[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 060841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060841 
TXZ000-061045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST MON NOV 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX TO THE MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 060841Z - 061045Z

ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER TSTMS
ACROSS SCNTRL TX THROUGH DAYBREAK.  A WATCH IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED SPARSE NATURE TO THE SEVERE THREAT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL TX
WITH THE STRONGEST H5-H3 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO AREAS E OF
KDRT TOWARDS THE KSAT AREA.  THIS IMPULSE IS EXTRAPOLATED TO THE
MIDDLE TX COAST BY MID-MORNING.  TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SCNTRL TX EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THESE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND/MOVE ACROSS SCNTRL TX INTO
AREAS BETWEEN KCRP AND KIAH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

00Z KDRT AND CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WERE IN EXCESS OF 7.3 DEG C/KM AMIDST
CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AOA 55 KTS.  THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO BRIEFLY ORGANIZE WITH ISOLD SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE.  GIVEN THE LARGELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH IN THE
CAPE BEARING LAYER...SPLITTING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS ALREADY
NOTED NW OF KCOT.  THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLD LARGE
HAIL...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

..RACY.. 11/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

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