[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 061941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061940 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-062145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST MON NOV 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 061940Z - 062145Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE LA AND FAR SRN MS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WITH ANY
ROTATING STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH A WW CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...ATTM IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
WW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX
LOCATED ACROSS SW LA. THIS FEATURE IS LOCATED JUST BEHIND A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING AND ORGANIZING ACROSS
SRN LA. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAX SHOULD SUSTAIN
THE LINE MOVING INTO SE LA WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. THE LATEST WSR-88D
VWPS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA SHOW VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BELOW 3
KM WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING ABOUT 40 KT AT 500 MB. ALTHOUGH
THE SHEAR IS NOT INCREDIBLY STRONG...IT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED CELLS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE...BUT THE WEAK
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
WW.

..BROYLES.. 11/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

28958910 28919091 29649115 30469061 31079021 31438941
30788822 

WWWW