[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Nov 29 16:57:54 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 291700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291659 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-292200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST OK/EASTERN KS/NORTHWEST MO AND
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL IA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 291659Z - 292200Z

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON FROM FAR NORTHEAST OK/EASTERN KS INTO NORTHWEST MO AND
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL IA. APPRECIABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHWEST
MO INCLUDING THE KC METRO AREA. 

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM
NORTH CENTRAL OK INTO EASTERN KS WITHIN THE POST-ARCTIC FRONT
REGIME. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TREND...SLEET/FREEZING RAIN HAVE
RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED AT CHANUTE KS/BUTLER CO KS/PONCA CITY OK. A
SIMILAR TREND IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE/EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST MO/KC METRO AREA AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL IA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASING WITHIN
THIS CORRIDOR IN PRESENCE OF ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/WEAK STATIC
STABILITY. 

12Z TOPEKA KS/ADJUSTED 11Z LAMONT OK OBSERVED RAOBS AND RECENT ACARS
SOUNDINGS FROM WICHITA/KANSAS CITY...ALONG WITH REGIONAL
PROFILERS...CAPTURE THE 1 KM SUB-FREEZING LAYER IN PLACE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL OK TO NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO. THIS SHALLOW COLD LAYER
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT/SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL MOISTENING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. GRADUAL ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO APPRECIABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE TO THE KC METRO
AREA AND NORTHWEST MO.

..GUYER.. 11/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

40959421 40639282 38979382 37689492 36749594 36619669
36899714 37759731 38879654 39939553 