[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 302211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302211 
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-302345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PLAINS OF CO/FAR NERN NM/FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 302211Z - 302345Z

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FROM ERN
CO INTO FAR NERN NM...AND SHOULD SPREAD FURTHER E TOWARDS SW KS/NW
TX AND OK PANHANDLES. MODEST...BUT INCREASING...INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. A WW
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

TSTMS HAVE ORGANIZED AND INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR
FROM ERN ADAMS/ERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES SWWD INTO ERN FREMONT COUNTIES
IN ERN CO. FURTHER S...MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES IN UNION
COUNTY NM. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS EXIST IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS E
TOWARDS THE KS BORDER. ZONE OF 40 KT WSWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL SUPPORT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH
LOW-LEVEL ENELY FLOW BENEATH WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...GENERALLY
WEAK WIND SPEEDS IN THE 0-1 KM AGL LAYER /PER AREA VAD PROFILERS/
WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 05/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

36720479 37190490 38190511 38830497 39530448 39790421
39990361 40110327 40100270 39800210 39520187 38930180
37950178 37170199 36730247 36330299 36170350 36150423
36350453 

WWWW