[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 241627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241627 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-241830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE MO INTO PARTS OF SRN IA...PARTS OF WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241627Z - 241830Z

TIMING OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WW.

BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN ON SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...
ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE MIXED
LAYER CAPE IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED BENEATH NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH HAS ADVECTED OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU
REGION.  THIS IS STILL PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION...BUT AN
AREA OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW...APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING
EAST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THIS
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT TO WEAKEN CAP...AND
SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...LIKELY BY
20-21Z...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 18-19Z.

INITIATION MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY EAST OF KANSAS CITY.  THIS SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE BASED ABOVE LINGER RADIATIONAL INVERSION...BUT WITH
CONTINUED HEATING...STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BASED IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  SHEAR PROFILES
BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...BEFORE CONSOLIDATION
INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES... LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN LONGER LIVED SUPERCELLS.

..KERR.. 05/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

39519422 40139394 40979313 41849265 41969184 41249099
40249104 39159166 38679222 38619303 38779383 38959425
39209415