[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 061957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061956 
TXZ000-062100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST MON NOV 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 061956Z - 062100Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
TX. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
ALTHOUGH A WW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...A WW APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION ATTM.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM EAST TX
INTO THE SRN TX HILL COUNTRY. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. OTHER STORMS ARE
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VEERING ACROSS
THE MID TO UPPER TX COASTAL PLAINS...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE...TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY COLD ALOFT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. THE THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO
THE VICTORIA AND PALACIOS AREAS.

..BROYLES.. 11/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

28779604 28469720 29529800 30119731 30459655 30399615
29339543 

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