[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Nov 29 16:53:34 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 291656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291655 
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-291800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N TX NEWD ACROSS SERN OK AND INTO NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 291655Z - 291800Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG
FRONT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS -- LIKELY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE BY
MIDDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NNWWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH MID
60S DEWPOINTS NOW EVIDENT FROM SERN OK SWWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND WRN N TX.  THOUGH RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIRMASS REMAINS
CAPPED...MODIFYING THESE SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
REVEALS ONLY A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION -- WHICH IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY
RECENT DFW ACARS SOUNDINGS.  THEREFORE...EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP/INCREASE INVOF FRONT ACROSS THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.  

500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS NOW INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION
AHEAD OF FRONT.  WITH JAYTON TX AND PURCELL OK PROFILERS INDICATING
SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60 KT ABOVE SSELY SURFACE
WINDS...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS IS IN PLACE. 
THIS COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE MD AREA.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS TO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..GOSS.. 11/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

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