[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 300034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300033 
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 869...

VALID 300033Z - 300130Z

A HAIL THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS SE OK
EXTENDING SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF TORNADO WW 869.

A LARGE BAND OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND ABOUT 60 MILES TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF
ABILENE TO NEAR DALLAS AND NORTHEAST TO FORT SMITH AR. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY HAVE HAIL POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR WACO. SO
FAR...MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY IS WEAK. AS FURTHER COOLING OCCURS THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH. THE ONE AREA THAT MAY
CONTINUE TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WOULD BE IN THE NRN TX HILL
COUNTRY WHERE A SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.

..BROYLES.. 11/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

31849731 31489850 31519942 31689966 32169967 32339890
32639819 33869626 34649555 34989508 35079480 34849446
34489437 33569500 32879571 32409630 32209674 

WWWW