[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Nov 30 22:27:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 302229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302228 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0428 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS
INTO WESTERN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 302228Z - 010300Z

HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR...WILL CONTINUE/DEVELOP
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OK/SOUTHEAST KS...AND BRIEFLY
INTO CENTRAL OK...THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MO BY
02Z...WITH SNOW BECOMING HEAVY THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT SURGING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX VICINITY ASSOCIATED
WITH CLOSED CYCLONE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER.
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
COUPLED WITH 15Z SREF AND LATEST RUC/4KM WRF-NMM DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW THROUGH EARLY/MID
EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK...INCLUDING AREAS
FROM THE KS TURNPIKE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PONCA CITY/TULSA AREAS. AS
SEEN THIS AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KS/...MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COUPLED WITH NEGATIVE EPV/SLANTWISE
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS CAPABLE OF RATES
TO 2 IN/HR. ACROSS CENTRAL OK...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE OKC METRO AREA BY 00Z. IN ADDITION...STRONG
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SEEN IN THE LOWEST FEW KM OF REGIONAL
PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS WILL PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

FARTHER EAST...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MO BY 02Z...INCLUDING THE
JOPLIN/SPRINGFIELD/SEDALIA/CLINTON AREAS.

..GUYER.. 11/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

39069439 38879280 37739273 36789299 36519336 35949488
35499658 35069745 35379804 36379852 37119805 37829723
38429626 