[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Nov 30 17:16:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 301718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301717 
OKZ000-KSZ000-302115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 301717Z - 302115Z

SNOW WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN OK/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RATES POTENTIALLY REACHING 1.5-2.0
IN/HR AMIDST GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPRESSIVE/MATURE CYCLONE CROSSING
NORTHWEST TX AT MIDDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK
OVERSPREADING NORTHERN/CENTRAL TX. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
CYCLONE...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON VIA INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT/MESOSCALE PROCESSES
WITHIN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY SNOW. 

AS APPEARS TO ALREADY BE OCCURRING IN AN ENID/PONCA CITY OK TO
WICHITA/HUTCHISON KS CORRIDOR PER VOLUMETRIC RADAR IMAGERY AROUND
17Z...WEAK STABILITY/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
THE PREVALENCE OF SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED SNOW BANDS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL THIS MORNING VIA THE ENCROACHING MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT...HEAVY SNOW ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TO FILL-IN/INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE EMBEDDED
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE VIA BOTH UPRIGHT AND SLANTWISE
CONVECTION PER MODEL SOUNDINGS/EPV DIAGNOSTICS. WITH AN INCREASINGLY
DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT...SNOW
RATES MAY REACH 1.5-2.0 IN/HR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH
40 KT WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM PER RECENT PROFILER DATA FROM
LAMONT OK/VICI OK/HAVILAND KS.

..GUYER.. 11/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

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