[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 28 20:09:05 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 282006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282006 
TXZ000-282200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SW TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 282006Z - 282200Z

PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS SW TEXAS...WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN SW TEXAS INCREASING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO AT OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG...AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATES A CU FIELD DEVELOPING IN THIS UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING TO THE NORTHWEST OF BRO.
GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
PULSING IN NATURE AND RATHER STATIONARY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA IS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THERFORE...STORMS WILL MAINLY BE
DOMINATED BY THE VERY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. SOME STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE MATURE PHASE OF THEIR CYCLE
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...AND MICROBURSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS QUICKLY COLLAPSE. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..LEVIT.. 05/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

30059971 29179890 27869832 27409752 26949749 26199742
26289811 26479884 26899922 27529939 27959983 29760116 