[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 30 16:55:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 301653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301653 
OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-301900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KY...MUCH OF IND...WRN OH AND SRN MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301653Z - 301900Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OVERALL THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
FROM IND INTO OH AND ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS UP TO
25F WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND PULSE IN
CHARACTER...WITH ANY SEVERE EVENTS REMAINING BRIEF AND ISOLATED.

..DIAL.. 05/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

41088257 39698304 37978523 37658793 41148665 42058465 