[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Nov 6 22:54:40 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 062256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062256 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CST MON NOV 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 062256Z - 070030Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD FROM SERN MS/LA INTO
SWRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE.  IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED...WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO.

EXPANSIVE MCS CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS MS/FAR SERN LA...WHILE
TIME OF DAY AND DOWNSTREAM CLOUD COVER ARE LIMITING SURFACE HEATING.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500
J/KG/ EXTENDING INTO FAR SWRN AL.  DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /35-45 KT/ AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
SUPPORTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND LOW LEVEL ROTATION SIGNATURES
PER REGIONAL RADARS.  A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BOTH
ALONG THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE AND WITH DISCRETE STORMS
DEVELOPING IN SMALL DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR.  WEAK INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS...AND THUS MAKING
THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH UNLIKELY.

..PETERS.. 11/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

29048947 29988884 30838867 31518868 31588812 31258732
30448675 29808696 28618913 