KM PER LATEST DEL RIO WSR-88D VWP/...COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...FURTHER COOLING ALOFT...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30760317 31030165 31049848 30019845 28920011 29030061 29730143 29800238 29730268 29020318 29170387 29440410  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 10:01:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2006 06:01:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101000 TXZ000-101130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN AND INTO CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 820... VALID 101000Z - 101130Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 820...WITH POTENTIAL INCREASING E OF WW. NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN -- WITH DEWPOINTS NOW NEAR 70 IN MOST LOCALES -- S OF FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR CORSICANA TX TO NEAR JUNCTION TX. SMALL-SCALE LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS MCCULLOCH/SAN SABA/MASON COUNTIES REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. MEANWHILE...A SECOND LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS CROCKETT AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES ALSO REMAINS POTENTIALLY SEVERE...WITH EMBEDDED ROTATION SIGNATURES NOTED WITHIN THE LINE OVER THE PAST HOUR. FINALLY...A MORE ISOLATED/SUPERCELL STORM IS MOVING ACROSS GILLESPIE COUNTY...WITH OTHER/WEAKER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INCREASING E OF THE WW. OVERALL...CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING AND STRONG ENEWD SURGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD OUT OF WW 820. THEREFORE...AREAS E OF THIS WW ARE BEING MONITORED FOR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29830170 30260188 31090096 31519944 31929644 31119512 29079672 29019925  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 13:49:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2006 09:49:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101352 TXZ000-101515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0852 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 820... VALID 101352Z - 101515Z REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 820 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. WEAKENING UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD FROM NERN NM INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING. SRN EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WERE SKIRTING ACROSS CNTRL TX...BUT THE STRONGEST ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE N OF CNTRL TX. WRN EXTENT OF THE LINEAR MCS SITUATED W OF I-35 HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SINCE 12Z WITH THE STRONGEST STORM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SAN MARCOS/NEW BRAUNFELS REGION BY 15Z. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW REMAINS STRONGEST ACROSS SCNTRL AND DEEP S TX. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SURGE SEWD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL TX. THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED AND/OR SHIFTED INTO THE NEW TORNADO WATCH 821...HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS SCNTRL TX. ISOLD DAMAGING GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS SCNTRL TX...AND THAT REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT AND BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. ..RACY.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29610185 30500170 31659889 31919703 31249643 30339708 29429819 28999939  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 14:29:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2006 10:29:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101431 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101431 TXZ000-101630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0931 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 821... VALID 101431Z - 101630Z 14Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DOUBLE STRUCTURE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN TX. INITIAL SURGE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WAS SITUATED FROM VCNTY HOUSTON NWWD INTO THE KCLL AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QUALITY MARITIME MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING NWD INTO THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND THE KSAT REGION. LINEAR MCS THAT EVOLVED ACROSS CNTRL TX WEAKENED WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...BUT REMAINS STRONG FROM THE KAUS/KBAZ REGION NEWD TOWARD KCLL. SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BAND OF TSTMS WAS RESULTING IN MORE DISCRETE TSTMS VCNTY LOCKHART AND LA GRANGE. STRONGER TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONTS AND TRACK ESEWD INTO SERN TX THROUGH THE MORNING. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS VEERED OVER SCNTRL TX...THE LDB PROFILER SUGGESTS THAT 0-1KM SRH FOR AN EWD MOVING STORM WAS AROUND 150-175 M2/S2. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WITH THE STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY CROSS THE WARM FRONTS. ..RACY.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29779882 30529818 32139589 31569454 30559426 29489522 29079673  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 16:25:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2006 12:25:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101628 TXZ000-101800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX AND UPPER TX COASTAL AREA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 821... VALID 101628Z - 101800Z LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS SERN TX TOWARD THE UPPER COAST. DOWNSTREAM...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT AS THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE HOUSTON AREA. MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FEED THE APPROACHING STORMS AND LIKELY SUPPORT A TSTM THREAT INTO THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BEFORE 18Z. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR HOUSTON AS SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS. THIS IS GENERALLY IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT AND STRONGER STORMS SHOULD TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TRENDS IN THE HGX VWP SUGGESTS THAT 0-1KM SHEAR WAS INCREASING TO ABOVE 150 M2/S2 FOR A DISCRETE EWD MOVING STORM. THUS...WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS...AN ISOLD TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCS. MOST OF THE TSTMS WILL BE CLEARING THE TORNADO WATCH BY 17-18Z. ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WILL BE ISOLD AND LIMITED TO A FAIRLY SMALL AREA. AFTER CONSULTING WFO HGX...A DECISION WILL BE MADE ON WHETHER TO ISSUE A NEW WATCH DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER TX COASTAL AREA. ..RACY.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29239736 30009686 31729548 31569454 30009437 29149534 29079673  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 10 17:31:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2006 13:31:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101734 LAZ000-TXZ000-101830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 822... VALID 101734Z - 101830Z LINE SEGMENT MOVING INTO CNTRL HARRIS COUNTY HAS ACCELERATED TO 35-40 KTS WITH A STRONG REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BOW NEAR KIAH AT 18Z AND ALONG THE NRN TIP OF GALVESTON BAY AT 1830Z. THIS LINE HAS BEEN LONG-LIVED WITH ITS SUPERCELL ORIGIN BETWEEN AUSTIN AND BRENHAM. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY SWD TO JUST WEST OF SUGAR LAND...WHARTON AND EL CAMPO. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BOW OR BRIEFLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITHIN THE LINE AS THEY MOVE TO THE COAST BY 19-20Z. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT THERE WILL BE RISKS FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS MORE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD AND MERGE WITH THE LINE SEGMENTS. ..RACY.. 10/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP... 31299452 29669350 28769499 28069692 28509742 28839715 29519592 30829545  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 14 07:03:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2006 03:03:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140705 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-140830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA / SRN NV / NWRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 140705Z - 140830Z ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 0645Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO ORGANIZED TSTMS DISPLAYING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS 40-50 MILES S OF LAS MOVING 180/25-30 KT. LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS IN WHICH THESE TWO MORE INTENSE CELLS ARE EMBEDDED APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE SE OF EED NNWWD TO ALONG THE CA/NV BORDER...AND FORCED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER CO VALLEY. AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER VEERING TO SSELY IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THROUGH 0830Z...THE GREATEST THREAT OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS CLARK COUNTY NV INTO WRN MOHAVE COUNTY AZ WITHIN A SMALL AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE SMALL SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF THIS THREAT. ..MEAD.. 10/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF... 35141533 35691601 36501604 37111551 37121441 36551364 35491377 34961393 34831437 34821469  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 14 15:49:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2006 11:49:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141551 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141551 AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-141745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ARIZONA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141551Z - 141745Z A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF CURRENT THREAT. BUT... TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL. WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE STILL ROTATING AROUND ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SUPPORTED BY DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE LOWER DESERTS...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING...NOW PIVOTING IN ARC ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA /INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AND FLAGSTAFF AREAS/. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ONGOING BENEATH FAVORABLE DIVERGENT QUADRANT NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY ARIZONA INTO CLARK COUNTY NEVADA /INCLUDING THE LAS VEGAS AREA/...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE INSOLATION IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION. BENEATH 40-50 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WEAK MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY. CAPE IN GENERAL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS...POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. GUSTY WINDS/HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT...AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN HIGHEST IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NORTH OF THE LOWER DESERTS. ..KERR.. 10/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF... 35911538 36661488 37111343 36871154 36311078 35541035 34311041 32801142 33111206 34071207 34621281 34981460  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 14 19:40:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2006 15:40:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 141942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141941 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-142115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NW AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 141941Z - 142115Z CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS NW AZ THIS AFTERNOON...IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER EXTREME SE CA. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...AND BENEATH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -18 C...IS SUPPORTING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NW AZ. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE GRADUALLY IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE NEXT FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY E/NE OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. ..THOMPSON.. 10/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF... 36601321 36371282 35571272 35071288 34501367 34421449 35041478 35501481 36441431 36651384  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 14 20:52:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2006 16:52:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142054 TXZ000-NMZ000-142230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2112 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...W TX...EXTREME SE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 142054Z - 142230Z WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS W TX/SE NM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON ON THE NOSE OF AN 80-100 KT UPPER JET /PER WHITE SANDS PROFILER/ AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND REDUCED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. E OF THIS ACTIVITY...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE SPREADING NWWD UP THE PECOS VALLEY...AND THIS MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR OVER THIS AREA /ROUGHLY 6 C/KM/...AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL DESPITE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORING SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WW. ..THOMPSON.. 10/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ... 32000301 31550282 31100291 30750339 30610374 30900481 31340531 31910553 32360517 32490438 32360346  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 14 23:22:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2006 19:22:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 142324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142324 TXZ000-NMZ000-150030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN TX AND EXTREME SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 142324Z - 150030Z MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WRN TX AND EXTREME SERN NM DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE ADVECTED LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO WRN TX...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE RESULTING IN MUCAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBERS ACROSS SWRN TX THROUGH THE EVENING AS A JET MAX AND INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREADS INTO THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO ROTATE AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE 3/4 TO 1 INCH SIZE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..IMY.. 10/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ... 30360255 30030435 31510531 32690296 32340202 31330154 30930141  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 15 10:03:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 06:03:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 151005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151005 NMZ000-TXZ000-151130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NM INTO FAR WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 151005Z - 151130Z INTENSIFYING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS MORNING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 0950Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED INTENSIFYING TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM...TO THE N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM S OF ELP NWWD INTO W-CNTRL NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A BAND OF IMPLIED DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT /PRECEDING UPPER LOW OVER AZ/ IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD THROUGH NM AND ACTING ON A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND CONTRIBUTING TO THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION WITHIN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG. CORRESPONDING KINEMATIC PROFILES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ABOVE THIS FRONTAL INVERSION. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL...HOWEVER THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..MEAD.. 10/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 32310806 33030796 33540742 33340607 32720545 32020513 31500526 31280566 31550673 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 15 14:44:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 10:44:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 151446 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151445 TXZ000-NMZ000-151545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE NM INTO SW/W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 151445Z - 151545Z EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW IS STILL SLOW...BUT BECOMING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU THIS MORNING...AND FORCING APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOST INTENSE CELL TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN LEA COUNTY NM INTO AREAS WEST OF LUBBOCK SEEMS TO BE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED IN WAKE OF AN IMPULSE ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ON SOUTHERN/EASTERN FRINGE OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND UNCERTAINTIES DO EXIST CONCERNING MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW FOR SURFACE HEATING BY MID DAY. IF THIS OCCURS... MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD APPROACH/EXCEED 1000 J/KG...PROVIDING INCREASING SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. BENEATH 40-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...20+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS A TORNADO. ..KERR.. 10/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32680647 33490563 34270486 34890415 35260287 34620195 33790147 33090173 32360217 31760292 31340439 31180592 31650638 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 15 20:00:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 16:00:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152002 TXZ000-NMZ000-152130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN NM INTO SWRN/WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825... VALID 152002Z - 152130Z CONTINUE WW. SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS/THE BIG BEND REGION. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BECOME MINIMAL WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 500 J/KG...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SUPPORTED BY OROGRAPHY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST STRONG MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. ..KERR.. 10/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ... 31790645 32390564 32040394 32450268 31320203 30320200 29510240 28900325 29300490 30720593  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 15 23:55:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 19:55:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 152357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152357 TXZ000-160100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826... VALID 152357Z - 160100Z MULTI SEGMENTED WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOST FOCUSED AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF MAF...COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST SUPERCELL THAT HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED A TORNADO. LATEST SFC MAP SUGGESTS AT LEAST TWO IDENTIFIABLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...ORIENTED E-W...EXTEND ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO THIS REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...HOWEVER WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY...EXCEPT ALONG A NARROW WEDGE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS UPDRAFT INTENSITY WILL STRUGGLE WITH MANY STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20 WHERE STORM ROTATION IS LACKING. IN THE SHORT TERM TORNADIC SUPERCELL NW OF FST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 10/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... 30520249 31070336 32040255 32320163 31840088 30790117 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 03:55:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2006 23:55:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160357 LAZ000-TXZ000-160500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX COASTAL PLAINS...SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 160357Z - 160500Z A SUBTLE...YET POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT...DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX AT ROUGHLY 35 KT. THIS FEATURE APPEARS LOOSELY CONNECTED TO TROPICAL SYSTEM DEEP OVER CNTRL MEXICO WHICH IS NOW EJECTING AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE SATURATED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS IN PLACE WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. LLJ IS INCREASING ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO THE SABINE RIVER AND A WEAK SFC LOW...OR AT LEAST A WAVE...WILL FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR SAT OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE ...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. TORNADO THREAT WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS UPDRAFTS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 27629720 28519775 29709734 30839483 30569319 29539290 28829507 27959656 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 06:24:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 02:24:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160626 LAZ000-MSZ000-160800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 160626Z - 160800Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 06Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES IN EXISTENCE ACROSS ERN TX INTO LA. IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE METROPLEX SEWD TO NEAR MSY WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONT /DELINEATING TRUE MARITIME AIR MASS/ STRETCHED FROM NEAR OR JUST N OF HOU ESEWD TO JUST OFF THE LA COAST. NEW ORLEANS RADAR DATA INDICATE SMALL SUPERCELLS OVER LAFOURCHE AND TERREBONNE PARISHES AS OF 0615Z WITH A MOVEMENT OF 175/25 KT. INSPECTION OF RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT BY 08-09Z THE THREAT OF MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE AS MARITIME BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WILL OFFSET MARGINAL INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 30349210 30649184 30809148 30599050 30338971 29748913 28958929 28859017 29329168  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 08:24:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 04:24:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160825 LAZ000-TXZ000-161000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE / UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 827... VALID 160825Z - 161000Z THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA. 08Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MARITIME WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM APPROXIMATELY 40 N VCT TO JUST N OF HOU TO NEAR BPT WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 70S TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY. CURRENT HOU VWP INDICATES MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2...HOWEVER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INVOF THIS BOUNDARY WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2. TRAINING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE AS OF 0815Z FROM CHAMBERS/LIBERTY COUNTIES SWWD TO OFF GALVESTON ISLAND...A TREND WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. WHILE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELLS ACROSS WW AREA...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD AND INTERACTING WITH THE MARINE WARM FRONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS FROM HARRIS EWD THROUGH LIBERTY AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 10Z. EXPECT THIS ENHANCED THREAT TO SLOWLY SHIFT NWD WITH TIME IN CONCERT WITH THE NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. ..MEAD.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28859736 30319709 30849567 30779298 30749152 29749066 28779103 29019362 27869629  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 08:48:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 04:48:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 160850 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160850 TXZ000-161015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 160850Z - 161015Z SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 12Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. 08Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR DRT WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING GENERALLY EWD TO NEAR OR JUST S OF SAT. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS WARM AND QUITE MOIST EARLY THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP. TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO...W-SW OF DRT...LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SHIFTING SEWD THROUGH SRN NM. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS...AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS STORMS CROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT. CURRENT VWP FROM DRT INDICATES VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 150 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KT. WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INTERACTING WITH WARM FRONT. ..MEAD.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... 29660084 29910058 29969991 29929929 29479883 28989882 28349916 28119942 28049998 28880068  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 10:30:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 06:30:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161032 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-161200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST EWD THROUGH SRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 827...828... VALID 161032Z - 161200Z THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW/S 827 AND 828. THIS THREAT IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT N OF WW 827 AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY. 10Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN DRT AND JCT WITH ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD INTO NERN TX. ASSOCIATED MARINE WARM FRONT EXTENDS GENERALLY EWD FROM THIS LOW TO N OF HOU TO BPT TO NEAR LCH INTO FAR SERN LA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WITH WARM FRONT CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH SERN TX AND SWRN LA. AS OF 1015Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS FROM NEAR HOU EWD TO NEAR AND N OF BPT...AS WELL AS E AND NE OF LCH AND NEAR AND S OF MSY. LOCAL VWPS INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY LLJ AXIS EXISTS BETWEEN HOU AND LCH WHICH IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 350-450 M2/S2. MOREOVER...RECENT BPT OBSERVATION INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS /4.2 MB PER 3 HR/ AND GUSTY SELY WINDS...INDICATIVE OF STRONG FORCING AND TURBULENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING OCCURRING ALONG LLJ AXIS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER...THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENENCE OF SUPERCELLS /SOME TORNADIC/ ALONG AND S OF MARINE WARM FRONT AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NWD. ..MEAD.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29039712 30259686 30869602 30749387 30699140 30368954 30148883 28888873 28358945 28879239 28729443 27879628  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 12:50:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 08:50:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161251 LAZ000-TXZ000-161415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL TX INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 161251Z - 161415Z SUPERCELL AND INHERENT TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF WW 829 BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY AT THAT TIME. 12Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WARM FRONT /DELINEATING TRUE MARITIME AIR MASS/ CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD...EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF UTS ESEWD TO N OF BPT...LCH AND LFT. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY WARM FRONT STRETCHES SEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO FAR SERN MS. BASED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS SITUATED S OF MARINE WARM FRONT OWING TO VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. AS SUCH...SRM RADAR DATA SHOW INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE LOCATED VERY NEAR TO THIS BOUNDARY FROM HARDIN COUNTY WWD INTO SAN JACINTO AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IN TX AND BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SWRN LA. FARTHER TO THE N...STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BASED ON 12Z SHV/JAN SOUNDINGS...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE BASED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD LATER THIS MORNING. ..MEAD.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... 31529507 31939509 32349432 32279301 32089225 31759204 31529230 31519273 31389343 31239379 31119464  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 17:37:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 13:37:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161739 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-161915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/WRN HALF OF LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 830... VALID 161739Z - 161915Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW. SURFACE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOW NWD ADVECTION OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS INTO NRN LA...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF WW. THOUGH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/WEAK LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY...SHEAR REMAINS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLOGENESIS. FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIME...AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FASTER FLOW FIELD ALOFT APPROACH FROM THE W AND LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK -- AS FURTHER ILLUSTRATED BY OVERALL LACK OF CG LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS -- AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. ALONG WITH THREAT SPREADING NWD WITH TIME ACROSS LA...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO MS AND ERN LA -- E OF WW -- WITH TIME...POSSIBLY REQUIRING NEW WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..GOSS.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 28689632 31339463 32549266 32449108 30949101 29339149 28389441  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 18:54:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 14:54:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 161856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161856 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-162000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 161856Z - 162000Z TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING E OF TORNADO WATCH 830 INTO ERN LA/SRN MS. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN LA AND ADJACENT SRN MS...WITH INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS MOVING N. ALONG WITH THE LACK OF OBSERVED LIGHTNING...THE NWD CELL MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW...BENEATH APPROXIMATELY 600 MB WHERE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SLY TO SWLY. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LIKELY TO COOL THE MID TROPOSPHERE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEEPEN WITH TIME AND EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME LIGHTNING...GIVEN MID 70S BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS WHICH CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD INTO SRN MS. THOUGH A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ONGOING/ROTATING SHOWERS...GREATER TORNADO THREAT WOULD EVOLVE AS CONVECTION DEEPENS WITH TIME. THEREFORE...NEW TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED ATTM...REFLECTING THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE AREA OF INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31288833 30038855 29649013 29839180 31129170 32109065 32548931 32328859  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 20:35:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 16:35:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162037 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-162200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/MUCH OF LA/PARTS OF SRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 830...831... VALID 162037Z - 162200Z TORNADO/LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW IS NOW INDICATED OVER SRN AR...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO S TX AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR MOBILE BAY. LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS CHARACTERIZE THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. WITHIN THIS TROPICAL/MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ONGOING...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN A NE-SW BAND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...RESULTING IN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION EVEN WITHIN SMALL RAIN SHOWERS. THOUGH THREAT FOR HAIL REMAINS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..GOSS.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 28979532 29179595 30509528 32349227 32148987 31568922 30018998 29449238  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 22:05:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 18:05:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162207 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-162230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS/PARTS OF SERN LA/SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 162207Z - 162230Z WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR SERN MS...PARTS OF SERN LA...SWRN AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER SRN AR...WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MS INTO FAR SWRN AL. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES/DEVELOPS NEWD...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD ACROSS THESE REGIONS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS...FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...STRONG SRH VALUES /0-1 KM VALUES EXCEEDING 450 M2/S2/ SUPPORT STORM ROTATION WITH NWD MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ..PETERS.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32608841 32658758 31978613 30368634 29578730 28958899 29748986 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 16 23:18:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 19:18:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162319 LAZ000-TXZ000-162345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/MUCH OF LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 830... VALID 162319Z - 162345Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN LA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SE TX /JEFFERSON COUNTY/ NEWD TO MADISON AND EAST CARROLL PARISHES IN NERN LA. THIS LINE WAS MOVING EWD...WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WERE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ERN PARTS OF CENTRAL LA AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA AFTER 00Z...WHEN THE CURRENT WATCH /WW 830 EXPIRES/. THUS...GIVEN PARAMETERS /0-1 KM SRH 300-400 M2/S2/ WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN LA. ..PETERS.. 10/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29259421 30319335 30869285 31569224 31169164 30319176 30109125 30159061 28909038 28549093  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 17 00:20:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 20:20:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170022 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-170115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA/PART OF SERN LA/CENTRAL AND SRN MS/SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 832... VALID 170022Z - 170115Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN WW 832. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF WW 832 INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN MS. VERY MOIST /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S/ AIR MASS EXTENDING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SRN AR TO WEST CENTRAL MS TO SWRN AL COMBINED WITH STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THIS THREAT IS EVIDENT WITH 1) DISCRETE CELLS IN WARM SECTOR WHICH EXTENDED FROM ERN/SRN LA EWD TO SWRN AL AND NWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MS...AND 2) EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS IN LINE OF STORMS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SW LA TO WEST CENTRAL MS. FARTHER N IN MS /TO THE N OF WW 832/...EXTENSIVE ONGOING RAINFALL HAS STABILIZED THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE NORTH END OF THE LINE OF STORMS...WHICH HAS MOVED FROM NERN LA INTO WEST CENTRAL MS...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST STORM ROTATION WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY THE N END OF BOWING SEGMENTS... WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. GIVEN THIS ISOLATED THREAT...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. ..PETERS.. 10/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 32528678 30738633 30008640 29818832 30178958 30129085 30119134 30829173 31339185 31579227 32219214 32899127 33749107 33759045 33758932 33588831 32778810 32498748 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 17 02:26:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 22:26:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170228 ALZ000-MSZ000-170300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN MS AND NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 170228Z - 170300Z NEW TORNADO WW WILL BE REQUIRED TO THE NORTH OF WW 832. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD INTO NWRN TO EAST CENTRAL MS AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVED INTO NERN AR THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND STRONG KINEMATICS ENHANCING SRH VALUES /0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR TORNADOES/ WIND DAMAGE TO THE NORTH OF WW 832. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED PERSISTENT BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG LINE OF ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM ERN LA INTO CENTRAL MS WITH SEVERAL ROTATION COUPLETS WITH THESE LINES. ..PETERS.. 10/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33308827 33278975 33429019 34398968 34988933 34978728 33708716 33198734 32808809  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 17 04:28:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 17 Oct 2006 00:28:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170430 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170429 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN LA/CENTRAL-SRN MS/SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 832...833... VALID 170429Z - 170530Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PARTS OF TORNADO WATCHES 832 AND 833. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES HAS BECOME PRIMARILY CONFINED TO A LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN CURRENTLY INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS SWWD THROUGH SWRN MS TO SOUTH CENTRAL LA. A TROPICAL-TYPE AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS WATCHES 832 AND 833 WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PER WEAK LAPSE RATES...STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 55-65 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-600+ M2/S2 REMAINS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT...IN ADDITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH BOWING SEGMENTS...TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE LEWP AND WITH BOW HEADS. ..PETERS.. 10/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29249346 31429142 31579114 32559024 33248972 33258834 32818801 32668690 30998642 30078646 29788798 30078937 30009056 29499104 28879129 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 20 16:54:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2006 12:54:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201656 RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-201900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY...RI...CT AND WRN/CNTRL MA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 201656Z - 201900Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN PA SWD THROUGH MD AND ERN VA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN NY INTO CT AND RI. WARM SECTOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES...WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 300 J/KG. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. LIFT ACCOMPANYING STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND CYCLOGENESIS WILL MAINTAIN A FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING NEAR COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW NORMAL TO THE LINE WILL INCREASE IN POST FRONTAL ZONE AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...AND MUCH OF THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY RESULT FROM INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW. SOME POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG THE LINE. ..DIAL.. 10/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 41047180 40557373 40097427 40297522 41137511 42637324 42547179 41607129 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 20 19:50:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2006 15:50:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201951 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-202145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...CT...RI...MA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 201951Z - 202145Z MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW LOW TOPPED LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM WRN MA SWD THROUGH CNTRL LONG ISLAND MOVING ENEWD AT 40 KT. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST HOUR AS THE LINE MOVED INTO THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME ERN NY WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NEWD THIS AFTERNOON PROMOTED BY ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AN EJECTING UPPER JET MAX. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MLCAPE IS AOB 300 J/KG DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. GRADIENT FLOW NORMAL TO THE LINE IN POST FRONTAL ZONE HAS STRENGTHENED AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WHERE HIGHER MOMENTUM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE CAN BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 10/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... 41807088 41107193 40727301 41467318 42437303 42847132 42507077 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 21 23:38:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2006 19:38:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 212339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212339 LAZ000-220115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 212339Z - 220115Z A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE CNTRL COAST OF LA AS A SUPERCELL MOVES ONSHORE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUMONT EWD ALONG THE COAST OF LA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S F WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. SFC WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CURRENTLY EXISTS 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF MORGAN CITY LA AND THIS STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS CELL AS IT MOVES ACROSS TERREBONNE COUNTY. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. ..BROYLES.. 10/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29208943 29139061 29279157 29429162 29619165 29999145 30059065 29938982 29828941  From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 22 08:30:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2006 04:30:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220831 FLZ000-ALZ000-221000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 220831Z - 221000Z ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WATERSPOUT THREAT EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS /UNTIL ABOUT 12Z/. THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD ENE TO THE AQQ/TLH AREAS INTO FL BIG BEND AFTER 12Z. GIVEN ISOLATED THREAT...WW IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED COASTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE NWD...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDED SEWD FROM A LOW OVER SERN MS THROUGH FAR SWRN AL TO ALONG THE WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...MOIST AIR MASS RESIDING ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S IS MAINTAINING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES /35-40 KT/ ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHILE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2 PER EGLIN AFB VAD/ INDICATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS OFFSHORE OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...1. LESS THAN 5 MILES FROM COASTAL OKALOOSA COUNTY AND 2. 20-25 MILES SW OF COASTAL BAY COUNTY. LOW LEVEL ROTATION WAS NOTED WITH THESE STORMS...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS TO MOVE ONSHORE. INSTABILITY DECREASES NWD AWAY FROM THE COAST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INLAND SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 10/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 30198519 29768453 29248489 29358552 29878621 30018707 30098745 30418752 30608744 30618688 30638640 30568570  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 26 03:28:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 25 Oct 2006 23:28:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260331 COZ000-260930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 PM CDT WED OCT 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE FRONT RANGE OF CO...PALMER DIVIDE...NCNTRL CO MOUNTAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 260331Z - 260930Z UT UPPER LOW APPEARS TO STILL BE DIGGING PER SATL IMAGERY. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST SOLUTION AMONG SHORT TERM MODELS WITH A MORE SWD TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE H7 LOW. BY 12Z...THE ATTENDANT LOW SHOULD BE ACROSS SERN CO...WITH AN INCREASING DEEP NNELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. LATEST CYS AND FTG VWP/S ALREADY SHOW THE INCREASING NNELY WIND OF 20-30 KTS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM. H7 FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE DIVIDE AND COOLING ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ERN CO BETWEEN 06-12Z. AS THE COLUMN SATURATES BETWEEN NOW AND 09Z...WET-BULB COOLING AND INCREASING ICE PRODUCTION AT CLOUD TOP WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. MAGNITUDE OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PRIMARILY AFTER 09Z ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING BOULDER AND WRN DENVER METRO AREA AND TOWARD 12Z ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE INCLUDING THE REST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA SWD TOWARD KCOS. ..RACY.. 10/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... 40370515 39980507 39730493 39640457 39620418 39430415 39060431 38950469 39020485 38770488 38790504 38880530 39030542 39190551 39420579 39540589 40370551  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 26 11:19:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2006 07:19:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261122 COZ000-261615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN CO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261122Z - 261615Z HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AT 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD FROM DENVER METRO AREA AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE INTO COS AREA BY 12-14Z...WHILE SIMILAR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FURTHER SWD ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PUB REGION BY 15-18Z. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY 15Z...AS NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 25-40 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...CONTINUES TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW AS SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S EARLY THIS MORNING INTO SRN CO...AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT RESULTS IN DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ON TRACK PER 00Z/06Z NAM AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO MOVE ESE ALONG NM/CO BORDER INTO NERN NM BY 18Z. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER BECOMING MORE NORMAL TO THE ERN SLOPES/FRONT RANGE. THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. 06Z NAM/09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-12 TO -17 C/...ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES INITIALLY FROM DEN-COS AREAS THROUGH 15Z...AND THEN SWD INTO PUB REGION FROM 15-18Z. DENDRITIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR. ..PETERS.. 10/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... 40160555 40170476 39510377 39090376 38740338 38390374 37930373 37520349 37390388 37440484 37740524 38070555 38380569 38660573 39080570 39780592  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 26 17:23:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2006 13:23:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261726 LAZ000-TXZ000-261830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...SWRN LA. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 261726Z - 261830Z ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP IN WSW-ENE ALIGNED BAND FROM MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN ACROSS PORTIONS HOU METRO AREA...TO BETWEEN ESF-LFT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SLGT POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE/WARM FRONT FROM OFFSHORE ATCHAFALAYA BAY NWWD OVER CAMERON PARISH AND LOWER SABINE RIVER REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH AFTERNOON...SPREADING MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS MORE OF SRN LA. SFC WINDS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION ARE SLY TO SSWLY...WITH SOME BACKING POSSIBLE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS PRESSURES FALL IN WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING OK CYCLONE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH...AS WELL AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH INCREASING FROM AROUND 150-300 J/KG WITH EWD EXTENT...FROM MIDDLE TX COAST INTO SWRN LA...ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT. IN SUPPORT OF BOTH SVR POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT...VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS ANALYZED IN INFLOW AIR MASS EMANATING FROM GULF COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AREA THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AS SFC INSOLATION CONTINUES. PW VALUES 2-2.25 INCHES ARE BASED ON MODIFIED CRP/LCH RAOBS...PAST SEVERAL HOURS OF GPS DATA AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. HEAVY RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THIS BAND...INCLUDING PORTIONS THAT MAY BACKBUILD AND BECOME MORE DENSE WSW OF HOU. CONTINUED TRAINING OF ECHOES WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 10/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 29519556 30309449 30589340 30639259 30139250 29689300 29729377 29369471 29219521  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 26 20:59:56 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2006 16:59:56 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262103 OKZ000-KSZ000-262230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0403 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SRN KS AND EXTREME NRN OK. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 262103Z - 262230Z ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING SUPERCELL THREAT -- IS INCREASING INVOF KS/OK BORDER FROM S DDC EWD TO VICINITY PNC. ACTIVITY MAY BUILD ESEWD FROM RECENT DEVELOPMENT SW DDC...AND/OR INITIATE OVER KS/OK BORDER AREA S-SE OF ICT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN MEADE COUNTY KS AND WOODWARD COUNTY OK...WHICH IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO MORE PRONOUNCED/DISCRETE CYCLONE OVER NWRN/N-CENTRAL OK THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE LINE IS EVIDENT IN SFC DATA AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM NEAR GCK...SEWD THROUGH MEADE COUNTY LOW...THEN ESEWD AS QUASISTATIONARY FRONT TO KS/OK BORDER NW OF BVO. AS LOW STRENGTHENS...ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY INVOF CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ALSO WILL MARK NRN EDGE OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VARIES FROM 35-50 KT ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG JUST N OF BOUNDARY. NARROW AREA OF OPTIMAL BUOYANCY/SHEAR OVERLAP SHOULD PERSIST INVOF BOUNDARY. RUC SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR SFC OBS IN AREA...INDICATE MLCAPES 250-500 J/KG WITHIN PERSISTENT AREA OF CU EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY OVER OSAGE/KAY COUNTIES OK AND COWLEY COUNTY KS. THESE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INFLOW PARCELS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED WITH WNWWD DISTANCE ALONG MAIN CONVERGENCE LINE ACROSS SW KS. ..EDWARDS.. 10/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37740044 37619979 37359880 37459763 37089681 36779667 36499696 36529753 37019912 37480037  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 26 23:19:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2006 19:19:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262322 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...EXTREME SERN OK...EXTREME SWRN AR AND EXTREME NWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 262322Z - 270045Z LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE TX PNHDL UPPER LOW APPEAR TO BE IMPINGING ON THE SUB-TROPICAL CONVEYOR ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX PER INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THIS MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF A LONG TERM TSTM THREAT THAT WILL LAST INTO EARLY FRI ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND TYPE REMAIN IN QUESTION...HOWEVER. PASSAGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL WAVE EARLIER TODAY HAS LARGELY MODIFIED THE TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE WITH A DECIDEDLY VEERED REGIME JUST OFF THE SFC...THEN A GRADUALLY BACKING UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW. FURTHERMORE...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WERE RATHER POOR GIVEN SUB-TROPICAL NATURE TO THE CONVEYOR. 0-3KM LAPSE RATES WERE BETTER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WAS MORE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS ECNTRL THROUGH NERN TX. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT TSTMS WILL INDEED EXPAND AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME FROM PARTS OF ECNTRL TX NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST S OF THE RED RVR VLY AND EAST OF TEMPLE-CORSICANA AS MID-LEVEL STORMS BEGIN TO ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. BUT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALBEIT RATHER WEAK...WAS REGIONALLY BACKED IN A CORRIDOR FROM TYLER TO LUFKIN. AS STORMS MATURE...AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS REGION THROUGH MID-EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD TOWARD SRN AR AND LA LATER THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE EVOLVING PROBLEM AS NE-SW ORIENTED LINES TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGIONS. ..RACY.. 10/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD... 30929683 34119558 34349465 33799348 32619377 30479567  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 27 00:17:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2006 20:17:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270020 OKZ000-KSZ000-270245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 270020Z - 270245Z MAINLY ELEVATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN BUTLER AND COWLEY COUNTIES IN SE KS...AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THESE STORMS FORMED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ARE LOCATED IN A REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEASTERN OK ALONG A DRYLINE LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM PNC TO MLC...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS YET TO FORM.. LATEST RUC MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT SOME STORMS WILL FORM IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG THE DRYLINE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 03Z...AS THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF IT. WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE. A WEATHER WATCH IS THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE MOMENT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..LEVIT.. 10/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37069772 37499762 37769749 37919734 38149702 38169633 38149572 38089516 37519497 37179490 36909490 36629488 36279479 36069480 35699471 35349462 34979465 34589467 34629534 34649584 34869611 35209608 35459615 35989650 36399680 36559707 36749742 36949766  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 27 02:03:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2006 22:03:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270205 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0905 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...EXTREME SERN OK...SWRN AR AND NWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 840... VALID 270205Z - 270400Z BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS YET TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS EVE. TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG A PRE-DRYLINE CONFLUENCE FROM THE RED RVR VLY OF NERN TX/SERN OK SWD TO JUST EAST OF THE DALLAS METRO AREA AT MID-EVENING. PRIND THAT TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND NEWD INTO SWRN/CNTRL AR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH SPREADS EWD. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED COOL/CLOUDY MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS AR. THUS...WHILE THE DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS...DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. MOREOVER...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR BASED ON EVENING SOUNDINGS AND ONLY THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL. FARTHER S...TSTMS THAT FORMED FROM MID-LEVEL CONVECTION EARLIER HAVE EVOLVED INTO SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE OCCASIONAL BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...BOTH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES AND WITH NEWER STORMS NW-W OF KLFK. WHILE LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN TX HAS BEEN THRIVING ALONG NRN EDGE OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED THE MOST TODAY. MODIFYING THE 00Z KSHV SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT AS THE STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE ERN EDGE OF THE WW...THEY WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. WHILE THE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH...THE HEAVY RAINFALL PROSPECTS WILL INCREASE AS TSTMS TRAIN IN A SW-NE FASHION ACROSS NRN LA AND SERN TX. ..RACY.. 10/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30719747 33759561 34679410 34099290 31959343 30669489 30149602 30399747  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 27 04:49:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 27 Oct 2006 00:49:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270452 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 840... VALID 270452Z - 270615Z 04Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 1002 MB LOW OVER NWRN OK WITH A DRYLINE ARCING SWD THROUGH ERN OK...DALLAS AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT IN CNTRL TX. A PRE-DRYLINE CONFLUENCE ZONE EXISTED FROM NERN TX SWWD INTO SCNTRL TX WITH A MARINE WARM FRONT HUGGING THE UPPER TX COAST. MULTIPLE LINES OF TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING POSITIVE-TILT UPPER LOW. PRIMARY LINEAR SEGMENT WITHIN SVR TSTM WATCH 840 WAS MOVING SEWD INTO THE UPPER TX COAST COUNTIES...WHERE DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER WAS WARMEST. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO WCNTRL LA AND THE JASPER TX VCNTY THROUGH 07Z. ONCE ACTIVITY MOVES BEYOND THE LA BORDER...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LIKELY LESSENING THE SVR RISKS. UNTIL THEN...DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN TX...PARTICULARLY FROM JASPER TX VCNTY NWD. PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS SPREADING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION ATTM. A FEW TSTMS WERE TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN AR/ERN OK SWD INTO FAR NE TX. THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...MEAGER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO KEEP ANY SVR THREATS LIMITED TO ISOLD...MARGINALLY SVR HAILSTONES. IN SUMMARY...ASIDE FROM A SHORT-TERM LINGERING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS ECNTRL TX/UPPER TX COAST...IT APPEARS THE SVR THREATS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS WW 840. ..RACY.. 10/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30719747 33759561 34679410 34099290 31959343 30669489 30149602 30399747  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 27 10:40:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 27 Oct 2006 06:40:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271043 MSZ000-LAZ000-271215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...FAR SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 271043Z - 271215Z AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS IN A LINE MOVING ACROSS SRN LA. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW LATE TONIGHT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN MS WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD INTO WRN LA. A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN MS WHICH HAS CONFINED THE WARM SECTOR TO A SMALL AREA IN SERN LA. SFC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ORLEANS ARE BACKED WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG 50 KT WINDS AROUND 700 MB IS CREATING A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN LA. THE SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADO THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS. ALTHOUGH SRN MS IS CURRENTLY STABILIZED BY RAINFALL...CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP THE WARM SECTOR TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS FAR SRN MS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS RESULTING IN MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THERE AROUND DAYBREAK. ..BROYLES.. 10/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... 29578860 29199077 29299139 30209156 30609079 30868854  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 27 14:11:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 27 Oct 2006 10:11:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 271414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271414 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-271615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0914 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MS...SRN AL...EXTREME SERN LA...WRN FL PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 841... VALID 271414Z - 271615Z PRIMARY LINE OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WW AREA...MOST INTENSE PORTIONS CLEARING PLAQUEMINES PARISH LA AND SERN MS WITHIN BY ABOUT 16Z AND REMAINDER OF SERN LA BY ABOUT 1430Z. ADDITIONAL/BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LINE FROM PERDIDO RIVER SWWD OFFSHORE AL. SVR THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS WRN FL PANHANDLE...PERHAPS SRN TIER AL COUNTIES N OF FL BORDER...AND MAY REQUIRE EITHER ADDITIONAL WW OR LOCAL EXTENSION FOR THOSE AREAS. SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM COASTAL WATERS NEAR AAF NWWD ACROSS ESCAMBIA COUNTIES OF FL/AL....THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE AMIDST PRECIP PLUME. FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NWD THROUGH REMAINDER OF MORNING. GIVEN ITS ORIENTATION...FAVORABLE BUOYANCY EXTENDS LESS FAR INLAND WITH EWD EXTENT. RAIN-COOLED AIR IS FCST TO COVER MUCH OF SRN AL N OF FL PANHANDLE...PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION AT SFC AND PRECLUDING FASTER INLAND PENETRATION OF MARINE AIR MASS. GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE...AND FCST SLY COMPONENT OF SFC FLOW...PRIND SFC DEW POINTS MAY RECOVER INTO LOW 70S OVER COASTAL AREAS FROM AAF WNWWD TOWARD PNS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN LARGELY LINEAR ON MESOSCALE...SOME EMBEDDED/RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD ROTATE AMIDST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...WITH CONTINUED RISK OF TORNADOES. DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH SMALL BOWS. PRE-STORM LIX SOUNDING...MOB VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER SPEED SHEAR TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS -- I.E. 150-350 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH -- DESPITE LACK OF MORE PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THAT LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 10/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... 29059056 29458957 30048933 30628908 30968872 31288790 31208678 31038601 30738551 30078526 29728539 29768548 30088578 30348638 30338701 30188837 30048884 29788879 29548900 29368921 29168895 28918941 29308976 29019026  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 30 05:52:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 30 Oct 2006 00:52:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 300555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300555 NDZ000-MTZ000-301100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2174 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST SUN OCT 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT THROUGH NWRN ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 300555Z - 301100Z SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE OVER NERN MT WITH HEAVIER RATES DEVELOPING EWD INTO NWRN ND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS EVENING A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER WRN SD. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH S CNTRL SD WITH A STRONG 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ERN MT NEWD THROUGH ND. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH SRN MT/NRN WY THIS MORNING...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE OVER SD. AS THIS OCCURS A SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS ND WITH INCREASING 800-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NERN MT INTO NWRN ND. NAM PFCS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ABOVE 600 MB AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND AS MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ADVANCES SEWD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR. RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. ..DIAL.. 10/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 48580158 48070218 47050570 47480749 48520686 49060397 48960199