[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Nov 30 02:46:16 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 300248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300248 
TXZ000-300345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870...

VALID 300248Z - 300345Z

AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS ONGOING IN CNTRL TX AND OTHER SUPERCELLS
MAY INITIATE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS WITH THE ACTIVITY.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR DALLAS
EXTENDING SWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXISTS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE
WARM SECTOR WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONT. INTENSIFICATION OF THE CELLS
MAY OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON THE LEDBETTER PROFILER
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..BROYLES.. 11/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

30149795 29289836 29399946 30139966 30569926 30649874
30579819 