[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 29 06:58:49 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 290657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290657 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN SD...SERN ND...EXTREME
WE-CENTRAL MN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418...

VALID 290657Z - 290900Z

MCS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD APPROXIMATELY 50 KT ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS WW AREA...WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE. 
ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ATOP OUTFLOW POOL FROM MCS
ACROSS NERN NEB OR SERN SD...PRIND SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE TOO
MRGL/CONDITIONAL TO CONTINUE WW BEHIND INITIAL ACTIVITY.

TWO PRIMARY CLUSTERS ARE EVIDENT WITHIN MCS AS OF 0630Z.  ORIGINAL
BAND OF TSTMS RESPONSIBLE FOR 49 KT GUST AT PIR...AND STRONGER WINDS
EARLIER IN SWRN SD...APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING WITH OVERALL WEAKENING
TREND...BUT STILL REMAINS CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS AS IT CROSSES ND COUNTIES
LAMOURE...STUTSMAN...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
ALONG 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE AND WRN EDGE OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND GPS PW DATA.  SRN SEGMENT
WILL MOVE ACROSS ABR AREA AND NEWD TOWARD FAR...ALSO WITH SOME
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED CLOSER TO MOST
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE SFC...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN
BEHIND INTENSE GUST FRONT PRODUCED BY INITIAL SEGMENT FOR AT LEAST
2-3 MORE HOURS.  ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE OUTFLOW AIR MAY
REDUCE INTENSITY/DURATION OF GUSTS WITH SECOND CLUSTER.  GENERAL
WEAKENING TENDENCIES MAY CONTINUE...WITH POSSIBILITY THAT WW WOULD
BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION.

..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

43719806 45059933 46709989 47679936 47899864 47789735
47089637 45229634 43849766 