[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 241830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241829 
MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MISSOURI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241829Z - 242030Z

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BY
19-21Z.

CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO
BE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND THE AIRMASS IS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
THE AREA IS STILL CAPPED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
F...BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE LOW 90S F...THE CAP IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN WHAT WILL
BE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500
J/KG BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE VERTICAL SHEAR STRUCTURE IS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...HOWEVER...SPEED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL JET OF 35-50 KTS OVER THE AREA SUGGESTS STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE SOME ORGANIZATION...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE
LIKELY TO BE MULTICELLULAR. LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS.

..LEVIT.. 05/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

38209461 38339386 38409257 38449100 38169022 37819000
37359006 36639050 36499204 36529334 36569457 37109466
37809466