[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri May 26 10:33:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 261031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261031 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-261300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL
NEB...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NWRN KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261031Z - 261300Z

OCCASIONAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z FROM ACTIVITY
STRENGTHENING IN SWATH FROM SWRN NEB SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
NWRN/N-CENTRAL KS...AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD ON BOTH SIDES OF
KS/NEB BORDER. MRGLLY SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TOO DISORGANIZED TO WARRANT WW.

THERMODYNAMICALLY...NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE AIR MASS IS EVIDENT
ABOVE SFC IN RUC SOUNDINGS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH 30-40 KT SELY LLJ
SHOWN BY VWP/PROFILERS AND RELATED MOISTURE INCREASE NOTED IN
ANIMATIONS OF GPS PW DATA.  ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE
ROOTED INVOF 700 MB LEVEL...IN NW-SE BAND ALIGNED ROUGHLY FROM
LBF-SLN.  THIS CORRIDOR REPRESENTS LOW-MIDLEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE
AND MAY DRIFT EWD WITH TIME...BUT NOT AS FAST AS CONVECTIVE MOTIONS.
 WITH WEAKENING OF BOTH LLJ AND AVAILABLE BUOYANCY...CONVECTION IS
FCST TO DIMINISH WITHIN 2-3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

38109795 39570011 40420144 40970206 41350205 41570046
39009646 38419634 38059769 