[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Nov 29 15:32:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 291534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291533 
ILZ000-MOZ000-291700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO NEWD INTO W CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 291533Z - 291700Z

THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ATTM
AHEAD OF FRONT.  WW POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT LYING FROM QUINCY IL /UIN/
SWWD TO JUST N OF JOPLIN MO /JLN/.  A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG FRONT...WITHIN WEAKLY-UNSTABLE
AIRMASS.

THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH DAYTIME HEATING
HINDERED TO SOME DEGREE BY CLOUDINESS...500 TO 750 J/KG
SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS EXPECTED WITH MID TO UPPER 60S TEMPERATURES
AND NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS REGION.  

DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...40 TO 60 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE 850 TO
500 MB LAYER IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING STORMS.  ONE STORM IN COOPER/MONITEAU COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL MO IS NOW EXHIBITING A BOWING STRUCTURE AND IS MOVING
ENEWD NEAR 50 KT.  GIVEN ADDITIONAL/WEAK DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

..GOSS.. 11/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

39579145 40379028 40628892 39468863 38219034 37509168
36639435 37339456 

WWWW