[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 250125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250125 
OKZ000-KSZ000-250300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0825 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 250125Z - 250300Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
NRN AND WRN OK WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
WARRANT A WW.

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS OK AND
NORTH TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT WITH
SEVERAL WEAKNESSES IN THE CAP OVER NCNTRL OK AND NEAR THE RED RIVER
IN NW TX. AS THE CUMULUS CONTINUES TO TOWER...A FEW STORMS MAY
INITIATE BUT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY POINT OF
INITIATION APPEARS TO BE IN NRN OK NEAR A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...THE MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE SUGGESTS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LIKELY UPON INITIATION. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS.

..BROYLES.. 05/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

37019704 36779656 36379652 35839696 35279803 34949898
35129963 35569986 36239964 36919880 37029768